저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 2023년은 세계 부채 부담과 임금 인플레이션으로 인플레이션이 생각보다 잘 안 잡히며, 경기침체와 부채·소비신용 위기가 동시에 올 수 있다는 비관적 전망. 인플레이션은 에너지(2021)→재화(2022)→임금(2023) 순으로 전이되었고, 노동 쪽으로 힘이 기울며 임금 인플레가 물가를 높게 유지할 것으로 봄. 세계 부채는 약 235조 달러이며 이자 부담이 연 5~15조 달러로 신흥국 국채 시장 중심의 부채 위기가 올 수 있고, IMF가 이를 떠안아 비난받을 것이라 예상. 벤처 시장은 성장 라운드 자금이 말라 기업 대부분이 도산하고 소수만 살아남는다는 전망. 하드웨어·바이오·기업소프트웨어가 특히 타격. 빅테크·기업의 감원이 이어지며 화이트칼라 일자리가 줄어든다고 봄(아마존 1.8만 명, 세일즈포스 8천 명 등). 소비자 신용이 한계에 달해 신용카드 연체와 부채 부담이 2023년 중 벽에 부딪힐 것이며, 상업용 부동산(샌프란시스코 오피스)과 정크본드에도 압박이 올 것으로 봄. 러시아-중국 대규모 거래, 사우디-중국 위안화 원유 결제 가능성을 언급하며 달러 기축통화 지위가 2023년 말부터 약화될 수 있다는 장기 역발상 베팅. 투자 전략으로는 현금과 단기국채(T-bill~2년물)에 머물며 연 4.5~5% 수익을 확보하고, 바닥을 잡으려 하기보다 확실한 반등 신호 뒤에 진입하는 것을 권장. 에너지 섹터에 대해서는 과열 우려로 선호를 밝힘. 출연자 중 추가 발언자(Sacks, Freeberg, Jason 등)의 견해도 기술 업종 침체·상업용 부동산 위기·소비 축소를 공통적으로 전망.
다듬은 글
inflation which people expect to fall off a cliff doesn't fall off a cliff as fast or as meaningfully as people want and so I will explain inflation as three different chapters and we've seen the first two chapters play out so 2021 chapter one was all about energy inflation and you know we all talked about having almost $10 gas at the pump and what does it mean for everybody and it caused that initial spike in inflation and then we had it come off and sax called this he said you we're going to have this sort of double hump and 2022 was really the story of goods inflation right all these prices and all of these things went up because the input costs went up and we all had to Bear the implications of that but then that started to EB now if you looked at the tail end of 2022 what I found super interesting was the number of articles I saw about wage inflation whether that was Biden using an 1800's AOL law to prevent a Railroad Strike the number of states that increased minimum wage the trend around unionization so in general my thought is that the pendulum is swinging very markedly away from capital and towards labor and as the labor participation rate stays low and continues to go down and also it's compounded by an unemployment rate that may go up right people are it's going to be harder and harder to get people to do the work you need at the company you have unless you pay them more and if that gets exaggerated then inflation will stay where it is it won't be as muted and it won't fall off a cliff as people want beist that's my big contrarian got it wager for this year is that we see wage inflation that keeps inflation not going down as much as people want here's what I think's going to happen this year my big prediction is based on I think the world has too much debt I think that the economic slowdown coupled with Rising interest rates globally and a dir of kind of asset Capital inflows means that there's going to be a lot of issues with a number of debt markets around the world particularly kind of emerging sovereign debt just to give you guys a Global debt is about $235 trillion in public and private you know that's somewhere between $5 and15 trillion of interest payments a year depending on what net rate is on $96 trillion Global GDP and there's another trillion and a half of unfunded liabilities in the US and pensions and Social Security and all this sort of stuff I think this is the year where a lot of the debt markets start to unravel The Entity that steps in to try and support these unwinding moments is the IMF and I think that no matter what the IMF does they're going to look bad it's sort of like Jerome pal this past year right like you raised rates too late you ra rates too quickly no matter what you do it has some adverse effect and impact it's either inflationary or it impacts growth and so I think the IMF is going to get a lot of heat for either acting not fast enough or acting too aggressively and causing inflation as a bunch of these markets face credit risk this year so My Big bet is the IMF is going to play a major role and we're going to be talking a lot about the IMF later this year I think as a result the IMF will get a lot of heat and you'll end up seeing a lot of pressure and political you know just like we blame NATO just like we blame Jerome pal on the FED we'll end up blaming the IMF for a bunch of problems that'll arise but the natural physics of what's going on is the world has too much debt and not enough growth to cover the debt the cost of debt that's it as you guys know there's been a big shift in capital allocation a lot of the folks who were writing big checks into growth rounds are retreating back to writing smaller checks and seed and a rounds they don't want to write the $20 million series B they want to write the $5 million SE in a round no one wants to kind of follow the valuation no one wants to set the valuation for these growth businesses particularly if after this round you know you need another big round of capital and no one sure if someone's going to be waiting on the other end as a result we're seeing tons of these businesses run into Capital infusion walls they can't pivot I think we'll see what we saw in the bubble where 99 a.
half% of these companies actually die the half% that win are going to emerge as the next hundred billion Enterprises the Google and Amazon of the world so there will be light at the end of the tunnel for the winners but generally there are hundreds of companies in Hardware in sin bio in biotech in high growth Enterprise uh software that require significant sales investment expense a lot of these businesses were the capital in intensive nature of the business just doesn't have the market for it right now and investors are all retreating and they're going to be selective so okay sacks biggest business loser for 2023 well I just by the way 100% agree with what freeberg said but my biggest loser for business in 23 is the consumer I just don't understand how the consumer isn't going to finally tap out in this economy I mean they have a mountain of personal debt credit card debts at all time highs I think the average credit card rate hit 19.6% last week and it's expected to rise even further mortgage rates are above 7% now so forget about trying to buy a new home or sell your home and your stock portfolio is down to and now layoffs are starting to pile up so I just don't understand how we're going to avoid a recession and you saw you know cash Cari saying that the fed's going to keep raising 5.4% is his prediction you know I don't understand how if rates are at 55% that doesn't finally break the back of this economy and uh we go into recession do you think saaks that the economy is actually broken right now we just don't have the data cuz the data lags 60 days in most people's minds cuz it does feel like the consumer is just and real estate has just broken at this very moment it seems like it I mean the pain is very unequal right but in the tech industry we've been in a recession for a year I mean like the grow stocks are down to 80% what freeberg said is true no one's going to fund these you know High burning companies there's an enormous amount of retooling that has to happen look I think the recession is here is just very unequally distributed distributed exactly but the people that really get screwed as Jason said are the common shareholders because eventually those converts deals that do get done those people will end up owning the company the cap table gets completely flushed and reset and the employees get wiped up yeah they're wiped people that do all the work get and the people do none of the work and who just want to maintain this shell game gets to basically Live Another Day why collar workers with no hard skills Twitter going down to I think you know Elon said a couple hundred people is all you need to run Twitter and I think he said he has 2,000 employees or something like that he has shown everybody you know Hey listen more can be done with less these things are overstaffed in a massive way I think white color work workers now the idea that you're going to have four offers and you're going to be able to play them off each other is over white col workers AKA surpress Elites people who actually you know are mid managers who don't actually code or don't actually build a product or sell a product don't actually do real work as I think many people would frame it in the Manero class or the CEO class man they're going to have a hard time and this week Amazon Andy cut 18,000 white collar workers not the Blue Collar the white collar workers in Amazon that was a big turning point and Benny off he does not like to lay people off he considers Salesforce or family he laid off 8,000 I mean the reason is pretty simple right their grow slowed down by 2/3 in the most recent quarter but they still spending the same amount on sales and marketing so when that happens your ca payback explodes right you go from 3 years pay back to like 10 years so they have to cut costs in order to rationalize your unit economics and now it Cascades right because all of Salesforce vendors are going to be getting less money from Salesforce because they're tightening their belts so then those companies are going to have to cut and the cycle just keeps going and going right everybody tightens their balls at the same time freezes the economy AKA recession there will be a deal between uh Putin and G and they met by satellite late last week to discuss ways to further help each other in 2023 Putin characterized it as a no limits partnership you may remember that the two of them ined a $175 billion gas deal in early February last year that was 3 weeks before Putin invaded Ukraine I think now Russia is even more dependent on China we've really driven Russia into China's arms and I think there will be a big deal not just on energy but on agriculture C products mineral products and rare earth minerals that you know chth likes to talk about I think there could be a trillion doll deal between Russia and China this year going to go out and live and make prediction I think that's the Saudi China trade if this happens and oil is sold in Yuan it marks the beginning of the end of the assumption that the US dollar is the global reserve and the risk-free currency in reserve for the world this year exiting 2023 it may be the case that you know there's historically been this belief and this continuing belief that the US dollar will always be the deao global Reserve currency and the current Mantra is that it's better than the rest everyone else is worse off than the US Western Europe is in trouble Japan is in trouble China's in trouble everyone's in trouble but if there is a coalition an economic Coalition a scaled economic Coalition that starts to shift the balance of power a little bit and the US meanwhile is taking on extraordinary debt load spending $1.7 trillion in an Omnibus Bill you know has this massive unfunded social security problem coming down the pipe and are trying to manage multiple funded conflicts around the world it could be that the US dollar coming out of 2023 starts to trade more like a risk asset and less like a risk-free asset and so I think that that's my big contrarian bet is that maybe this year marks the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the kind of global deao Reserve currency based on some of these big trades that I talked about happening so that that would be my um my big kind of contrarian perfectly set I think that there's still a lot of UN certainty in the world and in the markets and so I'm generally concerned that there's a lot of chop and so I pick something that's pretty conservative but I would have a combination of cash and the front end of the yield curve so t- bills all the way up to two-ear bonds so you can generate four and a half probably by the end of this year 5% pretty safely owning this stuff while you wait for things to become more certain and the way that I think about it is that I would rather miss the first 10 or 15% of a rally once we're really done this stuff then try to overcorrect and try to pick a bottom just because I think that you could lose a lot of money so I think the goal for this year is to stay resilient and in the game and so owning having a bunch of cash on the sideline is ready to pound it in meanwhile a portion of it collecting 5% is not such a bad thing while you wait for the botom Fantastic yeah my answer was actually very very similar which is if cashar is right that rates are going to 5.4% why would you just put all your money in short-term T bills you earn five 5 a half% risk- free yeah like set it in forget it yeah and that's why Capital flows are moving hugely right now from equities into bonds especially if we're going to a recession which is inherently deflationary worst performing asset I went with energy because not that I think it's not important but it just feels like everybody rushed into it in 2022 so it feels like it's overheated and if we are in a recession people might lower consumption in terms of energy and be looking for cheaper alternativ so could be overheated so I went with energy shamat I think that if we've learned anything from the last 3 years you have to separate the valuation of a company and how it performs in stock market with its value in society so for example if you look at Zoom zoom's valuation has cratered but its value in society has probably continued to go up it's still massively relied upon tool the point is that markets do not give you credit for the value in society they will give you credit when you are about to over earn but then they'll pull it all back when they think that you're going to under earn so in that lens I think that Tech will have a tough year I think energy will have a really year and probably the biggest asset class that is going to get pressure sht is going to be junk debt and the reason is a bunch of these variable rate loans when rates are at 5 and 6% that all of a sudden are like 11 12 13 14% coupons a bunch of companies will have trouble meeting their debt obligations and we'll have to restructure the debt or we'll have to file subcategory but J just said I think office Towers in San Francisco are that is some serious toxic debt 27% vacancy rates and growing as Lisa's role I think that a lot of these buildings Maybe virtually all of the San Francisco downtown is going to be owned by the bank soon specifically the office Towers cuz no one wants to be in those skyscraper buildings south of Market you know Meed in homelessness remember this was the hottest commercial real estate market in the country a few years ago and now it's the worst look what happened to B what do you think about that crazy thing that happened with the Blackstone re I mean that's nuts yeah Blackstone has a product called B it's like a70 billion exchange traded fund effectively and what it is is the ability for individual investors to own access to Blackstone you know commercial real estate portfolio and they had such a massive amount of redemptions that they had to close redemptions at the end of Q4 and they were worried that the redemptions were going to continue to go up these are individual investors who basically sees the writing on the wall as David said and wants their money out and so they went to the University of California pension system and they essentially got a huge infusion of capital I think it was about $4 billion where they guaranteed 112% interest to these guys for the $4 billion and they also posted a billion dollars of their own equity in the act ual re to back stop it what does it show you I think what Sak is saying is really right it may not just be in San Francisco but you know with all of these people either getting laid off with all of these people now working remotely we may finally start to see the beginning of the Reckoning in commercial real estate which has been an unbelievably performance asset class up until right about now and and on top of that you have to factor in these much higher rates and so these building owners if they financed it which they invariably have always financed they have huge variable rate payments that are due on these buildings the rent roles are lower even people like Twitter as is refusing to pay the rent so you have to take them to court so it alates when they have to pay and so you could miss a bunch of rent payments and all of a sudden the banks could just go crazy and take ownership with these things it's really simple I've mentioned it before it's Consumer Credit we assume that Rising rates and inflation would taper down consumer demand meaning consumers buying goods and stuff and that certainly hasn't happened I'm in Vegas right now I was in the car yesterday and the driver grew up in Vegas he's like I've lived my whole life in Vegas he's like I've never seen a December like we just had it was packed the entire month like normally in Vegas it's dead up until Christmas and then New Year's people come into town but it's normally dead like I've never seen such a busy month and I think we see this in the numbers consumers are still spending like it's 2021 they're still spending like interest rates are zero as we talked about consumer credit is skyrocketing wall rates are skyrocketing and so I think we're going to run into a real wall with respect to Consumer Credit sometime this year and you're going to see such a complicated interwoven Market of assets there's a lot of different ways to trade it but I think it's going to be in general consumers are not going to be able to meet their debt obligations could be more credit card debt defaults are coming the market has priced in a bunch of this stuff obviously companies like a firm and you know the what do they called buy now pay later companies credit card companies mortgages there's a lot of assets that you can start to kind of pick apart where do you think this unravels first what gets hit hardest what's underpriced and overpriced probably a lot of good pair trading to do as jamat kind of loves to talk about with respect to which of these are more likely or less likely to be sensitive to this Dynamic but it's going to be a pretty ugly scene consumers just have way too much debt relative to their earnings right now and it's pretty nasty and they have some confidence that they always have a job or some way to pay there for easy payment dude muscle memory is serious you know you come out of 2021 when you had it's not just stimulus checks it was the low interest rate and easy credit availability everywhere and it's just easy to jump into getting new stuff and cool stuff and then when you get used to getting new stuff every week or every month you kind of stick with it and you're like I don't want to give it up just yet I just not just yet not just yet you know and so it's hard to kind of step back from spending when you have a new type of lifestyle and I think that's what's going on I think this is an incredible observation this guy that runs car dealerships and he sent them out how much incredible money what a significant percentage of people's income they are spending on their monthly car payments and people buy these cars that are well beyond what should be kind of a reasonable budget and the stretching is going to snap this year yeah absolutely most anticipated trend of 2023 related to yours I went with austerity I have a friend who sometimes flies private often and I was talking to him about his Christmas vacation this friend of mine shach instead of flying private to his vacation he had to pick up his kids he had to go back and forth he was driving his car who would normally buy privates El Lake to and he's like no I can't go out with you skiing on Friday I got to pick up my kids and then I'm driving back I said wait a second how are you doing that he's like I'm driving a car I said what who's driving the car he said I'm driving the car and that's why I say austerity is my anticipated TR 23 and3 I agree with you I actually think this is a really good opportunity to pull back on so much waste I haven't really looked at my household budget in probably 2 or 3 years didn't even bother and then when I looked at it I was like wow this is really inflated to a level that I didn't expect yes but it makes a lot of sense to live in a more heads down allair way
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