저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 비트코인은 5~10년 내 10만 달러, 20년 내 100만 달러까지 갈 수 있다는 장기 낙관론. 비트코인 장기 전망: 10만→15만→20만 달러로 갈 것이며 기간은 5~10년으로 봄. 최종적으로 20년 내 코인당 100만 달러 가능성 제시. 정부 신뢰 약화로 대체 헤지 자산 수요가 늘어난다는 논리. 비트코인 보유 이력: 2012년 평균 매수단가 약 100달러대, 2013년 전체 공급량의 약 5%를 보유했다고 언급. 이후 일부 매도했다고 밝힘. 매크로 전망: 인플레이션은 과거가 됐고 금리는 연중반 인하될 것이며 연착륙(soft landing) 가능성이 높다고 봄. 이는 주식과 성장주, 암호화폐에 우호적이라고 주장. 유동성 근거: M2 통화량은 축소 중이며 이는 인플레이션 억제에 긍정적이나 금융자산에는 부담이라고 설명. MMF 자금 6조 달러 이상이 투자처를 찾을 것이라고 전망. 기술주 근거: 최근 한 달간 타격받았던 기술주(도어대시, 데이터독 등)가 급등했다는 사례를 제시. 리스크 및 조건: 비트코인은 실질적 효용보다 신뢰 게임이라고 본인이 인정. 포트폴리오의 1% 정도만 투자하는 '보험' 개념을 권고. 출연자 전망: 장기 낙관 유지. 특정 단기 가격 목표는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
where is it going it's probably going to 100 than 150 than 200,000 in what period I don't know 5 years 10 years but it's going there and the reason is because every time you see all of this stuff happening it just reminds you that wow our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be and so just in case we really do need to have some kind of you know insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated head this is now the beginning of the new fiscal year for the entire mutual fund complex so that's trillions of dollars that have to get deployed because even though you pay them a very small fee per year you're not paying them to hold cash you're paying them to make decisions and own assets and then as you said freedberg the last part of this is now you introduce rate cuts and that's a real accelerant now more than likely I think what that means is that markets are set up to to do pretty well Equity markets specifically what is all of this saying I think what what it's kind of saying is inflation is very much in the rearview mirror rates are going to get cut by the middle part of the year the economy looks like it's going to be a soft Landing that is actually very beneficial for the sitting president it's also good for equities it's good for us so it's really interesting actually I think we've had a fundamental kind of now change welcome back to money 101 renowned Tech investor chamath Palapa predicts bitcoin's trajectory $100,000 then $200,000 ultimately reaching $1 million per coin in the next two decades piapa a former Facebook executive and Silicon Valley figure was an early Bitcoin investor acquiring 5% of the total Supply with an average Buy price near $100 in 2012 in his recent all-in podcast episode he discussed the macro environment suggesting a favorable outlook for assets like growth stocks Bitcoin and crypto due to a potential sof S Landing by the FED stick around for shim's latest Bitcoin price predictions for timely crypto updates subscribe to the channel now let's hear sheth's latest Outlook I I did a little Tea Leaf reading on macro if you guys wanted I have some charts just I'm going just give you a little rundown of because I I went and I you know look we used to talk about these things when I was when we were doing a lot of forecasting going into this cycle but so here's like a couple of really interesting observations so the first one is when you look at this M2 money supply look how much it's actually shrunk now why that's interesting to me is that you have these two forces that are opposing each other one is we have these huge deficits so we're technically still frankly issuing a lot of money right but then on the other side we have QT so when debt rolls off we're not reissuing it and the balance of that is still a really constructive thing where now you can see that you know M2 has materially started to shrink and I think that that's a really positive thing because now what that does it it combats inflation in a good way unfortunately for all of us it hurts Financial assets which is not so good I think we've all felt that pain but the reality is that that's been working so then Nick if you go to the second chart so what you see now is like we are in a really decent place with inflation and if you think about what's going to happen over the next 6 months it's mostly in the bag and meaning we talked about this before but there's a lag effect on a handful of components specifically rents which when you roll them into this inflation rate you're going to see it really really turn over very quickly right so we know that inflation is falling it's going to fall even more the second thing Nick the third chart here is you can see that now validated in these 10-year break events remember this was the chart we used to look at when we were like holy mackerel something's going to break in November of 21 I think we probably should have just sold everything we had in November 21 we didn't do it but the point is now we know and what you see here is the 10-year break evens are also telling us okay guys we're going to be in a pretty decent place and so I think the setup is basically the following there's less money in the system that's a positive Nick if you show the last chart there's more money on the sidelines and this is just a picture of I mean look at the amount of money in Money Market funds 6 trillion and growing so that's a really positive sign which is that money will need to find a home once no even just now because you're going to you're going to be in a situation where and I'll get to this in a second but companies are now starting to perform because they've been able to rebaseline against very very Lowered Expectations right and and money manager have to do their job and deploy capital and that's something we mentioned I think last week but this is now the beginning of the new fiscal year for the entire mutual fund complex so that's trillions of dollars that have to get deployed because even though you pay them a very small fee per year you're not paying them to hold cash you're paying them to make decisions and own assets and then as you said freedberg the last part of this is now you introduce rate cuts and that's a real accelerate now more than likely I think what that means is that markets are set up to to do pretty well Equity markets specifically and so I went and I said well how can we see some data that proves that this is happening and what's amazing is if you look at the performance of what I would call the most risk adjusted seeking companies so those are Tech businesses that have been absolutely hammered what you see in the last month is they have gone just nuclear aen up 30% in a matter of a week door Dash is up up you know 25 30% in a matter of a week data dog up 30% in the matter of a week these are the businesses that were just completely decimated so what is all of this saying I think what what it's kind of saying is inflation is very much in the rearview mirror rates are going to get cut by the middle part of the year the economy looks like it's going to be a soft Landing that is actually very beneficial for the sitting president it's also good for equities it's good for us so it's really interesting actually I think we've had a fundamental kind of now change I mean can you play the clip in 2012 and 13 when it was at 200 and everybody was laughing at me on cfbc every time I would talk about Bitcoin um where is it going it's probably going to 100 then 150 than 200,000 in what period I don't know 5 years 10 years but it's going there and the reason is because every time you see all of this stuff happening it just reminds you that wow our leaders are not as trustworthy and reliable as they used to be and so just in case we really do need to have some kind of you know insurance we can keep under our pillow that gives us some access to an uncorrelated hedge and it's going to eventually transition to something much more important but for right now you're just getting all these data points that prove this thing it's just the fabric of society is afraid and until we figure out how to make it better it's time to just have a little schmuck insurance on the side and everybody's running in it's just an incredible thing I could never have imagined it it is out of control like look let's can we talk Bitcoin let's talk Bitcoin 2003 2012 I was introduced to it I started to accumulate accumulate 2013 I wrote an article and so you're hold on just so we just so we know and can feel bad about ourselves you're accumulating it at what price uh well my dollar cost average is around hundred and something and and you've held it everything you've bought well at one point myself and you know two so I was introduced to it by a person I asked him if I could disclose his name he said no but he myself and another person all three of us relatively well known in the valley we went and we started at one point we owned almost 5% of the entire float in 2013 uh We've sold they've sold etc etc I wish we had kept it all we didn't uh it's fine um but then I wrote an article and I said you know what there's so much asymmetric upside here this is a thing that either go to you know at the time I said roughly the value of gold and at the time it was about $100 a coin and so there's very little downside there's all this asymmetric upside I said take 1% of your net worth and buy this schmuck insurance and it's a schmuck Insurance in this kind of very elegant beautiful way theu insurance that was at $100 though what would you I mean I I I actually started hearing from people that I know very well who who don't often invest who are now asking me if this is the time to buy the SM insurance now here here's the thing this is now a confidence game right there is no real utility in this this is a fantastic fundamental hedge and store of value against autocratic regimes and banking infrastructure that we know is corrosive to how the world needs to work properly you cannot have central banks infinitely printing currency you cannot have folks with you know misguided and misdirected monetary and fiscal policy no um so here's what I would say the same way that I said in 2013 put 1% your net worth into Bitcoin I will put myself out there today I think this thing is a $100,000 a coin probably in the next 3 to 4 years and I think it is in the next 20 years a million dollars a coin so there you have what I'm saying is you could buy the S&P 500 Index buy 99% of that so if you have $100 to invest what I'm saying is put $1 put $1 and and the reason that $1 is so valuable is that it is fundamentally not correlated to the other 99 and just on the off chance that all the people that manage the 99 may not totally know what they're doing the $1 may actually save us here's chamath popedia Bitcoin forecast shaped by his early investment and Keen Market understanding chamath envisions Bitcoin reaching $100,000 then $200,000 and eventually $1 million per coin in the next two decades despite the optimistic Outlook these predictions are rooted in a comprehensive analysis of the current economic landscape and the changing dynamics of digital currencies chat's insights into the potential Federal Reserve soft landing and its impact on riskier assets such as Bitcoin and growth stocks offer valuable considerations for both investors and enthusiasts hope you found today's video valuable see you in the next one and all the best
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