저자: 미상 · 외국인
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비트코인 2018년 폭락 가능성을 다룬 영상이다. 결론: 비트코인 버블 붕괴 가능성은 있으나 2018년에 반드시 일어난다고 단정할 수 없으며, 붕괴 시 경제 악화가 촉매가 된다는 견해다. 비트코인 가격 배경: 9,700달러 신고점 경신, 연초 대비 1,000% 이상 상승, 금의 7배 가치, 시가총액이 디즈니를 넘어섰다는 언급이 나온다. 비관론 근거: 현금흐름(배당·임대수익 등)이 없어 가치가 다음 매수자의 지불 의사에만 의존하고, 금과 유사하게 내재가치가 없다는 주장이 제시된다. 'Buy bitcoin with credit card' 검색량이 역사적 고점 근처라는 점을 버블 신호로 든다. 낙관론 근거: 기술 혁신 관점에서 장기적으로 의미 있는 분야이며 똑똑한 사람들이 몰두하고 있다는 주장이 소개된다. 나스닥 2000년 버블 비교: 1995년 1,000pt 미만에서 2000년 약 5,000pt까지 올랐다가 2년 내 대폭 하락했고, 원금 회복에 약 14년이 걸렸다는 사례를 든다. 비트코인 상승률이 당시보다 훨씬 가파르다고 평가한다. 붕괴 조건: 50% 이상 하락하려면 경제 침체가 필요하며, 펀드 매니저들이 자금을 회수할 때 가장 먼저 암호화폐를 매도할 것이라고 본다. 리스크: 장기 강세 전망이더라도 단기 손실이 크고 원금 회복에 10~20년이 걸릴 수 있으니 주의가 필요하다는 경고다. 출연자 전망: 단기 2018년 붕괴 가능성은 열려 있으나 확신은 없고, 장기적 생존 가능성은 높게 본다. 이 영상은 특정 종목 매매 권유가 아닌 시장 리스크 논의 중심이다.
다듬은 글
I saw something today in regards to Bitcoin that really scared me it really scared me guys that we got to discuss this but we're gonna kind of discussed like is Bitcoin gonna crash in 2018 is this gonna happen or we gonna have some negative things happen I'm gonna show you guys a lot of things that will kind of open up your mind they're kind of seen both angles of it why Bitcoin might not crash and why Bitcoin could crash in 2018 kind of explore this in Bitcoin something you know in crypto currencies in general or something that I used to not like to talk about it all because people would always request it and I was like I don't really want to talk about now I really love to talk about it one because there's so much interest in it too because I don't have a stake either way in this game I'm not short Bitcoin I don't even know if there's a way you can short cryptocurrencies and things like that I'm sure there is I haven't looked into it but I'm not short anything I'm not short any stocks that are related to Bitcoin or crypto currencies at the same time I'm not long so I'm completely unbiased in this whole game I'm just kind of looking at it from my perspective as an innocent bystander and just watching all this and you know I know a lot of history of the markets and and different things that have happened and whatnot and like I said I saw something today that really really scared me guys so let's look at this here so if we see here Bitcoin has hit a record high after passing $9,000 and it's close to reaching five figures as investors and the crypto currency shrug off warnings of a bobble the cryptocurrency rose to an all-time high of 97 hundred dollars on Monday it's now worth more than seven times and ounce of gold which is seen as this safe haven in terms and you know times of turmoil and by the way bitcoins up well over a thousand percent to this year guys it's absolutely insane now this guy that kind of has a negative perspective on and wilson added but for traditionalists it's hard to fathom rather than then a commodity or currency bitcoin is like owning a stock in a company that will will issue 21 million shares and will never ever pay a dividend the only way it happen is this quote from him the only way it has value is if the next guy is willing to pay more for the greater fool with no intrinsic value to Bitcoin it's hard to see this as any anything other than a giant speculation bubble he says here we look at the value of Bitcoin you know it's just been extraordinary over the past few years for secretary since around 2000 you know 15-time I mean look at that chart it's absolutely amazing here and we'll get to the scary part here in just a second guys but I do want to kind of address his point there which was Bitcoin you're never gonna get something back for that other than what the other person is willing to pay for depending on what the other person's willing to pay for it is what you get back in return it's different than most investment asset classes when you look at something as an investment purpose right if you look at a stock okay let's say a stock you know for whatever reason you hold the stock for five years and it doesn't go up in value it's still the same value or maybe it's even less well the company hopefully is making good profits something you say well what the hell I don't know why our stocks isn't going up let's play out a bunch of money to you in dividend so at least you get payment somehow okay that's how stocks work real estate okay let's say for some reason your house is doesn't go up in value you hold it for ten years you buy this house it doesn't go up in value right well what can you do with that house you can go rent it to somebody else and you can make some type of income you make some type of cash flow coming back to you if you own a business right and you want to sell that business no one wants to buy your business right well hopefully that business is making profits for you and so you're getting a positive cash flow back from their business bitcoin is not like that at all bitcoin the only way you have you hope that is worth more is if is the other person's willing to pay more in the future it's never gonna pay you out money back to it unless somebody else pays you back money for that in the future okay it's it's very similar to gold almost in that sense right except gold actually has some some value as far as like people actually wear it in those jewelry and whatnot but for the instance Gold only the only way you're gonna make more money on gold is if the next guys willing to pay more for that gold then what you paid for that gold okay so that's very interesting now the thing that really scared me here guys I saw something that I'm like this is freaking scary buy bitcoin with credit card is on the rise on Google sparking Bubble fears the Google search term quote buy bitcoin with credit card is around its historic peak as price skills to new high other search trends showed that Bitcoin holds a solid lead in Google quest for digital currencies even though it has a growing list of competitors but Mitchell Goldberg requiring first strategy says that Bitcoin craze is a sign that we've entered the file and stupidest part of the bull market he says okay he says that now on the opposite on the opposite end here this guy named Jeff Morris jr.
I believe he works at tender I want to say he says most of the smartest thinkers I know in the cryptocurrency space are in the cryptocurrency space you can call this a bubble or you can educate yourself and try to understand why so many brilliant people are dedicating their lives just emerging field and then there's a lot Hoppus this side of the spectrum here which is this guy comes out he says big coins market cap has passed to Disney yes Disney Mickey Mouse froze him Star Wars Marvel Pixar ABC ESPN 12 theme parks 51 Resorts 387 stores 195 thousand employees 55 billion dollars in revenues and now Bitcoin now has a bigger market cap than Disney that's crazy guys Bitcoin has gone parabolic and that usually doesn't end well art kashin says I think we're in we're in the stage of basically we're in the fear of missing out phase he says no I just want to point you out one more thing and then we're going to kind of take all this into account here this was the Nasdaq okay this was a Nasdaq if we look here 1995 the Nasdaq was under a thousand points all right over the next five years the Nasdaq rose to around 5,000 I don't know why this chart doesn't show it all with 5,000 I believe it hit 5,000 or something very close to 5,000 in the year 2000 right within two years the Nasdaq has fallen had fallen under 15 honniger okay now why do I bring up the Nasdaq in relation to this Bitcoin and all this talk the reason I bring it up is because a lot of the same things that happened during that time are happening now as far as what people are saying on both sides of the fence all right so basically what you had in and in that the Nasdaq bubble right that the tech bubble as it's called is you had a lot of people especially a lot of younger people a lot of fund managers just for money into this like crazy it was the new thing tech companies with a new thing alright and what we had is we had people on both sides we had the older more traditional as people saying that's a bubble over there you guys got going on like that's crazy you you out billion multi-billion dollar valuations on tech companies that haven't even sold anything like you your numbers are crazy over there it's a bubble and you had a lot of younger people and some people who are just trying to make some money in general right and they just want to hop on the hot trend they're saying no you don't understand over there this is the new thing this is gonna be huge you don't understand we're not in a bubble at all the Nasdaq is go into 10,000 9 X 1 to 10,000 next year or the year after we're just gonna keep going up and you guys you had these guys over there the more older people say no you're crazy and who is ended up being wrong obviously in the short term these people were 100% and wrong it took nearly it took over a decade it took well over a decade for the Nasdaq to ever even get up to the point where it was where it was in the year 2000 took like I think around 14 years guys around 14 years so the young the young crowd the tech crowd they were 100% rate as is this is gonna change the world this is like changing stuff they'll hold technology world they were 100 percent right on the long term there were a hundred percent wrong on the short-term as far as they were in a huge bubble and they were contributed in this huge bubble and that huge bubble popped now as far as Bitcoin will this bubble pop in 2018 is this gonna happen who knows I wish I knew if I knew how would be placing bets against this whole deal right I just don't know because the thing you need for a bubble of pop really you need a lot of fear to come in the market and generally speaking you need the economy to go bad ok when you when you get something to pop you need the economy to go bad in the year 2000 we actually started having some economic troubles here in the states and a little bit around the world and that kind of helped it lead into the tech bubble and then that just fostered more and more fear out there and then we saw what happened with the tech bubble so we would really need to have something bad it happened in the economy in my in my opinion from that bubble to really pop which pop means and goes down like more than 50 percent okay but in order for it to go down 50 percent I'm not talking about like a old Bitcoin will wind down 10% this week or something that's like little stuff right if we really need Bitcoin you know to go way down 50% plus you really got to talk about something bad happening an economy okay because if something bad happens in the economy you got people that are potentially buying things on credit cards that was a serious part when you see search terms like people are trying to get into this anyway possible like I know talked to so many people who are involved in just know stuff about money right and they're all like oh I'm Bitcoin why didn't I get in Bitcoin I'm so stupid forgotten getting a Bitcoin Bitcoin keeps going up I need to get in this like how do I get in this you've got people that don't even have the money to stick into it now trying to take money out and credit cards trying to take loans to put in the Bitcoin trying to Marge and do whatever as possible that is so scary guys that is so scary to me because that is like bubble 101 right there when you got people trying to leverage money just trying to get in there anyway possible it's the scariest thing you know out there especially when it's happening in mass which if you look at these search terms it's happening in mass 3% 3% of all searches are that are related to Bitcoin or how do I invest in Bitcoin on a credit card guys 3% that's all massive amount of people think about how many people are searching out Bitcoin each and every day like I can't go anywhere without people talking about Bitcoin and think about how many people search the term Bitcoin in Google a day 3% of those is like how do I buy Bitcoin on credit card guys that's that's really scary stuff so watch yourself out there watch yourself a hundred percent because if the bubble does pop right if this thing goes down right who knows how long it will take you might be waiting a long long time the people that were in the Nasdaq in 2000 right and mind you the Nasdaq didn't even go up close to as much as Bitcoin the Nasdaq went from what a little under a thousand to around you know five thousand over a five year span we're talking about the Bitcoin has gone up well over a thousand percent in a year okay mind you that's that's like way bigger numbers than what was going on the tech bubble as far as you know the the rate of appreciation right it's not even comparable so you watch yourself out there guys because even if you're bullish long term even if bitcoins gonna be here to stay which it probably will okay does it mean you will get your return on investment hey any time soon if this thing goes down if this thing goes down you might a decade two decades before you even get back to the price that it was at when you originally bought it so just be careful out there guys be careful watch yourself at all times because um you never know what could happen but once again like in my opinion it's gonna take something to happen in the economy for everything to go down and mind you by the way those fund managers when those fund managers have to start selling position because the economy's going south and whatnot when they have to start selling off things the first thing they're selling off is crypto currencies I uh hundred percent guarantee you that if they have depict am I going to sell my Apple and Samsung stock or am I gonna sell Bitcoin and you know they said the crypto currency we have investments in there selling Bitcoin they're selling the other thing they're not frickin selling Apple and Samsung and Google stock in Amazon stock the things I've run the world okay they're selling off the crypto currencies first and foremost hope you guys enjoyed this day let me know your opinion in that comment section you guys think we'll have a Bitcoin crash in 2018 you think it's smooth sailing what type of performance do you think that coins gonna have in 2018 you think it's gonna go up another thousand percent or you think is gonna be a more modest like fifty percent gain or something like that which is still insane or 100 percent game I would love to know what you guys think in our comments I love reading you know perspectives from people on the fence about it people who are against it people are all for it I love reading it all guys thank you so much for watching and have a great day
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