저자: Kevin · 외국인
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인프라 법안 통과 후 테슬라 상승 일부 되돌림. 하원 통과 전까지 실질 효과 불확실하며, 증세 등 후속 법안이 리스크. 향후 이틀간 발표될 CPI·PPI가 높게 나올 것으로 예상, 인플레이션 하락 전환은 9~10월 이후로 봄. 시장은 횡보·변동성 장세로 보고 롱콜옵션(LEAPS) 자제 권고. 포트폴리오는 부동산·코인·현금 분산을 강조하며 코인 비중 3~4%에서 확대 의향(최대 8%). 기업 실적 피크 우려 제기.
다듬은 글
everyone meet kevin here we didn't do a market open a live stream today and i'm questioning if we're going to be able to do a market close live stream so i want to do this update mostly because i don't feel too great i feel kind of worse than i have in the past few days even though i've kind of been sniffling and having a little bit of a sore throat and dry cough for like a week now which is really annoying and uh i have tested negative twice for covin but uh yeah anyway because you just have to get through it so in the meantime let's do a little bit of a recorded update here i try to get through this without coughing so look first we got to talk about the infrastructure plan some stocks are moving up a little bit after the hard infrastructure plan passed for example tesla initially moved up after the hard infrastructure plan passed we had some euphoria around tesla uh because of essentially the plan passing take a look at this you nearly saw a perfect trend up as soon as the bill passed now that has quickly sort of reverted here we're going right back down to under 7 10.
this is not a surprise mostly because the infrastructure plan passed the senate but it's not actually going to mean anything until the house passes it and the house won't pick it up until the fall the house is also probably going to hold the hard infrastructure package kind of hostage until they get the soft infrastructure package done so infrastructure is going to be a little bit of one of those things where the real fight is ahead of us not behind us and this is because even though the infrastructure package right now hard infrastructure trains bridges rails uh roads 7.5 billion for chargers and so on even though that's great and it adds 500 billion dollars roughly of new money even though that's great the big package is going to be in that's where we're potentially going to see an extension of the child tax credit and tax increases on people making over 400 000 specifically going to be looking at capital gains real estate investments those are things that could have negative implications to the market so infrastructure excitement i wouldn't really let any of that enthusiasm get to me in the market right now instead what's more important is what's coming up in the next two days we got cpi and ppp sorry ppi coming up cpi is consumer price index ppi is the producer price index over the next two days 5 30 in the morning these reports will be coming out we expect them not to be pretty we expect them to come in high we expect the numbers to potentially even beat expectations because we're really not planning for an inflection to the downside until september and october and the way things have been moving who knows if september and october's downward inflection will actually be there because while we might get a downward inflection and airline travel and use car prices especially if delta continues to surge we might see an equivalent increase in rental prices wages and other aspects like services where we already see inflation coming so next two reports they're going to be pretty big deals so we're going to want to keep an eye on these then what we also have to keep an eye on is something that kind of bugs me to say but it's true is folks diversification is the definition of 2021.
i'm not a big fan of diversification although i have generally advocated the met kevin.com basket pie if you type that into youtube or sorry just your web browser you'll see medkevin.com basket you'll see it's a sort of a pie of multiple different index funds and it makes it really easy to diversify not financial advice you know you don't have to invest in that doesn't matter but that's done very very well and usually when folks join the stocks and psychology of money group i start folks out really broad and then i narrow them down to special strategies like i mentioned this weekend i plan on releasing some new options lectures i also have some new lectures coming up for the real estate investment group although no uh no no exact deadline yet on when those new lectures are coming out for the real estate group and we talked about going from small deals to big deals so that's gonna be fun but uh anyway uh those courses are of course linked down below you all know you can get 40 off with a coupon code and you know the price goes up over time okay so moving on uh diversification has has been very good in 2021 and part of it is because right now in the bloomberg terminal we're getting a lot of talk about how all of these tech companies are kicking butt and how they're blowing out earnings but the market and market participants potentially believe that these companies are actually going to be at peak prices because maybe people have already bought their car they've already bought the stuff they want and next year's earnings comparisons are not going to be anywhere near as good as what we have now that is right now everything is a massive beat because last year things were slower so now we're getting these massive insane beats people have more money than they've had before spending money like crazy creating that inflation but then potentially next year we see a reversal so we've got a crazy market ahead of us and i hate to say it but it does make sense to diversify it makes sense not to be all in on crypto it makes sense not to be all in on tech it makes sense not to be all in on real estate i think a well-balanced portfolio has really a little bit of everything now i've been talking about rcc a lot lately right real estate ownership crypto and cash i still think these are three very very important things to diversify into so if you don't own real estate yet get into real estate get into a house that you can buy you can afford and you get house hack i don't care if it's a town home or a house get in get started 30 30-year fixed rate mortgage doesn't matter if the market falls ideally get a wedge deal which we talked about in the real estate investing course cash we want to have cash available for opportunities i think we're going to have plenty of uncertainty coming up over the next six months we just don't know when or where it's going to come we can't time that in the future but when the time comes you'll hear about it from me i'll be going all in okay then crypto have some exposure here i like having some exposure to crypto i personally don't think it's something i want to be all in on though and so this is why if i were looking at my portfolio right now and i were thinking how do i want to allocate new money i'd want to be allocating new money to those three things real estate crypto and cash the cash is going to end up turning into stock so and those stocks should probably be something relatively diversified maybe if the market does fall under some uncertainty we go into a balance of recovery stocks tax stocks and maybe some uh industrial stocks who knows some kind of nice of balance whatever we can figure that out when the time comes but that way we're looking at the money we have right now and trying to allocate it to three different places again real estate investments crypto and cash and we're not going over on any one of these three things it's really a big belief i have right now crypto many of you know it's only about three to four percent of my portfolio right now i do plan on increasing that i don't know that at any point i'll increase it more than eight percent of my portfolio since right now i'm pretty much 50 50 real estate and stocks although of course at this point i do have a chunk of cash and crypto available as well uh and i'm looking to increase positions so we'll probably end up with something that looks a lot more like uh 40 real estate 40 stocks and then 20 cash and crypto maybe half and half on that so uh anyway a lot of uncertainty coming in the market these inflationary readings over the next couple days are going to be really fascinating to pay attention to so be prepared for those and also be prepared uh stay away and i've mentioned this a few times before stay away potentially from too long of call options leaps i don't know this isn't really the kind of market for buying long call options in my opinion we'll see could obviously end up being wrong but otherwise market overall tech obviously sinking a little bit we do have a crazy run on fisker and 3d systems these are pretty incredible even microns doing very well a little bit of a pullback on cryptocurrencies right now but you've got recovery stocks popping up again yesterday they were down today they're up again like yesterday dave and busters and robin were down now they're up again kind of incredible how flip-floppy the market is but this is kind of the definition of a market that just sort of vacillates and doesn't necessarily really go anywhere you just kind of trade sideways for a while or slightly up and the best benefactor of a sideways trading market or a slightly trading up market quite frankly index funds i hate i hate to say it i won't go into index funds i will create my own sorts of m1 finance pies to diversify once we get to a little bit more of a market where i feel ah this is the moment to strike on picking up some bargain deals we're not there yet but these are my thoughts on the market hopefully they help you out hope i feel better soon and folks up we'll see in the next one check out the courses link down below thanks so much bye you
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