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hello and welcome to protrader strategies Market commentary for Monday July the 10th my name is Eric Wilkinson some of you may recognize me as the Wolfman from CNBC Fox Business or even the Wall Street Journal for my commentary on everything from economic to geopolitical and market analysis please keep in mind that everything that we talk about in these Market commentaries is not a solicitation to buy or sell any of these Securities or strategies at the end of the day we're here to teach you some different strategies you can Implement into your portfolios but please do that in your own way the reason why I can't give you a recommendation on a particular stock or strategy is because I don't know your risk prameters I don't know what's in your portfolios and therefore what I'm doing could be counterintuitive to what you are already doing please remember the past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results having all that out of the way it is a Monday not a whole lot of economic data out there to drive the market but everybody should be happy because the broader markets are up across the board as we can see here with crude oil Futures up 37 cents uh 36 Cents in give or take hasn't made that newer low so that is going to be what the Bears are trying to get later on this week we do get crude oil inventories but in the meantime there is still a glut of oil out there despite the last reading we got was uh a big draw down so crude oil is fighting and cl F its way uh really battling it out wasn't negative territory earli on today but as the broader markets have turned it's kind of like this Market is turned as well I thought it was going to be one of the ones that stayed negative on the day but it's not showing uh that right now now we have the gold Futures up slightly about $2.50 give or take still looking at this possible Head and Shoulders type of pattern going on here um one could claim that it's really more of a tweezer top here but this uh didn't really break above the high here so one could you know it's it's a little bit gray it's not like a perfect uh setup right now and we definitely would need to come down below this area to complete that pattern so somewhere below 1,200 in order to kind of start to make that look a little bit more complete if you will maybe even one could say down here into the 1180 area all right but gold Futures uh up on the day as well got the bonds again positive by only 11 ticks getting stuck right here uh at the point of control which is where I thought we were going to be spending a lot more time uh because the FED has indicated that they're going to continue to increase rates and when the market is rallying in uh the bond say that's taking out uh probabilities of those raid hikes now this week we do have Janet Yellen speaking uh or testifying in front of Congress we also have several other uh fed Governor speaking so that could get a little bit more information as to what they're really thinking I think Bernard is even speaking tomorrow he's one of the first ones to start and then Janet Yellen starts uh her testimonies all right uh but bonds up slightly but right there at the point of control Dow Jones up 24 points albeit that's not a big move for the Dow Jones it is positive on the day and back above that 5day moving average making it really look like uh is trying to move a little bit higher and then um we've got the NASDAQ probably leading the way up 35 points on the day above the 5day now we did get this little bit of a cross here which is a slight uh bearish tone so the Bulls are going to want to get above that 50-day moving average and try and peel that back into line which is kind of what you see here uh it's a little bit slow uh moving but we could easily see that happening especially if we start trading up into the 5800 area then the e- mini S&P is up five six points give or take but well above yesterday's high or well above sorry the uh 5-day moving average uh that is going to now act as support and we're right there back to this volume node so could be starting to build that out economic data is light early on in the week better going forward uh later on in the week and if we look at the 15 or sorry the 30- minute chart of the &ps you can see we pretty much retraced the entire day session uh or the overnight sess session within the day session we got a little bit higher to go to print those overnight Highs but it looks like that's probably uh pretty sure to happen I know a few things that I've done now on Friday I covered this Verizon I actually talked about this in the webinar just uh briefly which was on the short call spreads was a great one I think a lot of people took a lot away from it as a matter of fact it was uh fully subscribed so if you weren't able to get in there uh that's why uh was because it was over subscribed in a sense so um that's one reason I guess getting in there early is so that you don't get bumped out or locked out but anyway with Verizon if you guys remember I had on the July was uh long the 47 puts and then short the 42 puts now with that I ended up paying $2.40 for that strategy but with that dogee here now of course it wasn't confirmed uh as a bottom but this dogee at any extremes has a tendency to really uh act as support that's just a very bullish uh dogee so I excuse me didn't want to wait uh to get it confirmed I just uh covered it probably a little bit earlier probably cover it a little bit better today but again it's not confirmed to the upside so if you want to ride that out you can do so but I've already gotten out of it and I got out for $3.3 so not quite the uh 50% of Max profit that I'm looking for there but at the end of the day a dollar gain is a dollar gain right so uh I covered the Verizon maybe a little bit earlier but I'm I'm not going to uh look back on it TBT is also a trade I added late in the day I saw something come across where uh was some unusual activity in TBT now uh TBT is inversely related to TLT now uh you know that I've been bearish on TLT so this Market is inverse of that so as the market uh it's basically a triple leverage so if we're going to get more of a pullback uh in TBT it means TLT might have a tendency to take a little bit of a balance there was a lot of volume in there 37,000 contracts traded in TBT at the August 37 put so decided to go in there and maybe make it more of a little bit of a hedge against my TLT and paid a1.2 for it now today with the Theta Decay and everything else you can probably get it a little bit better despite the fact that it is slightly down on the day uh but TBT looking for it to come down a little bit um and if not you know then uh I'm kind of right there so I just need a little bit of move to make that a good trade then with Nvidia Nvidia is one that I covered today and if you remember I had on a strangle in there and decided to just pull it because it or pull the rip cord on it because I'm at 50% of my Max profit on it and with uh Nvidia if you remember I was short the uh sorry the July 138 170 strangle in there and originally sold it for $2.78 remember I did that when the volatility was increasing which it really hasn't abated really but directionality came back into that middle of that range if you can see on the chart here my 138s were being tested now because I collected such a nice credit for it I wasn't really too worried about it but today we got that nice little bounce up to the value area high it came right in line with 50% of my Max profit on that so I covered it so uh out of Nidia that one worked out quite nicely despite the fact that it didn't look very good in the beginning but remember we're playing the probabilities here I knew the probabilities were still in my favor uh I could always be in that uh strangle is I could always roll down those 170 calls collect a little bit more credit if things weren't working out very good but I I stuck with that one and played the probabilities never really tested my Brak even on that Nvidia trade so uh I was uh off the hook there if you will so if you watch my video on these I talk about when and where it is to be mechanical and start rolling those traits to collect more credits and things of that nature it didn't breach that so I stayed with my rules and that ended up working out nicely now on to Walmart Walmart's just one that's just not really wanting to work out very well I thought we were going to get more of a bounce out of Walmart you know it really took a hit when Amazon came out with the news that they were going to buy out Whole Foods which could negatively affect the grer part of Walmart I don't think that's the case I think Walmart's got a pretty good uh thing going there I don't think uh Whole Foods is big enough really to take that market share necessarily away from Walmart so I thought that they were going to get more of a bounce which it did in a sense but before it got to a point where I was going to be losing money on this I decided to pull it especially with today's market activity breaking below that value Area High decided now is the time to get out while the getting's good and I had on the September and was long the uh or sorry short the 722 puts in there and I originally sold them for $160 bought them back today for $155 so made a slight Prof profit on that but uh it's really too close to uh the market for me to be really comfortable especially um just because the way the chart's setting up just doesn't look too good so I just decided to pull the rip cord on that got that gut feeling and uh pulled the rip cord on it then uh Texas Instruments this is another one I covered 50% of my Max profit so right in line with my rules there Texas Instruments ticker symbol txn uh I had on the um what was it the July uh 70 puts in there I sold the July 70 puts in there it's the 70 puts maybe might have to check that could be the uh sold the July 72 puts either are 70 72 puts I'll have to double check on that um but anyway uh decided to cover that with that nice little bounce that we got today and that ended up working out quite nicely actually it's the July 76 puts cuz remember um I am short the July 76 puts and then later on uh I have on the July 77 1/2 puts as well so uh I added the 76 puts later when we got that market move it down it came down tested those 77 and a half puts threw on another trade thought that this 200 day moving average would hold uh hold the market up which it did it acted as support quite nicely so those 77 and half puts I still have on I sold those 77 half puts for about 87 cents sold the 7 76 puts a little bit later when I got tested for 80 cents bought the 76 puts back for 39 so 50% of my Max profit on the 76 puts the 77 and A2 puts really still aren't out of the uh running yet they're very close they're out of the money but I need a little bit more even uh of a bounce before I get 50% of my Max profit on that so that's all I've gotten done today uh I haven't added too many trades pretty quiet in the markets and uh haven't found a whole lot of opportunity but uh this Friday we're going to be doing a webinar on this short put spread so it's going to be great for high implied volatility markets I'm going to show you how to even build this out to increase your risk parameters so if you're a newer Trader and you like to really go out there and you're comfortable with buying puts and things of that nature or buying calls for directionality I'm going to show you how to do this and increase your probabilities of success with short strategies where you're collecting a credit your probabilities of success are so much better than if you're out there uh just trying to buy calls and things of that nature somewhat like what I did in TBT I went out there and bought some puts now I know that's a low uh uh probability of success strategy but every once in a while you can throw those in there you just don't want to make that your uh main strategy in any portfolio because it's really a low probability strategy but I know there was risk going into it and was willing to accept it with this particular trade all right so that's all I got for you guys today go to protrader strategies.com sign up for that short putut uh webinar and get in there earlier because we've been over subscribed for the last couple of them all right that's all I got for you today if you can't take that take it easy
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