저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
요약 보기
버핏은 주식시장의 단기 방향은 예측하지 않으며 주식을 사업의 일부로 보고 기업 실적과 가치에 집중해야 한다고 강조한다. 주가에 과도하게 신경 쓰는 기질은 장기 성과의 적이라고 말한다. 연금펀드가 9% 이상 수익률을 가정하는 것은 비현실적이며 주식 장기 기대수익은 연 6~7% 수준이라고 본다. 또 기업 경영진의 대손상각 등 빅배스 회계 조작 문제를 지적한다.
다듬은 글
Charlie and I haven't the faintest idea where the stock market is going to go next week next month or next year we never talk about it you know it never comes up our directors will tell you that that they've never been to a director's meeting where they subject of the direction of the stock market we are not in that business we don't know how to be in that business uh obviously if we could guess successfully a high percentage of the time where the stock market was going to go we would do nothing but play the S&P futures Market there wouldn't be any reason to look at business and stocks so it's just not our game we don't think what we see when we look at a the stock market is we these thousands and thousands and thousands of companies priced every day and we ignore 99.9% of what we see although we run our eyes over them and then every now and then we see something that uh looks like it's attractively priced to us as a business forget about the word stock so uh when we buy stock we would be happy with that stock if they told us the market was going to close for a couple years we looked to the business it's exactly the same way as if you were going to buy a farm a few miles here outside of Omaha you would not get a price on it every day and you wouldn't ask you know whether the uh yield was a little above expectation this year down a little bit you'd look at what the farm was going to produce over time You' look at the expected yields You' look at expected prices the C taxes the cost of fertilizer and you would evaluate the intelligence of your purchase based on what the farm produced relative to your purchase price uh quotes would have nothing to do with it that's exactly the way we look at at at stocks we look at them as businesses we make judgments about what the futures of those businesses will be and if we're right about that in those judgments the stocks will take care of themselves Charlie nothing dead he's been practicing for weeks uh I do think that there's a lot to be said for developing a temperament that can own Securities without fretting I think that the fretful disposition is the it's it's an enemy of long-term performance well it's it's almost I think it's almost impossible if you're uh to do well in equities over a period of time if you go to bed every night thinking about the price of them I mean Charlie and I we think about the value of them but we we we would be happy just as in that movie if they Clos the stock exchange tomorrow you know dick Grasso wouldn't be happy and Jimmy McGuire our specialist wouldn't be happy it wouldn't bother me and Charlie at all we would keep selling bricks selling Dilly Bars selling candy riding Insurance you know a lot of people have private companies and they never get a quote on them you know we bought C's candy in 1972 we haven't had a code on it since does that make us wonder about how we're doing with C candy no we looked at the company results so you there's nothing wrong with focusing on company results focusing on the price of a stock is is dynamite because it really means that you think that the stock market knows more than you do now the stock market may know more than you do but then you shouldn't be in stocks I mean you you should have the stock market is there to serve you and not to instruct you so you need you need to formulate your ideas on price and value and if the price gets cheaper and you have funds you know logically you should buy more if and we do that all the time where we make our mistakes frankly is where we focus on price and value and we start buying and the price goes up a little and we quit you know like Charlie referred to we might have done on Seas candy a mistake like that cost us $8 billion in the case of Walmart stock a few years ago because it went up in price and you know we are not happy when things we're buying go up in price we want to go down and down and down and we'll keep buying more and uh hopefully we won't run out of money of course that's a different story the biggest financial asset that you have going for you by miles is the value of your own earning power over the years so that's really what you should focus on if you're focusing on your financial future that means you should fin focus on you because whether your 10% is worth 50,000 or 100,000 or 300,000 which would be 500,000 or a million or three million for all of you whether it turns out to be one or the other is really dependent uh in a very large part on what you do in the next few years all of you in this room have the brains to do extremely well in life you've all got the energy to do extremely well in life and then the question is how do you apply if you've got a 200 horsepower motor you get 200 horsepower out of it you get your full potential or do you get 100 horsepower or 50 horsepower now there's two things that can hold you back in getting the full horsepower out of your your engine whatever it may be all of you have big enough engines and one of those is a lack of education but that probably isn't going to happen to very many people in this room if you did have a lack of Education if you if you didn't have a chance to get a decent education in life it wouldn't make any difference what that potential was because you'd never unlock it but the second most important thing and equally as important is in terms of the habits that you develop in terms of what you do with yourself when we hire people we look for three qualities we look for integrity we look for intelligence and we look for energy but if they don't have the first one Integrity the other two will kill you because if you're hiring somebody without Integrity you really want them to be dum and lazy don't you I mean you know last thing in the world you want for him is to be smart and energetic so smart and energetic only goes with Integrity but the nice thing about you know you make your own decision on that you can't change your IQ or how far you can throw a football or how high you can jump or the color of your hair very easily but you can elect to have integrity that matches anybody else's and if you match that with intelligence which you have and energy which you you have uh you will get an extraordinary result and you'd be very foolish to sell me 10% of yourself for 50,000 on the other hand if you don't match it with that your potential will in a significant part go unused and I'll give you a little simple test to apply in terms of thinking about the kind of habits you want to develop because you can have any habits you want to be you can be you can be lazy you can be prompt you can be you can be late you can be honest you can cut Corners I mean you have all these choices and those are choices for you to make nobody else is going to make them for you and I would suggest that you play this little game with me too uh think about the person you would most like to be in life maybe it's one of your contemporaries maybe it's somebody a little older but pick out the person you admire the most the person that you'd change places with if you could and then write down why you admire them just put it on a piece of paper and then figure out the person that you would least like to change places with you who really turns you off who do you find and repulsive and list the reasons why that person turns you off so much and put those down on the other side of the paper and then look at that list and you'll find that everything on the left-and side what you admire in other people the qualities they bring to life um cheerfulness you know generosity all kinds of things you'll find those are things you can do yourself it's very simple got to apply yourself but the habits you form in doing that early on will carry you through life and on the other hand you'll find that the things that make people repulsive selfishness obnoxiousness all these things egotism are things that no one has to have if you find those in yourself you can get rid of them as long as you get rid of them early so all I suggest is that you write you write down a list of what what you admire what you find uh contemptible and decide that you know the ones on the on the admired side are are ones you're going to acquire for yourself and if you do that when you're young it'll carry you through the rest of your life this doesn't work if you do it when you're 50 or 60 by then the habits are too well formed uh but if you do it early Behavior becomes becomes a habit so if you do that two or three years from now if you go through the same exercise you'll find out that the person you admire the most is yourself that can be a little dangerous under some circumstances but it uh uh but it's not a it's not a bad thing I mean you want to be somebody you like you know I think shocks are a perfectly decent way to make six or 7% a year over the next 15 or 20 years but I think anybody expects to make 15% per year or expects their broker or investment adviser to make that kind of money is is living in the dream world and it's particularly interesting to me that back when the prospects for stocks were far better I even wrote something about this in the late 70s Pension funds were using investment rate assumptions that were often in the 6% or there by out range and now when the prospects are way poor most invest most Pension funds are using expect building into their calculations returns of 9% or better on investments I don't know how they're going to get 9% or better on investments but I also know that they change the investment assumption down it will change the charged earnings substantially and they don't want to do that so they continue to use investment assumptions which I think are quite unrealistic and with companies with a big pension component uh in their in their financial uh situation and therefore in their income statement that can be quite significant it'll be interesting to me to see whether in the next couple years where Pension funds are are experiencing significant shortfalls from their assumptions how quickly they change the assumptions and the consulting firms uh are not pushing them to do that at all it's very interesting the consulting firms are telling them what they want to hear which is hardly news to any of us but uh it's it's what's taking place Charlie yeah pension fund accounting is drifting into Scandal by making these unreasonable investment assumptions it's evidently it's just part of the human condition that people extrapolate the recent pass ped and uh so since returns from Common Stocks have been high for quite a long period they extrapolate that they will continue to be very high into the future and that creates a lot of reported earnings in terms of pension benefits that aren't available in cash and are likely not to be available at all and this is not a good idea and it's it's interesting how few corporate managements have just responded like Sam Goldman include me out You' think more people would just say this is a SC me a way to keep the books and I I will not participate instead everybody just drifts along with the tide assisted by all these wonderful Consultants yeah I don't think I don't know of any case in the United States right now and I'm sure there are some but ex except for the Pension funds that we take over I don't know of any case where people are reducing their assumed investment return now you think if interest rates drifted down several percentage points that that might uh affect what you would think would be earned with money it certainly is to to bond holders or to us with float or something of the sort uh but most major corporations I believe are using an investment return Assumption of 9% or higher and that's with long-term governments below 6% you know and maybe high-grade corporates at seven they don't know how to get it in the bond market they don't know how to get in the mortgage Market I don't think they know how to get it in the stock market but it would cause their earnings to go down if they change their investment assumption and I like I say I don't I don't know of a major company that's thinking about it and I don't know of a major actal consultant that's suggesting it to the managements it just they'd rather not think about it the way they're doing things would be like living right on a an earthquake fault that was building up stress every year and projecting that the longer it's been without an earthquake the less likely an earthquake is to OCC her that is a dumb way to write earthquake insurance and the current practice is a dumb way to do pension fund planning and accounting if you improper if you talk to a management or board of directors about that you get absolutely no place them oh they their eyes would glaze over before the hostility came second question about inventory writeoffs uh you know it that gets into the all the the category entirely of big bath charges which are the Tendencies of management um when some bad news is coming along to try and put all the bad news that's happened into a single quarter or a single year and even to put the bad news that they are worried about happening in the future into that year and it's uh it leads to real deception and accounting the SEC has tried to get quite tough on that but my experience has been that manag ments that want to do it um usually can find some ways uh to do it and and um managements frequently are more conscious of what numbers they want to report than they are of what is actually transpired in a given quarter or a given year
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