저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 비트코인의 장기 상승(5~7년 기준 기본 65만달러, 풀케이스 약 2배)을 확신하며, 금리는 하락하고 디플레이션 위험이 더 크다고 본다. 비트코인 전망: 기관 자금 유입으로 공급(약 1,900만 개 유통, 최대 2,100만 개) 대비 수요가 급증해 가격이 급등할 수 있다고 주장. 5~7년 기본 시나리오 65만달러, 풀케이스는 그 두 배 수준. SEC·ETF: 그레이스케일 소송에서 SEC가 패소할 가능성이 크고, 이후 현물 비트코인 ETF가 대거 승인될 수 있다고 전망. 다만 ARK의 ETF 신청과 관련해서는 SEC 심사 중이라 언급 제한. 암호화폐 시장 규모: 2030년 전체 암호화폐 자산 시장을 약 25조달러로 전망하며, 현재 약 1조달러 수준 대비 크게 성장하고 비트코인이 그 절반 이상을 차지할 것으로 봄. 비트코인은 주식·채권과 상관관계가 낮은 새로운 자산군이라고 설명. 정책·정치: 법·입법의 명확성이 수년 내 확보될 것으로 예상. 2024년 선거 이슈로 부상해 초당파적 지지가 늘고 있다고 언급. 코인베이스: 블랙록과의 계약을 기관 진입 통로로 평가하며 여전히 주요 보유 종목이라고 밝힘. 래리 핑크(블랙록)의 비트코인 태도 변화도 언급. 에너지·채굴: 엑손모빌의 천연가스 플레어링 대신 비트코인 채굴 활용, 태양광 잉여 전력 활용 등 환경 문제 해결 사례를 긍정적으로 언급. 금리·경기: 금리는 하락할 것으로 전망하며, 인플레이션보다 디플레이션이 더 큰 위험이라고 주장. 명목 매출 성장률 둔화, 일부 기업 실질 매출 감소를 근거로 제시. 경기 연착륙보다 hard landing 가능성을 더 크게 봄. 통화량(M2)은 전년 대비 3% 이상 감소 상태. 주식 시장: 올해 상반기 매그니피센트 7 중 테슬라와 소량의 메타만 보유했음에도 나스닥100을 상회 성과. 혁신 기업으로 상승장이 확산되는 것을 긍정적으로 평가. 전통 산업 질서는 혁신으로 인한 큰 혼란이 예상된다고 언급. 리스크: 기업 가이던스 하락, 인건비 부담에 따른 이익률 압박, 전통 산업의 disruption.
다듬은 글
so it could happen it could happen quickly and you know I think from an Institutional point of view then uh I think we're going to see um a a serious move in and what's interesting about that is the number of Bitcoin outstanding now is 19 is million and the maximum will be 21 million if institutions want to move in that's going to be a lot of incremental demand for not that much more incremental Supply so the only one to the only way to uh to then do that is to bid the price up if they really want to be a part of that you know I we we tend to We tend to be five years in our uh prediction so the the five five to sevene forecast is in base case would be 650,000 and then full case would be about double that well we're in the news for our BC Jo ETF filing and because it's with the SEC we cannot say anything but I am re I really do believe that uh the SEC is going to lose the grayscale case and that's going to happen pretty soon and that one of the ways that the SEC could respond is to turn around and uh change the subject and and uh approve not just one Bitcoin ETF but a lot of the ones that are on the dockum right now so it could happen it could happen quickly and you know I think from an Institutional point of view then uh I think we're going to see um a a serious move in and what's interesting about that is the number of Bitcoin outstanding now is 19 is million and the maximum will be 21 million if institutions want to move in that's going to be a lot of incremental Dem demand for not that much more incremental Supply so the only one to the only way to uh to then do that is to bid the price up if they really want to be a part of that and I'm we're going to thr couple minutes or but your Bitcoin prediction at one point is a million dollars a coin are you still a big believer in Bitcoin yes yes yes absolutely absolutely ever more so first Global uh private no government oversight digital rules-based monetary system the world has ever known that's a big idea and we think the total crypto asset Market in 2030 will be valued at roughly $25 trillion right now right now it's a little over a trillion uh and we think that Bitcoin is going to be more than half of that do you have a prediction for this year or next year 2024 you know I we we tend to We tend to be five years in our uh prediction so the the five five to seveny year forecast is in base case would be 650,000 and then full Cas would be about double that yeah I think I I think uh institutions will be a big part of it this is a new asset class uh very low correlations with any other asset class except at Extremes in uh all markets the correlations go to one uh so yes and I also I think a Bitcoin ETF approval will help I think uh judicial you know judicial Clarity legislative Clarity is all going to happen within the next uh few years this is an election year issue I already know some young people who have switched their allegiance when when it seemed like Elizabeth Warren was going to lead the Democrats into the anti- crypto world uh I know of some uh young individuals whom I never thought would uh change their allegiance changed uh shifted from Democrats to Republicans now it's becoming a little more bipartisan in the legislative branch and I think it is because it's becoming an election year issue and so you can't be on the wrong side of of young people and win an election yeah that is awesome so just two last questions so coinbase is still when your one of your largest Holdings in the crypto space You You Believe in coinbase still like big oh yes yes absolutely we think it's going to be the institutional on-ramp it it signed the deal with black rock and I think that was that was a very big deal in terms of um you know Larry thinkink Larry thinkink is now all about Bitcoin and so it's getting much more institutional Focus you will remember there was a time when Larry think said Bitcoin is environmental mentally a a menace uh and I don't think he's talking about that anymore because actually Bitcoin is solving some environmental problems now that Exxon is putting Bitcoin mining machines into natural gas Fields so that uh instead of flaring the natural gas it can be used to Mint Bitcoin so there and utility ecosystems are using it to uh in their solar ecos systems when the sun's you know created too much energy it'll pour into Bitcoin mining and they can overbuild solar and wind so you know this is the convergence of of so uh we have a very strong point of view about what's going to happen to interest rates uh we think they're going to fall and surprisingly so because we think the bigger risk out there is not inflation it is deflation you know and you can look at you can tell me oh these economic statistics are saying the economy is fine you know you take a look at some of these earnings reports and the headline will be oh they beat their revenue and earnings but what happens if you look deep into it the guidance has been falling for a long time and many companies are showing little to no nominal growth uh so forget about inflation nominal Revenue growth is diminishing and by some measures uh real Revenue growth has been negative in units terms for the last two quarters on a year-over-year basis well I think uh We've dropped inflation from 9% in June of 22 to 3% a little over 3% headline CPI uh um in July of this year so it's coming down on uh money growth is negative on a year-over-year basis uh down more than 3% it's been negative since the the beginning of the year uh and monetary policy y operates on the economy with a lag so we actually think there's going to be a harder Landing uh than most people think and certainly when it comes to profit margins now that all of these companies are agreeing to these huge wage bills you know uh in a very unhealthy Market what tends to happen is the market Narrows and a lot of people have been concerned that the Magnificent Seven have taken so much oxygen out of the room in terms of this uh Year's rally uh what what gratified Us in the first 6 months of the year is despite not owning any of The Magnificent Seven except for Tesla uh we outperformed even the cues uh and um we owned a slight bit of meta but uh a partial position uh that tells us that the the bull market and Innovation is broadening out uh and that's a healthy development for inov as for the rest of the market I don't know I think there's going to be a lot of um disruption and dislocation in the traditional World Order because of innovation uh so I'm happy to see Innovation is broadening out in terms of the market rewarding it we'll see if that happens for the market as a whole for the broad-based indices
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