저자: FinancialEducation채널진행자 · 외국인
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마이클 버리와 캐시 우드가 서로 반대 방향으로 베팅하고 있다는 2021년 8월 뉴스를 전하며, 테슬라 고평가 논쟁을 중심으로 진행자 의견을 밝힌 영상이다. 마이클 버리 쪽 근거: 스코프 자산운용이 ARK 이노베이션 ETF에 대해 23만5500주 규모의 풋옵션(약하락 베팅)을 보유했고, 평가액은 약 3,100만 달러라고 보도된다. 버리는 테슬라에 대한 하락 베팅도 키워 풋옵션을 약 107만5500주로 늘렸다. 직전 분기 80만100주에서 증가한 수치다. 진행자는 버리가 ARK와 테슬라 양쪽에 베팅한 것을 우드에 대한 직접적 도전으로 해석한다. 버리는 6월 가상화폐와 밈주식에 대해 대폭락 가능성을 경고한 바 있다. 이후 해당 종목들은 크게 하락했지만 가상화폐는 다시 강하게 반등했다고 설명한다. 풋옵션 개념 설명: 특정 가격 이하로 떨어지면 이익이 생기는 하락 베팅이며, 주가가 내려갈수록 가치가 커진다. 테슬라 밸류에이션: 포워드 PER 약 150배로 보고, 애널리스트 평균 기준으로 고평가지만 과거 기준으로는 비싸지 않다고 본다. 성장 요인으로 모델 램프업, 베를린·상하이 공장, 사이버트럭, 자율주행을 든다. 진행자는 PER이 100 아래로 내려가면 강한 관심을 가질 것이라고 말한다. 주가가 절반으로 떨어지면 PER 70~75 수준이 된다고 가정한다. 다만 테슬라는 당분간 박스권일 것이라고 보며, 큰 폭락 가능성은 낮다고 본다. ARK 보유 현황: 2위 보유 종목 텔레닥(TDOC)은 전고점 300달러 이상에서 약 139달러로 떨어졌으며 120~140달러 구간에서 등락 중이라고 설명한다. 결론적으로 진행자는 버리가 테슬라 공매도로 여러 차례 실패한 '거물 공매도 투자자' 사례들과 비교하며, 그런 베팅의 실익에 회의적인 시각을 보인다. 또한 시장에서 금액 대비 기회가 많다는 의견을 덧붙인다.
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well folks do we have a whole lot of drama in the stock market right now oh my gosh stocks have been getting destroyed especially russell 2000 stocks a lot of the smaller cap companies have been getting destroyed we know this okay but do we have even a next level of drama okay michael bury super famous guy in the stock market and kathy wood who's blown up in in terms of her fame over the last couple years in the stock market are basically directly betting against each other now yes you heard me right betting against each other this is unbelievable okay michael bury of the big short bets against kathy woods arc fund we're going to look into this what are the details in this i'm going to give you my perspective on this what do i think of michael bury betting against tesla stock he's betting heavier than ever against the stock now what's my perspective on this he's also betting against ark fund what's my perspective on that we're going to speak about all this hope you guys enjoyed as always all i ask is that you'll smash that like button that's it okay michael berry the investor made famous by the big short movie has taken aim at one of wall street's hottest stars burri scion asset management owned bearish put contracts against 235 500 shares of ark innovation etf that's the arc fund guys at the end of the second quarter this is their main fund 235 500 shares bearish put contracts according to a regulatory filing on monday the new position was valued almost 31 million dollars okay here's the thing michael bury has been betting against kathy woods individual stocks very very recently last couple quarters but now he's literally betting against kathy wood and this is like the biggest slap against a face of kathy wood this is basically him saying kathy wood your stocks are about to get destroyed or just frankly you don't know what you're doing kathy wood that's exactly what this is saying because now he's literally betting against her fund or the etf i mean this is you know woo wee is this crazy okay burry has been warning about unsustainable valuations in the market for months in junee cautioned that retail investors could be getting drawn into the mother of all crashes by investing in cryptocurrencies in meme stocks now this this line right here is very very important because you know some folks when they heard this they basically said oh he's saying the whole stock market is about to crash or all growth stocks are about to crash no very specifically he says cryptocurrencies and mean stocks now we could also be wrong about that i don't know okay i can tell you since uh that time a lot of those stocks have fallen quite dramatically cryptocurrencies also took a big big fall but i will say a lot of cryptos have been coming back really really strong if you're wondering at all like what is a put okay here's the way they described put just think about put option think about basically it's a bet that a stock price is going to go down a per contract gives scion which is their you know michael bury's fund there the right to sell shares in the etf before a certain date and at a previously agreed price its value increases if shares dropped below the threshold the exact terms of the puts and when they were purchased are undisclosed bury has been indirectly indirectly betting against wood for some time via a short position in tesla which by the way just got a whole lot bigger one of ark's top picks and ark's biggest holding look at this here monday's filing a quarterly requirement of hedge funds above a certain size also shows that bury increases bearish wagers against the electric vehicle maker with puts on one million seventy five thousand five hundred tesla shares that's up from eight hundred thousand one hundred shares in the first quarter so basically what's going on now michael berry says arc fun you're going to be into big trouble tesla you're going to be in a really big trouble he's now betting directly against ark and then said you know i'm going to make my my tesla negative position bigger than ever before so this is basically michael bury saying i'm doubling down on what i believe is going to transpire here now in regards to tesla here's kind of my pushback okay so if you look at tesla's 4p it's at about let's say 150 roughly now that could be that could vary widely right tesla can be much more profitable over the next four quarters or less profitable you know that's hard to predict but analysts on average would say the stocks had about ford p now for tests on a historical basis that is not expensive at all also keep in mind uh you know tesla has unbelievable growth we're going into model wise ramping international expansions ramping right gigafactory berlin's about to open the shanghai gigafactory is almost completely built out now and cyber truck likely going to start ramping next year which should be insanely popular in the united states of america and so you're going into this with also possibility to talk about model you know two uh self-driving capabilities continuing to get pushed better and better and you're looking at all that and you're looking at a 4p of 150 so if this was i don't know general motors or volkswagen trading at 150 yeah wow that's insane right but for tesla not that crazy here's the thing okay let's say hypothetically the stock was to get cut in half today i mean we're talking half its valuation they would put tesla's 4p at a 70 something maybe a 75 i can tell you personally if tesla was at a ford p of under 100 i would be extremely interested in the stock based upon the type of growth i expect for them over the next five 10 years and the way i see their brand building all sorts of things so you know i i mean it is definitely possible is definitely possible and i've always said you know tesla i in my opinion is kind of range bound for a while but in terms of seeing a huge stock crash for the stock it gets a little hard to see just for the mere fact that you gotta understand there's so much money and i'm not just talking about retail money i'm talking about wall street money that is would just love to hop in tesla stock they're just kind of looking at they're like i don't know about 154 p but i could tell you if allison this 4p was 70 80 uh yeah there's a whole lot of money just waiting to come into this one okay so that's something just to you know some food for thought there right now if we go to kathywoodstocks.com which tracks kathy wood's top 25 arc investments on literally a daily basis and how big those positions are if they're going up down market value the weight of them how many shares they have in each one the second biggest position in the main art fund is teledoc tdoc right 5.63 of the fund there now keep in mind teledoc has already been getting destroyed so it doesn't mean teledoc can't keep going down all i'm saying is this stock has already made its big massive tumble right from at the highs it was over three hundred dollars a share now it's 139 it's been flirting and yeah anywhere between 120 140 so this is some food for thought here it's not like you know these stocks are already at all new all-time highs they've already fallen quite dramatically when it comes to a lot of these including our second biggest position so just some food for thought and at the end of the day when i kind of look at what michael bury's doing here and in my two cents on this you know he's trying to be the dragon slayer there's been a lot of uh quote-unquote very smart people if you want to call them that uh that at least you would think have very high iqs that have spent years and years shorting tesla stock and for the most part losing money shorting tesla stock and betting against tesla and betting against elon musk now michael burry is stepping in and basically saying i'm going to be the dragon slayer i'll be the one that makes huge profits on this i'll be the the one that got it right against elon musk and tesla and to that i just say why why is it worth michael berry's time maybe he can do it and i guess he's he wants to be applauded for that maybe they can make a second movie about michael berry and how he was right against elon musk and he was the one that finally got it right finally short of tesla made a ton of money off it and look at him he was so smart but for what when i look at the type of opportunities in the market and when i look at how many people have um you know lost money betting against elon musk like somebody give me the definition of insanity right give me the definition of insanity how many how many uh quote unquote great smart short sellers have bet against this guy and lost a fortune and just um you know you know dwindled in their career kind of went south maybe michael bury will be the one to make it through but what for like really what for and then okay you know just some some food for thought there guys so anyways it's going to be interesting to see what happens here around kathy wood and and michael bury and kind of them betting against each other i'll be tracking it and by the way if you're looking to track your stocks cryptos listen to earnings calls maybe even sec reports coming daily newsletter all that stuff check out the hungry bowl on your app store much love as always and have a great day
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