저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
워런 버핏의 현금 비중 확대(약 1,492억 달러)를 근거로 그가 시장 폭락을 예상하거나 적절한 투자처를 찾지 못하고 있다고 해석하는 영상이다. [버핏의 현금 보유와 행동] 버핏의 현금이 1,492억 달러까지 늘어났으며, 발연자는 이를 시장 폭락 대비 또는 투자처 부재의 신호로 본다. 버크셔 자사주 매입(올해 약 200억 달러 규모로 언급)이 없었다면 현금은 더 많았을 것이라고 설명한다. [버핏의 과거 성과와 평가] 최근 25년간 버핏의 수익률은 미국 주식 포트폴리오를 소폭 하회하는 수준이며, 1960~80년대 전성기 이후 성과가 약화되었다고 평가한다. 코로나 폭락 후 저점에서 매수하지 않고 항공주 등을 저가에 매도한 점을 아쉬운 행보로 지적한다. [버핏이 투자하기 어려운 종목들] 애플 비중 확대는 밸류에이션 부담으로 어렵고, 마이크로소프트·구글·아마존·엔비디아·메타·TSMC 등 대형 성장주는 이해도 부족과 높은 주가수익비율 때문에 대규모 매수 가능성이 낮다고 본다. 테슬라 역시 그의 스타일과 맞지 않는다고 언급한다. [중소형 성장주 관련 견해] 식물성 식품, 소비재 등 성장 섹터의 중소형주는 버핏의 스타일에 맞을 수 있으나 그의 자본 규모에 비해 시총이 너무 작아 매력이 없다고 본다. 발연자 본인이 최근 매수 중인 8억 달러 규모 기업도 예시로 든다. [결론 및 전망] 버핏은 신규 기회를 포착하기 어려운 구조적 딜레마에 빠져 있으며, 시장의 큰 조정이 와도 그가 대규모로 매수할지는 불확실하다고 본다. 특정 종목에 대한 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
well howdy there folks and welcome into today's video which is a weekend video so you know if i'm ever recording a video on the weekend it's because there's some huge news that came out or because i'm highlighting upcoming earnings and this video is not an earnings video this video is about warren buffett somebody i look up to as a business legend and i feel like i learned a lot from warren buffett and kind of seeing you know what he's done over the past 50 60 70 years in the markets in business overall and i want to cover something very very important because warren buffett is essentially saying some very strong things about the state of the stock market right now and where he feels the stock market is at and i want to run through all this with you guys so you can kind of understand what's going on here right now if you ever heard this before this is like one of the most important things you could ever like hear uh you know just some human wisdom a person's actions will tell you everything you need to know and i think actions are more important than words you know somebody can say something this or that but at the end of the day like what are the what are their actions okay and warren buffett is telegraphing certain things with actions he's making out there on what he believes is going to happen in the stock market and what he thinks is going on in the stock market right and so i want to kind of give my perspective on this from like a balance standpoint i'm not like super negative not super positive just where warren buffett's at in my perspective somebody that's studied this guy for you know 12 plus years now so i hope you guys enjoy this video as always especially on the weekend i'll ask in returns that you smash the thumbs up button that's literally it guys i appreciate you joining me as always and don't forget to subscribe to the channel i think we're getting really dang close to 700 000 subscribers hungry bowl ios android that's the free app that is the beast okay so warren buffett you know incredible net worth incredible businessman incredible investor we should absolutely always give warren buffett his flowers while he's still here and even after he's gone we should always give him his flowers guys i think 90 plus years old now and absolutely a business legend and investing legend right and uh just somebody i think a lot of his life principles in investing principles will last way beyond his life needless to say right and so incredible incredible guy and we should always respect him but there are some things we should keep in mind here so i i pulled this off of this uh you know essentially etf website and i looked at warren buffett's returns over the past 25 years and from what the looks of it he's actually getting slightly outperformed by basically just a u.s stocks portfolio slightly outperformed right you know he's pretty dang close in line with the markets but still he's getting slightly outperformed and it seems like you know over the past 20 25 years it seems like warren buffett has really taken a step back warren buffett seemed to really be in his prime from the 60s through the 80s and then the 90s came and warren buffett i don't know if he slowly started to age out of the market and kind of exit his prime but i think there's many various reasons why warren buffett kind of started dropping off because at the end of the day if you look at his performance the past 20 plus years it's not amazing it's still impressive to be in line with the market because a lot of hedge fund managers can't even do that but at the end of the day uh yeah you know this is not amazing performance just flat out but there's certain things that are going on that i want to explain okay and so when it comes to warren buffett i i think we should give him ultra levels of respect but you shouldn't just say he's perfect angel and everything he does and all his actions are the right actions because we saw him not buy aggressively in the rona rona crash or coming out of the ronal crash when it was obvious we had bottomed he still wasn't buying right from an active standpoint right in any substantial way not only that we saw him sell a lot of stocks at some extremely low prices including a lot of his airline stocks right that it was just kind of like wow so not only is he not buying during this massive dip but he's actually selling at you know and then after that a lot of those stocks end up doubling tripling from there essentially okay and so this is just some food for thought here okay now the the big the big thing here with warren buffett's action is look at this this just came out warren buffett's cash pile now has hit 149.2 billion that just came out here a bit ago okay this is essentially warren buffett saying that i is him saying two things okay it could be him saying two things one could be i feel like there's a stock market crash coming so i'm gonna pile cash to the sky that could be one thing he's potentially saying the other thing he could be potentially saying with his actions here is i just don't find any good deals and i don't understand how to value some of these these companies and so therefore i'm just gonna stack cash essentially right and keep in mind this cash stack would be even higher if it wasn't for the fact that he was buying massive quantities of berkshire hathaway stock if i recall i think they bought like 20 billion dollars of berkshire hathaway stock just this year alone so that number you're seeing there if it wasn't for the fact that they're buying back so many shares in their own company that number would be at you know like exponentially even higher than what you're seeing there and so this is some food for thought here where it's like wow really like warren buffett really either thinks we're about to have a stock mark crash or he just can't find any good deals right so look at it from this perspective right i pulled up here the top 10 biggest market cap companies in the world right uh top 10 i did 11 here because one of them's warren buffett's own company berkshire hathaway so i want to see the 10 other ones you know what is warren buffett buying here well is he going to buy microsoft no he hasn't bought microsoft for the past 25 years so he's probably not buying that one he owns a massive position in apple he could build the position bigger but i doubt he wants to because the ford p's gotten very elevated compared to where it was when he was buying it so doubt and the market caps growing substantially so dowdy really you know wants to aggressively add apple at all the the saudi oil company i don't think he really wants to get involved with a saudi oil company be honest he loves oil and gas stocks but i don't think he really wants to get involved with the saudi one google you know in terms of like building out a 100 billion dollar 50 billion dollar position i don't i don't see him doing that anytime soon google mcdougall he's had a you know a chance to own google for a long time he hasn't bought it right i don't think he understands youtube and the power of of google the search android youtube and all the things google is doing amazon you know he's been pitched amazon for the last 20 plus years and has never bought that stock it's one of those you know for him on a 4p basis it trades way too rich and for him to wrap his head around what amazon web services is doing it's just he's not going to do that right test somebody else will give me a break he's not even a stock he would consider right i think he should consider it i think he should have considered it very strongly you know many many years ago but at the end of the day like he's not he's not paying uh i don't know what uh tesla's forward p's at now but he's he's not paying that 4p i can guarantee that meta facebook oh my gosh this whole metaverse talk that facebook's now on right first off he doesn't warren buffett doesn't even understand social media and all the implications and uh you know all that opportunity never mind this metaverse stuff that facebook's now pitching and where their business is going now you hear every company out there also talking about metaverse metaverse dude warren buffett's he can't invest in facebook he does not know he doesn't get like the metaverse right nvidia dream on no way he's not touching nvidia okay berkshire hathaway obviously he's buying that stock which is his own stock right uh taiwan semiconductor company i don't see that happening 10 cent no that's just you know a video game company plus another social network plus a lot more there 10 cent no so if you look at these type of stocks what is warren buffett going to buy here there's really nothing that's really he that that's his cup of tea so all these massive companies that he could actually buy big big positions and write five 10 15 20 billion dollar type positions and these aren't these aren't companies he can understand on a high enough level to say i'm gonna go put 20 billion dollars in this stock i'm gonna go put 40 billion dollars in a stock it's just not it's just not his thing right and so and this is where you leaving you you enter this situation with warren buffett where it's like he really can't buy any of these stocks because the world's kind of i don't want to say the world's past them by but it's just kind of like these new age companies it's just it's way way too out there for them at the end of the day okay and so you look at it from that standpoint and i i can kind of understand and then you think about like like new age companies that are on the come up that are growth companies whether it be food and drink companies in the plant-based space i think a lot of these growth companies in the plant-based food space would be warren buffett's cup of tea if he had way less capital but nowadays he's looking to put you know five 10 15 20 30 billion dollars in a company and most of plant-based food companies are like you know under 10 billion dollar mark cap so it's just he can't even like get into a sector like that warren buffett back in the 60s and 70s i feel like he would be buying a ton of these companies right an investment like mine that i've been buying the last couple months honest company it's a 800 million dollar mark cap whatever he's not buying that stock even though it's right up his alley it's a diaper company and a wipe company and beauty products like that is a perfect company for warren buffett but he can't even consider a company like that because 800 million dollars it's not even worth his time to look into that right so at the end of the day i think the you know warren buffett's just in a situation where i think a lot of the markets just passed him by and he just can't get positions built in a lot of these companies because he doesn't understand these companies well enough and he never has and if he does he hasn't understood him in the past he's probably not going to magically understand them now and then all these other growth companies that are in these exciting sectors that are you know drink food uh you know household good type companies right consumer packaged good companies all these up-and-coming companies they're too small of market caps for him to even to even be worth his time nowadays and so he's stuck in this like kind of catch 22 where it's like what does he do stack cash to the sky buy back berkshire stock and try to find some uh you know big deal out there like he bought you know burlington northern santa fe many years ago the railroad right and so he's just stuck in a really really tough spot and i think he's probably hoping that there will be some sort of major correction the stock market or crash so he can use some of that cash but honestly even if there was a crash in the stock market or a major correction what's he buying if if a bunch of uh you know smaller caps get even smaller once again he's not interested in those it's too small of money and what if google also drops 25 is he gonna magically buy google down 25 no he's likely not because guess what he could have bought google down way more than that last year and he wasn't doing it so why is he also going to do it now and so at the end of the day i think warren buffett's just in a tough spot where i think the market's kind of passing by and his capital has gotten so big that he can't take advantage of new opportunities in the market and so i think that is truly the truth why he's holding so much dang cash but i would love to hear from you guys in that comment section as always on your perspective also just so you know the private stock group we got the deal of the century coming on black friday so if you want to be notified as soon as that deal drops check out pin comment down there that's uh basically so you can enter in your info and we'll shoot you the deal as soon as it drops okay hope you guys enjoyed this video as always much love and have a great day
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