저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
섹터 로테이션 예측은 어렵고 개인투자자에겐 펀드 투자가 낫다고 말함. 좋은 투자 기업 기준으로 SMILE(Small in size, Medium in experience, Large in aspiration, Extra large market potential)을 제시. 소형이지만 15~20년 경력의 기업, 지역→전국→글로벌로 성장하려는 경영진, 성장하는 거대 시장을 조건으로 듦. 시장 규모가 커져야 기업 가치도 커진다고 설명. IPO는 과거 대부분 실망스러웠다고 평가하며 신중을 권고. 매수는 맞혀도 매도 타이밍이 어렵다는 질문에는 자신만의 보유 원칙을 세우고 매매 기록을 남겨 복기하라고 조언. 시장 전망 수치(지수 전망)는 언급되었으나 대상 자산 중 직접적 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
Hello good evening sir how to predict sector rotation first sir how to predict rotation predict that is like what I just told you that bull market is like a sunshine it is always there somewhere but for that you have to be mature for that you have to be educated it is not that easy just we hear the words that we can do sector rotation or should do sector rotation but for that one needs proper knowledge I think for an individual investor who has invested two four five years in the stock market, for him understanding sector rotation is a bit difficult in my opinion it is not easy for that you should invest through mutual funds ok sir and I would like to make one more request one question no no request brother with your lovely smile your smile formula for the people of Nagpur what did you say smile with smile very good smile formula your smile formula sir smile formula so okay let me tell you he also asked me how do I hold shares so my I follow the SMILE formula and S stands for small in size, M and I stand for medium in experience, large in aspiration and extra large in market potential.
All the shares that I have held in my entire life till date have only one simple formula behind them, SMILE. I hold a company which is small in its sector. It is not necessary that I hold a company worth Rs 100 crore. I go for the small in size ones in my sector. It is not necessary that you will become right after listening to this formula.
Please understand this also and proceed with this. What worked for me was that I have spent my entire life here. So small in size because I think that if an elephant has to move or run, it takes time. The rat will quickly turn around and run away. Right? So saying this, I chose a small in size company that should be small in its sector and medium in experience.
By saying medium in experience, I pick such a company which has worked hard for 15 years, in whatever field within its line it has done 10,000 kicks at one place, it has become so mature, it has seen two-three recessions, three-four booms and recessions and wars, it has seen this, it has seen that, in this way, that person has become so strong in experience that it is probably difficult for him to become zero, it is probably difficult to become zero, so he has worked in the same business for 15-20 years and he has experience by saying this and there are two things behind this that I generally do not do it in a company which is five years old.
Because of this, I did not invest in any new age company. I have invested in a startup. But that is a very limited investment of mine, there is no substantial investment in it which I do in the secondary market. Right now, I don't do whatever 2%, 4% or 5% is inside them. So this is medium in experience and large in aspiration.
This is very important because if the management does not aspire to become big. If the management does not become a billionaire, then the shareholder will not become a lakhpati or crorepati within his company. So it is important to have the aspiration that I was a regional company. I will transform from a regional company to a national company.
From national I will become a global company. I will become a multinational. My market share is 3%. After 10 years I will have a 15% return. This is his important aspiration. If it doesn't have aspiration. Generally what happens is that a company migrates from micro cap to small cap. A company worth Rs 100-200 crore earns up to Rs 1000-1500 crore.
Then you will see that his aspiration ends. He enjoyed everything in life. He got everything. Now he wonders what to do. Enough is enough, this has happened, that has happened. In that his future gets ruined within him. So that aspiration is necessary. You will listen to the companies' calls. You will go into that as their analyst.
You will read their annual report. You will get an idea from their interviews etc. which keep coming on TV and from the interviews which brokers etc. keep posting. So this is medium and experience and extra large market potential. So, in my opinion, it is most important that a company worth Rs 500 crore will become worth Rs 5000 crore only when its market size will be Rs 500 crore.
If its market size is not that big then despite having the aspiration, it will not be able to become that big. For example, I will give an example, think about the biggest company in India which manufactures air coolers, that is Symphony and the turnover of Symphony company is 13100 crores, you think about it being the leader and the turnover of just one company is 1300, 1400 crores and for the last 5 years it is stuck at 1000 crores, 1200 crores, 1300 crores, so in that market, I am not talking about Symphony [sound of clearing throat], I am just giving an example, so the market size should be so big, extra large that the market size itself is increasing every year for 10 years, 10%, 15% or 5% or 12%, the market size price is also increasing, so staying in that company in the long term will create wealth.
Hello sir my name is Kunal. Sir, this side there, there sir, my name is Kunal. The question is that recently a lot of IPOs had come out, out of which a lot of IPOs like that of Zomato, it completely fell. People apply for grey market premium. So should this be applied or not and should it be kept for the long term or not ?
It is like this brother Kunal brother, I do not remember in my life that I invested in any IPO, so it is not that it might have been very good, it could be possible that I missed many opportunities, but I am happy about that, the IPOs that come now, the IPOs that used to come earlier, used to come at a reasonable rate, now what if the merchant bankers etc.
all get together and do all that manipulation, all those inflated IPOs come and come within the inflated price. You have already seen the engine here, whatever IPOs might have come in the last 1-2 years, let's say 50 IPOs might have come, so it is possible that one or two might have given good performance or five might have given good performance, you have seen the condition of the remaining 30-40, I have the same YouTube channel sir, I also tell only about IPOs on my YouTube channel, I tell only about IPOs on my YouTube channel, yes on the channel, but whatever else is told on the channel is it true or false, should we believe those who tell about the share market or not, one should not follow anyone blindly, I think I do not have any idea about the YouTube channel.
Someone was telling me that it comes on YouTube. All the Pandits are registered there, so be a little cautious of them, I do n't want to say much about this person right now. So I don't know in YouTube. But whatever you hear on TV etc., you should think for yourself. You should not blindly follow anyone.
Because sir, this is your stubbornness. This is your experience. He is a new boy who tells so much. Sir, there are those new boys who say that they do not have any experience but have 5 years of experience and are giving knowledge on YouTube. So you yourself are telling with your own mouth that you are new and have no experience.
Then whether he tells the truth or not. So after listening to them, they are going to date you without any hesitation. What I was saying, Sir, is that you should also open a YouTube channel. I open the YouTube channel. Then I too am like this, is anyone going to talk about me like this again? Thank you sir.
Hi. A good evening sir. Good evening to all of you sir, today our share market is running at 55, 55000, 60000 Sussex and I see that by 20235 it is going to go above 1100 and because our country has the largest young generation in the entire world, 35, 40% youth is our country. So in the coming times, these youth are also going to make huge investments.
But the problem is that sir, you should also sit down. The company is quite good. We say goodbye to him many times. That means we are right 50 times out of 100. Ask more questions. Yes. Sir 100 went. Ask questions. You are telling that you are asking. Sir, I am asking that 50 out of 100 times we are right to say buy.
But we are not able to be tight while selling it. As it is said that there is a difference between buy right and sell right, sir, how should we manage it? You should ask Motilal Oswal. [laughs] This is his [laughs] This is his [laughs] The tagline is by rights and seat tight. I don't know this, friend.
Actually my mind went somewhere else after listening to you for so long. What do you want to ask, please ask the middle hello question and repeat it once. The question is the same that we should buy the stock. We become right but when it starts increasing, for example, if we bought it for Rs 100, it becomes Rs 150 and we sell it out of impatience.
Later we also see 200, 250, 300. So we correct the bye to right many times. But they are not able to hold it for the right time. Please guide us for that sir, what should we follow so that we can hold it tightly. Let me tell you one thing. Just now a gentleman had asked the same thing that he had asked for 25-30%, if I get 25-30% then I will sell it.
That thing, that question, you are the answer to that. You do one thing. Look at this formula, you have to choose a path. You are not so smart here that you will think that if you buy any share then it will be completed in 25%. 25% will leave. And in the second share you will find out the formula, I will keep it for 3 years.
Generally this is difficult to happen. You should try a formula and find out what suits you. What did you think about your shares when you bought them? When you sit in a train, you must know that the train will leave at this time, it will go to this destination at this time, it will reach here. You don't get off that train midway, do you?
You must have taken some or the other share there by understanding that it is yours. So, whatever you have understood , you [sound of clearing throat] follow that. This is simple. While taking it, follow whatever comes to your mind. But this does not necessarily mean that it became Ram's statement. You cannot change because of that.
You can also change from that. But Sir, I want to tell you that investment in the stock market is a 24*7 business for individual investors. This is not a side business where you are sitting in a shop or in a factory. I was doing some other work and suddenly someone said that I should buy shares, so I took knowledge from my driver's uncle, neither did I study nor did I go to college, I listened to people, selected penny stocks, lost so much money, it was fun.
Ok? So the fun, as she told madam, is enjoyed by your broker. So, you have to decide what were your thoughts when you bought those shares. You should be strict on that and this regret will remain with you all the time that sometimes if you spent 25 rupees then it becomes 200 and sometimes if you did not spend 25 rupees out of 200 then it comes down again.
So you should always keep observing yourself. When he said in the stock market, K.Y.S. You should evaluate yourself daily as to where I am making mistakes. Where am I doing right? Check your entire past track record. Write it down. Don't keep it in your mind. Write it down. What was I thinking when I bought this share and what did I do with it ?
When did it come out, why did it come out? Write the reason for that and what happened after that? So you will have to learn this on your own, sir. You cannot learn by following someone.
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