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hey everyone meet kevin here let's talk about the tesla etf tesla's deliveries for q1 2021 which are bound to be released within the next 24 to 48 hours and hey let's also talk about well the future of tests though it's very very important okay so here we go first thing first the tesla etf so when we think of etf usually we think of things like arc invest arc x rk arc g r f vanguard s p 500 uh you know index fund which is kind of a style ets are two types of ets an index based one or an actively managed one a little nuance there it doesn't matter so much uh and yesterday i came upon a comment that i thought was really brilliant what do you think of this what if you could buy an etf an exchange traded fund that included charging companies a uh maybe a set of battery companies an insurance company for vehicle insurance regular consumer cars residential consumer style cars like mom and pop cars your car my car commercial vehicles like for deliveries solar panels solar inverters solar roof grid sustainable energy products like mega packs power walls for powering people's houses automation robotics and robo taxis well that would sound like a pretty freaking awesome etf and then you kind of draw the connection you're like wait a minute tesla is literally all of those things tesla stock and tesla as a company literally has their hand in the cookie jar of all of these things it's incredible how fast tesla is we think of tesla which is like oh you picture of a model 3 pops up in your head or a cyber truck that is just one part it's kind of like you could buy faraday solutions the car company let's say uh or fair to futures and uh get uh get access to a car right you could buy quantum scape and get access to battery technology you could buy charge point and get a charging company you could buy geico and get car insurance you could buy a rival to get commercial vehicles uh you could buy solar panels from canadian solar you could get solar inverters and power walls from en phase and you could get uh you know grid products probably from somebody else i can't think of a name right now but you could get a top automation from nvidia and qualcomm and intel's mobile eye and robo taxi probably those as well right those are all different companies which in theory they each do some of those things really well like end enphase does really well at solar inverters and battery backups for houses but tesla stock itself literally does all of these things and this is what makes tesla so multifaceted and i think when we think of tesla stock we just think about cars and the production of cars we completely forget that they're making innovative batteries the 4680 cells that they're expanding their supercharger network faster than any other company is expanding their supercharger network tesla's got around a thousand superchargers combined other companies have around 4 000 superchargers and i don't mean all chargers i mean dc superchargers tesla's killing it one of the largest semi trucks the tesla semi is gonna probably start getting delivered to pepsi here towards the end of the year and we're going to see a factory designing or manufacturing the semi trucks outside of nevada probably this year which is incredible because originally we were thinking oh the semi-truck will be built in uh in gigafactory texas and austin uh well now we might have two lines assembling and delivering and producing and manufacturing and delivering semi-trucks it's incredible so when we put all of these things together yes wow tesla really kind of is like a really volatile etf because look it goes up and down like 33 all the time right but in some ways it kind of is like somewhat like an exchange traded fund it's obviously not we can't call it an etf but it kind of acts that way because it covers so many different things it's like the best potential diversified growth play if you can only ever pick one stock to invest in look at all the different verticals you get really really incredible we don't even give respect yet to car insurance or the future of uh tesla's dojo super con computer that could potentially be its own standalone business it's absolutely incredible but uh enough sort of gawking over tesla and this etf idea let's just take a moment and talk about delivery numbers for q1 our expectations for those so here's the thing wall street expects 174 000 vehicles to be delivered this is uh slower than the pace that uh tesla has leaked that they are trying to reach tesla is trying to get to one million vehicles per year uh here in 2021 so this year they're trying to get to one million vehicles and break that one million per uh year number obviously next year it should grow even more wall street really expects tesla to deliver somewhere around 880 to 900 000 vehicles this year which would be significantly more than the 500 000 that they delivered in 2020 but one million vehicles delivered would be doubling that 500k from 2020 and would really really go to show that wow tesla can scale a lot faster than they're oftentimes given credit for and we're really at the beginning of that s-curve but think about it when when you have the gigafactory berlin hopefully coming online this year giga austin coming online this year the expansion at shanghai and fremont coming online this year into next year and now an expansion outside of giga nevada for the semi-truck line this is incredible the we're just at the beginning of tesla's growth however we do have quarterly data coming up quarterly data is going to be a little bit interesting because the wall street expects 174 000 vehicles to be delivered and there is a good chance that uh tesla is actually going to miss this delivery expectation i wouldn't be shocked if it comes in dangerously low at like 150 to 160 000 now i hope it doesn't but it wouldn't shock me and that's because there have been some issues first the model s and x have been going through their refresh cycle maybe not as big of a deal because they make up a smaller percentage of vehicles sold at tesla anyway compared to the model 3 and model y so it really depends a lot is going to depend on how well those have scaled up for us to see a tesla beat it would be extremely bullish like if tesla came in it's like we delivered 180 000 oh my gosh that that should move the stock pretty nicely if we get at or a little bit below expectation i think a lot of folks think that's probably what's going to happen and again we i mean we even had a fire at gig of fremont it's not good you know it was a small i think it was uh one of the metal tooling shops or something there was there was a fire at one of these it was a small scale fire but it's still a fire and that causes delays that damages products uh and damages machinery and causes delays so wouldn't shock me to see a miss on tesla's deliveries here in q1 q1 is also notoriously a slower quarter for electric vehicle manufacturers wouldn't be surprised to see some more pain for neo as well especially since they shut down their line for about a week now keep in mind the reality is these electric vehicle manufacturers they might all be suffering right now in this electric vehicle sell-off but we've sold off so substantially in the ev space it's possible that these delivery figures will only actually make a difference to the share prices if they're way higher than expected because we are slowly starting to see you know the last couple days we've been green on for example tesla neo maybe we're starting to see a little bit more of a push towards the future of these uh of these companies growing well and getting back to a higher stock value than where they are now because we've sold off over the last five weeks but yeah i mean i don't think personally sort of a bottom line i don't believe that this quarterly data is going to be that exciting i don't think it's going to be that good i wouldn't hang my hat on it for short-term you know calls for example i might hang my hat on tesla for short-term calls just because tesla's momentum has started trending towards the stock price going up again but uh these delivery figures i'm not very optimistic about but it's not going to negatively affect me in the event they come in low i'm kind of expecting them to come in low and usually i'm pretty optimistic about tesla and i'm not expecting them to do poorly and this quarter though had a lot of issues not just the fire uh but also the snx refresh where they're changing the steering wheel and changing so many parts they're taking the facilities offline for a bit while they conduct this refresh and they're full steam ahead of trying to get these these manufacturing lines back up and running in full capacity so not super optimistic about this quarter however very very optimistic about the long term and especially the fact that we've had the leaks from elon musk and uh you know tesla that uh they're targeting a million vehicles this year which quite frankly means if we come in at 160 this quarter which you know elon already knows what the deliveries are likely going to be like so he's already got probably a very accurate estimate in his mind so when he thinks we're going to get to 1 million vehicles this year produced think about what that means let's say we come in low this quarter 160 and the next quarter we get to say 250 just as an example 160 plus 250 is uh 410 that means we're gonna have to do 590 in two quarters towards the end of the year uh which is approximately 295 000 vehicles per quarter that means we're probably by the end of this year gonna be somewhere around 300 000 vehicles per quarter produced and sold produced and delivered by the end of the year if we get to that kind of pace going into 2022 300 and growing right but 300 000 vehicles times four quarters is 1.2 million i think we're going to grow way better than that once we get into the next year but i think we're really going to see some a massive growth so for example my projection might be 160 000 for q1 get to say 250 for q2 but then we're probably going to overshoot three pretty quickly go to either 300 000 and q3 maybe we get to that 325 350 000 and q4 and next year we start getting into ideally for 2020 we start getting ideally to 400 000 vehicles per quarter because that's going to put us on pace for 1.6 million deliveries in 2022 which is roughly my target and i'm super excited and bullish about that but that's how i expect this this deliveries period to ramp up so we'll see we'll see i think there's going to be we're definitely going to want to be patient here we'll see how these deliveries come up but i think we're at the beginning of a curve here in 2021 is going to be sort of the last of those really slow growth start years going into 2022 i think we're gonna blow expectations out of water out of the water q1 2022 that's still a year away which for me i look at as a benefit hey the longer tesla takes to go to the moon more time i have to buy more share thanks bye you
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