저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
텍사스 부동산은 오스틴 중간가격이 지지선에서 반등 중이라 바닥 가능성이 있다고 주장하며, 30년물 국채금리가 2007년 이후 최고 수준이라 부동산에 부담이라고 언급. 가렌드 소재 1,800sqft 매물(18만 달러)을 리노베이션 후 ARV 31.2만 달러로 추정해 수익성이 좋다고 소개. 코네티컷 ADU 미허가 건은 가격 인하 협상(목표 67.5만~70만 달러) 권고. 전반적으로 Reinvest 앱 홍보 성격 강함.
다듬은 글
Two crazy topics about real estate investing that we need to discuss. Number one is from Foley, who says she lives in Texas but doesn't think it's the best market for small investors right now. Her research points to New York as the place with the best capitalization. What should she do? Should I buy it myself or go to New York?
We'll talk about it and I'll show you how and what to look for in Texas. We will also discuss the Texas market and how to make money there, but I want to touch on another issue. This is Bill's strange situation: he put down a $725,000 deposit on a deal where the property was advertised as having a fully functional additional living space that Bill planned to rent out while living there, justifying the $725,000 price tag for the Connecticut property.
And then, 5 days before the deal closes, a surprise arises: it turns out that this premises may not be legalized for you. It may only be allowed for current owners, but not necessarily for you, and there is no guarantee that the permission will remain with you. So, we will analyze both situations and figure out what exactly needs to be done.
The first thing we will say is: if you want to join this discussion and add your comments to such real estate posts, you want to have your say in this investor community. You can do this those are the questions I answer here. So let's get to the point. Foley, let's start with this. This is a question about Texas.
We have an answer that says, if you've watched Kevin's early videos, he says that one of the rules is to always buy property within a 30- minute drive of your home. And it's not just so you can come and fix something if it breaks. I myself never go and have never run to a rental property to fix something personally when people live there.
I don't want to see the tenants, okay? You should not build a relationship with a tenant, as this blurs business boundaries. But I worked a lot on the objects myself before handing them over. Sockets, painting, flooring—it doesn't matter what. So the 30 minute rule is really there to make sure you understand what's going on in the area.
Do I want to be doing a Craigslist deal there at 9pm? Do I feel safe in this area? Do you think a future buyer or tenant would feel this way? How is this area developing? Is it on the rise or on the decline? And here you have to be careful, because it's very easy to search for real estate on the Internet, which is what we're going to do now, right?
We ourselves can become victims of our own warning. But I realized: when we were buying for House Hacking and essentially this company with a hundred million dollars in real estate assets, we flew to every market we were looking at. So , we flew to Atlanta, Tennessee, Denver, Colorado, different parts of Colorado, Utah , different parts of California, different parts of Florida.
We were all over the country. This is just some of the places we've been, right? Manhattan. We searched everywhere. You have to be on the ground to understand the situation, meet people, talk to them to understand what's happening. The 30-minute rule makes it easier for you. You don't have to pack your bags, you don't have to live in a hotel.
The cost of this is just crazy. The cost of your time, flights, hotels, and small- scale hassles kill the ROI. Better to buy locally and then think about hedging capital, right? So let's think about buying in Texas. Texas has historically had this peak post-Covid period that many have had to grapple with, wondering if this is the bottom.
I actually think the bottom has already been reached. For example, in Austin, Texas, we have already bounced off almost the same levels three times. We peaked around 650, then dropped to 525, 512, 525 , 525, and 518. In other words, the median home price in Austin has already reached a support level, like in stock market trading, where you keep bouncing off one floor, which is a bit of an indication that a bottom has been reached.
This doesn't necessarily mean we'll be growing anytime soon, as 30-year Treasury bonds are at their highest level since 2007. Tough times for real estate, right? But it's a sign that the significant drop, the 20–25% that we saw in Austin, is probably behind us, and that's a good thing. This is an optimistic signal .
So, you know what we can do? Well, there are many things we can do. I think the best thing to do is to look for a local deal. For example, I just quickly opened the Reinvest app and it took me about 3 minutes to find a deal that I thought, "Okay, this is interesting." do a little more, you know, research.
This is a very early beta version of the product, so, you know, I always say that today it's in the worst state it's ever been . It will get better and better over time as we continue to improve our software. And that's what we do. Just so you know, we're a company that owns a lot of real estate, probably if we combine our liquid assets and real estate, that's over a hundred million dollars in assets without bank debt, right?
This is the kind of company we are. We love buying houses, but we also develop software. So, is it Homes AI, as we call it, or stock AI products. You know , we're working hard on developing them, and we're really passionate about them. And again, they get better every day. So, here is the object I saw .
It caught my attention because, you know, the carpet looks a little strange. Here, the drywall has peeled off near the bathtub . You know, they didn't even close the toilet lid when they took the picture. He has these old purple curtains, which, you know, is usually a big red flag for me, or rather, a green flag in terms of value.
And there's also an original wooden laminated countertop and these foil cabinets with an old electric stove, or should I say, a stove. All of this means to me: "Okay, this has some potential." So, the app suggests that you could potentially make $69,000 in profit on the value if you purchase this. We'll work with these numbers some more, but it says that if you spend $63,000 on renovations, buy for $180,000, and your after- renovation value (ARV) would be $312,000.
Well, if that's true, I'd rather buy this option and secure myself with a good deal, and then let the market do what it's supposed to do. So, let's take a look at this property. I entered it. I already entered Garland , Texas, right here. I entered this into the search for properties for sale. This is this area.
One thing to keep in mind is that the lot fronts on this road, whatever it's called, Northwest Road. This doesn't look like a highway. 635 is like a highway, you know? But it partially borders something that looks like a four-lane highway . It's better than being one of those houses that faces the road, because here you just have a corner lot with plants or something.
Well, not bad. This option is listed for $180,000. At first glance, just looking around the area, it's $100,000 cheaper for 1,800 square feet, four bedrooms, probably two and a half baths. So , I have an extra bedroom and an extra 150 square feet compared to this house for 310, which, you know, doesn't look that fantastic .
I mean, he's normal. I can't tell if they're mini blinds or two- inch faux wood ones, but I still have, you know, blinds like grandma's. And I understand that this is just a small image. I should open it, but it's like a roommate situation. Well, it's actually... look at this. Look at the floor. It literally looks like a child ran a knife across this floor and scratched all over the covering.
This place looks like a dump. There are some strange granny curtains here. Some crazy design, crazy flooring situation. They are asking 310 for this. I understand that this is just the price they are asking. The asking price is not the same as the actual selling price. Of course, we know that. But, you know, this is madness.
That's 310, and we have 180. Do you understand? And I also have this one for $315,000. By the way, prices were reduced for all three . So, the market is softening a bit, there is something to think about. Probably because it's really hot right now, I guess. What is this ? This is the weather in Garland, Texas.
Let's just do a quick Google search. Yeah, man, it's 100 degrees Fahrenheit out there right now, it's horrible. So, of course, it's hard to sell a house right now. Listen, what's the temperature now? The temperature outside is 93-94 degrees. I don't know, I was indoors all day . It's 84 now. You see, it's even too hot for us.
OK. Here's a house for $315,000, the flooring is terrible, but overall it's livable. Let's just say, if it had a good floor, it would cost about $315,000. What did they say, how much does this place cost? Oh, you must be joking. Look at this. The app told me that this place costs around 312. That's pretty good.
That's pretty damn good, right? And I think this is still a conservative estimate, because if this house costs 315 with better flooring, it's still 150 square meters. feet smaller. We can be conservative . We have a fourth bedroom here. So I would say 312–315 for this location—that's probably about right.
Maybe closer to 320, something like that. OK. The problem is that we're going to have to renovate this place a bit. And we need to look at sales analogs. So let 's look at sold analogs to find out how much housing in this area is actually selling for. I only have one similar two-bedroom in the area.
And here's this option, it's strange that it's displayed as sold. Maybe it was a flip, and this is its previous value. In Texas, it's hard to determine market value, so you have to look at when they were pending sale and assume the sale price is a percent or two different. So this is an analogue for about 260.
An analogue for 260 for what looks like a renovated two-bedroom apartment , 700 sq m. feet smaller, but in the same area. I don't usually like to compare a two-bedroom house to a three-bedroom, but it's the same neighborhood. And this is a recent sale. So I can use that as a lower threshold for the score, right?
Here are 20 photos I have on realtor.com. Flip level. This is the same flooring from Lowe's for $2.50. Flip level, I don't know why they rolled up the carpet under the dishwasher right here. It just pisses me off. To me, this is like a little red flag of a flip. And I don't think this overlay fits the countertop and apron properly, but that's just me being too picky .
And they didn't take care of the yard, even though it's 100 degrees outside, which is not uncommon. OK. So, let's take 260 as an analog. We actually get Texas sales data in our data through the backend, but I look at it as a normal consumer. Here is a larger version. So, this one should beat us on sale price.
It must be over three hundred , I hope. Uh-huh. Sold for 310. That's almost exactly three hundred. This was at the end of 2025 , about a year ago. Do you know if prices have really increased compared to last year? From 530 to 557, yes . 557 divided by 530, this is an increase of about 5%. That just brings me to level three hundred.
That's reasonable. Because if it sold for 300, we add 5%, it comes out to about 315. Hey, that's literally what we're targeting . Now, to be fair , this one is bigger, and you have to look at the condition. Oh, these are old or original painted cabinets. So, this is not a condition for resale. Various floor coverings.
Are these all the photos? Semi-gloss ceiling. Although there is a new window, that's good. Old floor. Uh -huh. It could have been better. Oh, there it is. Cheap repairs for resale. This is normal. Although I don't like the floor at all . What the hell is this? Is this a mural? That's right. It looks strange.
Oh, yes. Armstrong ceiling, carpeting here. So this is not even a resale level. Honestly, 315 is a fair price, because such an object for resale would cost 340. So, 315 is a fair price. My point is that this is an application...or, sorry, not an application. So, of course there is an application. But here's an object that took me 5 minutes to find and analyze in Texas .
$63,000 for 1,800 square feet. This is, to be honest , quite reasonable. $63,000 in Texas with that kind of budget, we're not going to overpay. This is probably a reasonable option for $71,000. Here's how you can protect yourself. Buy cheap, like here. That's what I would do . I think this is a great job by our "benefit search engine," as we call it.
I'm actually going to add other questions. Too good. That's not really how I evaluate using AI. I'm just sending this to our development team. This is more of a note for background work. But it was...it was just perfect. Now, obviously, not all the things our AI tool does will be so perfect. It was really apt and just happened to coincide with someone asking a question about Texas.
But that's my opinion on this man from Texas. Now let's analyze this case. This person, Bill, owns a property for which he has made a deposit of $725,000. So I've already spent some time and compared similar objects. Overall, I think he really got a very good deal. The fact that he's taking it for 725 -- I hope the seller doesn't see this video -- but for him personally, it's a really good deal for 725.
I say it's a good deal because this lot is about an acre, which is like a lot size that's very important in this area. It's a much smaller house, similar lot size, older house , but under renovation, and it's priced at $680. So you're effectively getting 2,000 more square feet for $45,000, but there's a problem: Were you sold a property with an accessory dwelling unit (ADU) that's not actually legal?
Well, and to be honest , they probably knew about it, which is why they decided to take $725,000 instead of $ 799, hoping you wouldn't find out. But you found out right before the deal closed. So, they almost tricked you. But here's the opportunity you have. What I would do is go back to them and try to lower the price by $50,000.
Because I'm thinking: first of all , it might take me 50 grand in paperwork, time, and hassle to get a permit for this ADU. But if I can, ideally, get permission so that no one else has to go through this crap in the future, and if I can do it cheaper, then that's a big win. But I want them to pay for it , knowing that if I have to resell, someone will make me pay for it again to get this temporary permit that is passed on to others.
So I would find out: first, can I get permission without this stupid "exception"? I need a permanent permit. How much will it cost? I want the seller to pay for it, otherwise I'm breaking the deal, okay? That would be my position in the negotiations. If I can get it for less than 700, I'll take it without hesitation, because honestly, there are similar properties that suggest this could be an $850,000 home .
Uh, this is the analog that, considering the time... it was built in 2006, so it's a little newer, the lot is a little bigger , and it's a little smaller inside, but it's a pretty good option that was sold, probably, a year and a half ago or something. So, if we adjust for time, yeah, okay, about a year and a month ago.
If I adjust this option, I think it easily justifies 850. And that's a pretty decent equivalent for your real estate. Which is great. This means you have the opportunity to add more “meat ” to your deal. More protection for you, more risk insurance. Uh, try to bring down the price. Anything less than seven, in my opinion, is a win.
If I could get to 675, my ego would grow 10 times, because I'm looking at this counterpart for 680. It's 2,000 square feet smaller, the lot is similar , and I'm like, "Bro, let's do it." Eh, that's my opinion on the matter . So you should definitely take this as an opportunity, Bill. I think you have a good option here.
So , my opinion on these housing issues. And, as always, we invite you to check out our Homes AI tool and use the coupon on the site. You can go to meetreinvest.com to see the produc.
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