저자: 미상 · 외국인
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하이퍼인플레이션 가능성 재부상이 주제다. 최근 엘리엇 매니지먼트 서한을 계기로, 마이클 버리의 과거(2021년) 버블 붕괴 경고를 재조명한다. 엘리엇 매니지먼트는 폴 싱어가 1977년 설립한 대형 헤지펀드로, 평균 수익률이 S&P500을 장기간 상회했다고 언급된다. 이 회사가 하이퍼인플레이션 가능성이 점점 현실화된다는 취지의 서한을 냈다. 버리는 과거 투자자들에게 2008년 위기를 넘겼다고 해서 이번 위기도 대응 가능하다고 가정하면 안 된다고 경고했고, 글로벌 주식 시가총액 약 28조 달러 손실을 언급했다. 진행자들은 인플레이션 원인으로 공급망 요인만 강조하는 것은 부정직하며, 소비자 수요가 여전히 강하다고 본다. 하이퍼인플레이션이 현실화되면 글로벌 사회 붕괴와 내부 갈등이 동반될 수 있다는 역사적 사례(바이마르 독일)를 들었다. 파월 연준 의장은 금리 인상을 강하게 이어가며, 과도하게 완화하는 위험이 과하게 긴축하는 위험보다 훨씬 크다고 말했다. 진행자들은 파월이 볼커의 교훈(인플레 기대를 방치하면 안 된다)을 따르려 한다고 해석한다. 근원 PCE는 높은 수준에서 횡보 중이며, 파월이 선호하는 지표지만 시장은 CPI에 더 크게 반응한다는 점을 짚었다. 10월 CPI 발표(11월 10일)를 앞두고 변동성이 클 것으로 본다. 진행자들은 하이퍼인플레이션이 실제 리스크인지, 아니면 최악은 지났는지 시청자 의견을 요청하며 마무리했다.
다듬은 글
today we're going to talk about hyperinflation do you remember this coming up in the past well it's kind of resurfaced a little bit based upon a report that came up this week from Elliott management pretty prominent hedge fund out there we're going to talk a little bit about like what Michael Murray had to say about it and what Jerome Powell's effects are on hyperinflation two supercars3 stocks this is the scary scary thing that everyone's very scared of and it's legitimate that's terrifying exactly um you know no one wants this to be like a future anywhere else in the world again you know it is this are we on a track towards this yeah I don't know but like there was some discussion pretty prominent hedge fund talked about it this week um the this is this is the why am I Republican when they had a massive hyperinflation kind of period now bury has talked about how there were eight years of digestion and one year of implosion so it's a really kind of slow burn until all of a sudden explodes now are we truly on a track for this is the kind of the pointer discussion or something like that um this is his what his tweets kind of looked like back in the time when he was talking about this kind of you know massive bubble and how the bubble would pop and that sort of thing you know this this fomo crash drawing in retail as you can see this isn't exactly really fresh material this is going back to 2021 here right uh this isn't something he's been talking about two months recently but he did talk a little bit about it back uh last year and you know same thing pretty speculative bubble of all time and all things by two orders of magnitude do you know what order magnitude is by the way uh exponential so two zeros yeah exactly so it'd be like 100 times yeah 100 times larger the reason why this resurfaced this week is uh Elliott management now this element right here is uh Paul singer he's a Paul Elliott singer that's where he gets his name from uh he's the founder of this this hedge fund found in 1977.
um their track record on average they have beat the SPL 100 over that uh that time period so I think uh it was around a couple percent or so beat by the average for that that 40 plus year duration so he he's not like a a joke fly-by-night guy he is managing over 50 billion dollars in assets for management all right so this is like legitimate you know hedge fund it's been around for a long time um yeah we're 13.5 annualized returns over that time period compared to 11.6 so he released a letter this week that uh the financial times gonna hold us and he was talking about how you know it's not exactly probable but we are in that kind of area where the likelihood of hyperinflation is becoming more and more possible at least in his view right um that's where this whole kind of Crux comes down to whether or not we have a risk of that happening again how prominent is he in the investor world I guess okay my question is if Buffett said this it's almost gonna happen just because he said it like it's just everything's doomed right understood uh so I remember there was one article looking at uh top hedge fund managers and it was from 2016 or so and he was ranked at number eight or nine so top ten in terms of headphone managers um you know what they were based on right under Kathy Woods it's like right here yeah yeah exactly but this whole idea that you know we've seen it all is who he was saying his investors should not assume they've seen everything just because we've navigated this previous financial distress in 2008 um Morgan surprise crisis there that we should not be kind of um reassured that we have the skills and knowledge to navigate this this new kind of Crisis that we're seeing here and that um you know we've already seen 28 trillion dollars in in kind of asset value lost and that's a crazy number huh how did he get that oh Global equities um and then you know this is one part where I actually completely agree with him he's talking about how Central Bank things have worse than the financial picture added that was dishonest to say that the true culprit of high inflation was attributed to um price pressures from supply chain disruptions that was certainly part of it in the beginning uh kind of phases of covid but that has not persisted throughout the entirety of this I mean I think anyone that goes out in public and has eyes capable of seeing that there is just the massive consumer demand you know anywhere you go right now is just packed to the gills which are insane including actually still cars to be honest you know because uh having a kid you got to get a bigger car it's still you're looking at like four or five months for a reasonably price like it's it's pretty wild yeah yeah exactly so he's talking about this looming hyperinflation concludes a global societal collapse and civil International Strife certainly if this were to happen yes like I I don't think they go uh you know kind of it can't happen without it basically is my point is that if you want to have this massive period of popular inflation you're going to have this kind of dramatic economic uh impact upon all these different countries and as a result of that you get this unfortunate like you know infighting and finger pointing and you know it's always easier to kind of Point your you know kind of hatred towards an outside Group which is what we saw after the Weimar Hub inflation that's why we get World War II in large part uh it's because of that massive destruction of the currency for the Deutsche Mark right and and that is what Jay Powell he doesn't keep referencing that specifically but when he does his rate hikes he's very Stern that this is going to continue right because he's like and I think he said this a week ago the risk of being too soft is way worse than the risk of being too hard he would way rather over correct than under correct because undercorrect can have like Doom and Gloom possibilities yeah right that's what he's trying to prevent yeah you know he is literally trying to fight off this hyperinflation right right yes in part he certainly helped cause it by the massive run-up and the balance sheet during the the pandemic no no doubt about that but that is what he's trying to crush right now I'm actually reading Paul vogler's book um keeping at it which is funny because he quoted it back in his uh uh the Utah the Salt Lake City um uh press conference I'm sorry not Salt Lake City but the Jackson Hole yeah Jackson Hole yeah it was like we're keeping at it which is the title of Paul volcker's book Paul Vogler is the Fed chair that broke inflation back in the 1980s uh so you know and that was the major lesson at that point was that you cannot let the expectation of inflation remain and that the longer it remains elevated the higher the more likely it is that it continues to grow upon itself so if you completely haven't you know been in the news absolutely this is the 12 month CPI inflation data here we are still kind of right at this this elevated level but we've been flat we haven't gone up significantly recently we're still Manning kind of at this elevated level persistently but unfortunately we're staying there and the problem is he you know jpal will do these increases and people are expecting like all right well then two months from now we're gonna drop down to six no it takes a long time yeah yeah so he talked about that recently with the most recent fed uh kind of report where he was saying that you know traditional kind of research into the lag effects of inflate of interest rate hikes on inflation showed that it was a significant lag there you said more modern data is saying that it's actually a little bit shorter time Horizon I'm gonna try to find the actual economic papers and see if I can understand them um I do have background reading scientific literature just not in economics sorry to see if it kind of makes sense but in terms of the pce inflation which he has said is his favorite metric this is core pce you know we came up to this elevated level and we're just remaining there you know the massive unprecedented uh pace of these rate hugs we're still hanging out that same level this week is going to be another kind of big news one which is ironic because Powell has said that PC is his favorite metric CPI tends to be the one that moves the market more you know if you've noticed that yeah it's really weird I think it's I don't really know why he prefers pce but the market even if it's up 0.2 or down 0.2 that will dictate what happens that day it doesn't make any sense I don't know yeah so this this actual uh Thursday uh November 10th 8 30 a.m we get the CPI reading for October so expect a wild day regardless of what the direction you want to take there but it's going to move uh that's for sure because we're still at a place where it doesn't take very much data wise yeah all right well well guys let us know if you think hyperinflation is a legit risk or if you think that you know the bad is over we may get a little bit you know kind of uncomfortable but we're going to be better from here so I mean let us know
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