저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
오미크론 변이의 빠른 확산으로 2022년 글로벌 GDP와 공급망, 소비에 타격이 예상되며 재재택·재고용 축소가 경제를 압박할 수 있다는 주장. 백신 중화항체 효과 감소(40배)와 재감염 위험, 부스터 효과 제한을 근거로 제시. 오미크론 전파력은 델타의 약 4배, 영국 배가시간 1.5일로 빠르다고 언급. 미국 뉴욕 양성률 약 8~13%, 확진·입원·사망 증가 수치 인용. 존슨앤드존슨 백신 혈전 부작용과 자가진단키트 정확도 문제도 언급.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, me Kevin here. I know a lot of us are tired about hearing about Omicron, but the reality is it is going to put a severe dent in global GDP in 2022. It could affect supply chains, it could affect a lot of discretionary spending, and we could see that household savings rate go right back up, and of course the potential of a reintroduction of certain types of business stimulus again.
We've got to talk about Omicron. Let's talk about it. We'll also recap uh what we've uh talked about in the past, so that way if you're new here, you get a quick little recap. So, let's get into uh the news first. So, Omicron is expected to dominant in Britain, Denmark, and Norway this month. The US is facing a rise in cases, but low levels of the variant so far have been detected uh in individuals.
Remember, just the other day the CDC said we were at a 3% uh case rate of Omicron. However, listen to this, folks. ABC News just reported that even though there have been almost no clinical Omicron infections in Florida, wastewater samples already show that the new Omicron variant is the dominant strain in Orlando, Florida.
This is really important because Orlando, you might not know, is the home to Disney World, which is obviously popular vacation destination, which means we're likely to see Omicron very quickly become dominant throughout the rest of the United States. Omicron represented almost 100% of the coronavirus samples uh collected.
That's unbelievable. Now, uh those hospitalized, tentatively at least for the time being, seem to be coming in with Delta, though. Delta seems to be leading to that rise in hospitalizations. The Omicron variant has been detected in at least 40 states since the first case in the United States 17 days ago.
On a 7-day average, COVID-19 hospital admissions are up 4% to 7,800 per day, and deaths are up 8% to 1,200 per day. Now, uh this is This part here is going to be a little bit of recap with some of the most important of the data that we've talked about in prior days, along with updates that are most relevant now.
So, I'm going to try to only in this next section here try to keep the most relevant information to what we know specifically about about these various different topics. So, for example, T cells. We know that T cells help our body fight illness. They specifically help prevent severe disease. Well, folks, 70% of our T cells are expected to still respond to Omicron if you have two doses of either the Pfizer or the Moderna vaccine.
The Pfizer was the one that's tested, and the Moderna one is the one that is expected to have a similar response. However, antibodies, folks, this is where we're running into issues with the antibodies. There are indications on 12/9 we got an indication from Bloomberg that antibody levels by as studied by BioNTech were at least to a decent level to where antibodies could still help fight Omicron, but another study was much less positive.
And after this, we find out through yet another study that there's a 40-fold reduction in antibody effectiveness in Omicron from the alpha variant for individuals with a double shot of the vaccine. So, antibodies are really getting hurt hard here, and again, that's because of all the mutations to the tip of the spike protein.
The T helper cells, they attack the entire spike, but it's the tip that has a substantial amount of mutations, over 30 mutations, and the antibodies are really failing here. This is helping Well, this is I should say compounded by the fact that Omicron is four times more transmissible than Delta. And now we're getting indications that Omicron infects 70 times faster than Delta, but the variant replicates about 10 times less effectively than original COVID.
And this is how they're sort of getting to this net net 4x transmissibility. This was really interesting released by a University of Hong Kong study on Wednesday. And the lead researcher did mention that although Omicron is less severe, it is so infectious that it may lead to a higher volume of severe disease and even death.
And if you think about it, to some degree this makes sense. If every single day you have 50,000 people get COVID and it's the Delta variant, and maybe let's say 10% of those individuals are going to the hospital, that's 5,000 individuals going to the hospital, right? Well, if every day with Omicron you have 1 million people who are getting Omicron, and 1% so five times fewer people are going to hospital, 1% are going to the hospital, that's 10,000 hospitalizations.
That's twice as many as Delta. And so that's the concern, and you can see in the numbers it's going to create problems. Right now, and this was revised down which is scary from 2.4, the previous rate was 2.4 in the United Kingdom. Omicron was doubling at a rate of 2.4 days per double. It's now down at 1 and 1/2 in the United Kingdom.
It is spreading like wildfire. Now, it's worth recapping that the one death Boris Johnson mentioned was a death with Omicron and not from Omicron. The Daily Mail from the United Kingdom, they indicated that they spoke with this stepson of the individual who died. And the stepson said the person who died was in his 70s, who was fit and healthy and never left the house.
He was an unvaccinated conspiracy theorist, and this is what the stepson claimed late yesterday. And they we did not get this transparency from Boris Johnson. Now, there are still some disease modelers that believe we could usher in the end of the pandemic by having Omicron. However, there are still questions of like, "Hey, sure, but if a lot of people get Omicron and we end up getting herd immunity through Omicron, what about long COVID?" And so, long COVID is still a big question mark.
Could people get long COVID from Omicron? We just don't know yet. So, people are still nervous about catching Omicron because of the potential for long COVID, which a lot of folks are trying to avoid. There are even younger folks who are like, "Look, I'm not worried about dying. I'm not worried about having to go to the hospital, but I don't want long COVID to affect me in my sports or whatever." Now, regarding reinfections, early indications per Bloomberg suggested it's much easier to get reinfected with the Omicron variant, even if you've already had COVID.
The same study that indicated this showed clinical results showing that clinical results are coming out say that the Omicron variant is demonstrating high rates of not only reinfection, but also vaccine breakouts. Not ideal. Now, regarding vaccines, if you are double vaccinated, you are more likely to be asymptomatic, especially if you're closer to when you got that shot.
Obviously, if it's been 6 months, your efficacy has declined substantially. Against Delta, after 6 months, your efficacy goes from like 85% to 90% down to around 45% to 50% with Omicron, you're going down with two shots to as low as 22.5% according to Time, who broke this story. Now, the World Health Organization recommends, if you do get your second dose, get the same brand.
Pfizer is conducting clinical clinical vaccine trials for children under five. However, so far, two doses was not enough for children under five. So, the current trial is including a three-dose regimen for children under five in order to create an immune response in younger children. The vaccine just did not generate enough of an immune response for children under five and especially under two.
Now, the CDC says children exposed to COVID can safely return to school for in-person learning as long as they're regularly tested for COVID. Regarding boosters, the last that we had was uh from Reuters that on 12/10 we heard boosters could give a 70 to 75% protection against symptomatic disease, but that that you were likely to still potentially get COVID, uh but that you would be asymptomatic.
And a recent Columbia University study from 12/16 indicated that Omicron is markedly resistant to vaccines and boosters, saying that a third vaccine may not protect against infection or a third booster. Well, your thoughts third shot, the booster, may not protect. Imperial College uh of London indicated that having had COVID only offers a 19% protection against Omicron.
Now, then we already know that Apple is offering money to some employees for staying home. Jefferies and many funds are working at home. Pinterest is working at home throughout 2022. Google's uh you know, threatening to withhold pay from individuals who are unvaccinated and others are delaying returning to the to work.
Uh Facebook, Uber, Lyft, other companies like this, uh you know, off corporate office workers. Uh so, this this folks, this is going to be a big drag on gross domestic product, right? Now, regarding masks, uh quick this was just a quick little note here. If two people are masked with surgical masks, you do see about a 92% reduction in transmission, and I know we all hate masks, but I thought this was interesting.
If an uninfected person is masked and somebody is infected and is not masked, you get a 67% reduction in COVID, but if the infected person is masked, you get a 75% reduction in COVID transmission. Obviously, the N95 mask is providing the valveless one is providing some of the best protection for both both cases here.
New York really is is the hot epicenter of all of this right now. Live Nation cancellations are up. Ohio is also having issues. They've activated a thousand National Guard individuals to help relieve staffing shortages at healthcare facilities. Of the 263 people that is 263,000 people tested, we're at about 8% positive in New York.
Though, NPR reports we could be as high as 13% positive with Omicron in in New York. Now, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, there is an advisory panel for the CDC that mentioned that it prefers the Pfizer This was yesterday. Prefers the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines over Johnson & Johnson. And this is after the CDC confirmed that 54 people have developed a rare blood clot condition following the Johnson & Johnson vaccination.
All were hospitalized and nine of them died. 36 ended up having to go to the ICU. So, that is why they unanimously voted to recommend Pfizer and Moderna over the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Johnson & Johnson stock didn't really fall after this news because the J&J vaccine is mostly a non-profit project for them.
The condition is thrombosis, by the way, that was that was happening. But, anyway, the death rate for Johnson & Johnson was still per 1 million doses was .57, which is higher than the Moderna and Pfizer. There are the myocarditis concerns regarding the Moderna vaccine, especially in younger males. However, none of those have been linked to a death and almost all of them recovered naturally without treatment.
There were a a more severe cases that took longer for individuals to recover from. We covered that and and cited citations for this in in a report just a few days ago. Now, the FDA also says the currently available evidence supports this casual relationship between thrombosis and the Johnson vaccine.
Now, it's worth noting that the side effects listed by the CDC do not include thrombosis. Anyway. Now, I know a lot of people don't like Dr. Fauci, but Dr. Fauci did mention that some rapid home tests are apparently not as accurate as the PCR tests right now. The PCR tests are still the gold standard.
So, if you get a negative at-home test, some of the at-home tests are not functioning as well as they should. This is obviously not ideal, but that that is seen as an issue at the moment. We do also have some miscellaneous quotes here that are just worth noting. Eric Topol, Dr. Eric Topol mentions the concern here really is for a lot of folks is getting long COVID.
Then, there is a professor who argues that a lot of the projections for COVID's trajectory are being overblown to keep people fearful and at home. But, at least at the moment, we are noticing mobility decline substantially in the UK and in New York, and we could expect mobility and increased work from home to to affect GDP and unfortunately the stock market, but also obviously people's lives who are getting sick.
So, do your best, stay safe, and , found any information in this useful, consider sharing the video, and I appreciate your support as always. We'll see you in the next one. Goodbye.
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