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hey everyone kevin here back on the set y'all love so much to talk about the stock market well let's do just that mark cuban says right now don't get greedy this is like the 1990s tech frenzy others say that no no this time is different but there's one thing i think we can all agree on the stock market has been nuts and we are about to experience insane volatility surrounding q2 earnings we've got covet news we've got vaccine news and we're about to see footage from the new game halo infinite ahead of the xbox series x reveal this makes me nervous and excited excited for halo and nervous about everything else this video is going to be concise but detailed here's exactly what you're going to get in this video and remember when you see this set it's education only we're not focused on news in this set number one what's happening and why are valuations so nuts i'm going to give you a very quick primer on this this is very very important number two i'm going to talk about the dangers and the choices that we have right now then also very important i'm going to explain my exact strategy to you including my stock portfolio which targets i have like price targets for certain companies which stocks i'm focused on and how i'm diversifying my cash right now am i selling am i holding cash what am i doing let's get started so you know what's on my mind as a long-term investor speaking of it speaking of which excuse me it sounded german which i was born in germany but anyway speaking of which if you are a short-term trader remember do the opposite of whatever i say because it seems like when i sell a stock it skyrockets the next day and when i buy a stock it goes down the next day so there you go for all of you all traders but for those of you medium and longer term traders i've made substantial profits over just the last four months not to brag but the profits are over seven figures which for my portfolio is a big chunk it has been absolutely insane and yeah it also makes me nervous but judge me on my long-term succes with weeble check out my new youtube course and of course my real estate investing course links down below and let's get started on this okay let's first talk about something that we're not hearing enough about we know that the federal reserve started bailing out the corporate bond market which led to a lot of enthusiasm in the stock market but enthusiasm doesn't create money how much money did the fed actually invest into the corporate bond market so far because we all keep saying the fed's bailing everything out right but let's look at the numbers the fed injected one point three billion dollars via corporate bond purchases we'll call those c bonds this led to a lot of enthusiasm obviously the feds started buying bonds like crazy at the bottom of the market starting on march 23rd and again in april and early april this this was good yes it helped the market but people need money to be able to invest in the stock market and the reality is it's becoming more and more clear that over the last three months a lot of the 200 billion dollars from the paycheck protection program money went to businesses which are now over like 87 percent open to pay worker payrolls and guess what the bosses can do they can now take if they want and i'm assuming a lot of them are doing this a substantial portion of their payrolls or payroll coverages via ey're able to take a lot of free money and potentially put the stock market 200 billion dollars went to the ppp a lot of that money was not needed by a lot of the companies that got it and a lot of this money hasn't even been allocated yet which means it's available for companies to spend on stocks and when i say it's not allocated yet i mean that companies might have gotten their check and then realized like our business is operating as usual what do i do it does all this extra money we're not going to give it back to the government obviously this money comes from the fed indirectly but it's flowing through the ppp there is still an additional 110 billion dollars that hasn't even been sent to companies yet for the ppp look at this compared to the magnitude of the fed buying corporate bonds it's like this was literally just the signal going yo y'all buy stocks and then this was uh we're bailing out the people on businesses no you're giving money to wealthy people or businesses yeah there are going to be probably you know a lot of restaurants and businesses that need this money to survive but let's be real when lawyers and accountants and and celebrities and rich politicians are getting ppp loans in the neighborhood of millions of dollars to cover their payroll come on we know a lot of this is going into the stock market here let me put it a different way during the first or the the second quarter here when the ppp money came out i don't know but somehow a same 200 billion dollars happened to inflow into hedge funds and hedge funds ain't people like you and me buying stuff on robin hood okay big money is going into hedge funds and it's coming from somewhere and it ain't from a 1.3 billion dollars in fed corporate bonds then we've got about 150 billion dollars that went out in stimulus checks right okay fine we don't know how much of that actually went to uh you know the stocks i'm sure a portion of it did and a portion of it went to actually help stimulate the economy fine i get that but what about this below this line here this is really interesting and it's something you've got to pay attention to six to ten billion dollars folks this is really important per month six to ten billion dollars per month is going to mortgage forbearance and that's backstopped by the fed banks pay the first four months of missed payments and then the fed swoops in and pays the rest if you have a 2 000 a month mortgage you skip it for a year you have 24 000 more that you can invest in the stock market meanwhile you only have to pay that 24 grand back at the end of 30 years it's literally like an interest-free loan it's nuts that's why i made a video saying rule change for mortgage forbearance i'll link it down below i'll link it up here so you can watch it put it in another tab watch it take mortgage forbearance take care forbearance take credit card forbearance folks this is free money take the forbearance unless you're planning on buying real estate within like the next you know three to six months maybe don't take forbearance but you should take my real estate investing course because i'll teach you step by step the psychology of investing in real estate anyway here's the scoop i've run some numbers and my estimates are that about six to ten billion dollars per month are being basically injected into the economy thanks to mortgage forbearance alone that doesn't even consider credit card forbearance it doesn't consider student loan forbearance or whatever other kind of forbearances there are this is solely mortgage forbearance and my guess is a good chunk of that is literally going into the stock market because again people have a choice between savings and they have a choice of the stock market right now the stock market looks sexy then you've got 6 billion dollars a month per month and this is created by the pandemic unemployment assistance program basically oost six billion dollars per month is the money that's being injected into the economy thanks to the pandemic unemployment assistance program that's the six hundred dollars per week it's less than the mortgage forbearance which my guess is anybody who owns a house which people could be unemployed owning a house or real estate as well my guess is that people owning real estate probably are more likely to put their money in stocks because they're already exposed to owning assets this is like what i talk about in my money and stocks program where i talk about the psychology of building wealth the psychology of building assets and the psychology of investing in stocks it's a really really good program if you have not yet checked that one out remember you can bundle coupon if you want to have multiple programs then we have a question mark for the future of stimulus that's yet to come which this is already being somewhat built into stock prices as people are sort of bidding up the stock market expecting more stimulus to come but what does this mean now what choices do we actually have when we're looking to buy stocks and what should we be buying well let me talk about the choices and then i'm going to talk about what i think we should be doing here's the reality you're not putting your money into savings right now you're probably not putting your money into bonds right now maybe you're buying real estate and the real estate market is going nuts it's doing very very well but when it comes to stocks you have three main choices you could buy the classics you could buy the recovery stocks or potentially value stocks or you could buy growth classics are things that are kind of boring i personally think they're boring so i'm sorry if i'm offending you beverages costco look costco did great in march but then it kind of fizzled out procter gamble kimberly clark these are down about 3.7 percent year-to-date you can invest in utilities these are down about 8.8 year-to-date or you could buy into banks like chase and wells fargo who are absorbing the bulk of this disaster they're down about 30 percent here today the problem is these aren't sexy and the prospects for long-term growth just ain't that great so if you've got a long-term time horizon maybe these aren't for you otherwise you could buy yourself a t and sit around thirty dollars per share for the last three months they've done like nothing they do pay a seven percent dividend though instead you might be tempted by the value stocks because maybe you read warren buffett's biography maybe you learned about charlie munger and you said you know what oh here's a cigar bot it's called cheesecake factory here's a cigar but it's dave buster's here's a cigar but it's an airline like american airlines which is loaded up in debt these companies suck during a pandemic but let me see if i can get a little puff out of them and then we'll chuck them because they've got a very real risk of going bankrupt well that is an option and these did really well in june if you bought these in like april and may and you sold them in june hats off to you you did very well but if you didn't you just slid right back down the mountain thanks to well the whole you know second wave or didn't do a continuation of the first wave whatever you want to call it you got screwed okay there's also a huge opportunity cost leaving money in these companies right now because they're recovering value but those are really only good when the recovery actually starts right so you've got this opportunity cost of losing money by not being invested in things like growth companies growth is where the money is right now think apple microsoft shopify etsy amazon tesla these are the companies of the future except what's happening with those stocks well they're obscenely expensive it's kind of like going crazy crazy right now everything feels like it's going parabolic for example last week netflix climbed to almost 550 per share and as soon as they reported earnings lost about 15 in share prices they fell to 470.
sure they've already rebounded a bit and they're right around 500 now at the same time as tesla broke through 1600 per share again but what does this mean it means that even though a lot of hope is priced into earnings and even though when those earnings miss because they almost basically have to stock values are probably going to fall and we're going to see volatility we might see a buying opportunity in these stocks because a lot of these stocks are going right back up but wait a minute come on kevin the valuation for a company like tesla or peloton is insane what's up with that why would i buy these the s p is trading at 28 times earnings that's almost twice the long run of about 14.8 well wouldn't any little bit of bad news just make the market overreact and people sell out it's so frothy well the simple answer is probably for a very short period of time if at all because right now it seems like the safest thing to do is bet into companies that have no bankruptcy risk which means even though these valuations are nuts i think people are plowing this money that we talked about on the whiteboard into companies that are not at risk of going bankrupt during a pandemic and they're going to do well in the long term no matter what yeah does that mean for the next two years we might be trading sideways fine but at least people see this as a way to store their wealth in the meantime this creates a problem because it makes it impossible for fundamental investors like me to actually care like to actually feel good about these values like it's it's almost impossible to buy and that's why we're going to talk about my price targets and my strategy now starting immediately i'm going to park excess cash into a new m1 finance portfolio starting this week and if you're wondering about the 1337 don't worry i'm going to talk about that in a moment it's not dead it's still phenomenal but there's a specific strategy so hold your horses starting immediately i'm going to park my cash into this portfolio which we're going to put right here this is what i call the meat kevin basket the meat kevin basket portfolio is where all of my extra cash will go as i make money so that way i'm kind of dollar cost averaging into this obviously because you don't get paid instantly you get paid like once a week or whatever as i make money my money is going to go into this again you could see this portfolio by going to met kevin.com slash basket it's not meetkevin.com i know i gotta fix the marketing on that okay anyway basket here is why my goal right now is to balance my portfolio and try to mitigate risk with some of the cash that i have because i don't feel comfortable about overpaying for certain companies right now instead and you might think that some of these indexes or indices are overvalued fine let me let me get through this and you'll see the strategy 35 of my well first of all my cash is going into this portfolio 35 percent goes into qq qqq is the nasdaq so 35 goes into that one of the reasons i love the nasdaq 100 is because i get exposed to my favorite tech stocks but i also get biotech without having to pick them i don't know much about pharmaceuticals but i do believe that the nasdaq will do a very well continuously going forward and in the long run so worst case scenario i don't mind holding my cash in the nasdaq then i'm going to balance this by putting 25 in the russell 2000 now this has to do with smaller cap stocks compared to you know the goliaths that are you know like the apples or the teslas or whatever but you get a lot more recovery exposure in the rustle like exposure to restaurants retail or hotels without having to pick a company that might potentially go bankrupt then the remaining 20 and 20 percent is going to be evenly split into a dow index fund and an s p 500 index fund you can see exactly which fund i chose by going to mckevin.com basket now here's my expectation i don't think we're going to see these indices in total decline realistically more than 10 percent uh even if they go down 20 in a double dip scenario which i think the odds of that are low of them dropping 20 the odds are if i park my cash in them now they might run up another 5 10 15 before falling anyway so i you know if i dollar cost average in into these indices i should be okay with my cash and even if i end up losing a little bit in the short term there is a better thing that i'm going to do with the money if we see a crash i'm going to talk about that in just a moment on red days and before any kind of crash what i'm going to do is i'm going to put money into the meet kevin 1337 index this is the one that i've been talking about for a while these are my favorite 48 stocks right now these are the ones that i've hand-picked i don't have any pharmaceutical in here because i'm clueless about these but i've also weighted my favorites much more heavily so for example at the top you'll see things like tesla amazon apple and shopify and lemonade and then out towards the bottom you'll see things with like one and two percent allocations like home depot jpmorgan disney win dave and busters and even nikola is in there which nicola how many of you saw my videos saying nicola was going to get spanked as soon as they said all right all the next like 50 million shares are are now available to hit the market and people are going to start dumping them that's exactly what happened and nicholas down like 20 again today so it's like 38 bucks i picked up some nicola this morning uh okay so the me kevin 1337 index fund and yes that that does mean lead in gamer speak this you can look at by going to metkevin.com 13 37.
so 1337. i've kind of explained this but i haven't explained the strategy i buy this fund on red days so when i have cash available i put it into this when i have cash available the ma the meat kevin index right or the basket right the basket gets my cash on red days i move my money some of my money just a little bit i kind of nibble into the 1337 index fund now we get to the part where i want to back up the truck and load up on my favorites if we see a crash if we don't see a double dip fine i'll just keep buying this on red days and i'll keep putting my cash in the other one but if we get some crashes and we get these stocks falling below my targets i'm going to go heavy on these i'm going to give you my targets but let me show you this first these are my hand-picked stocks which you could see these this is the meet kevin hand-picked portfolio you could see these by going to metkevin.com july 2nd that's when i last changed the allocations for this it's a lowercase j so july 2nd now whatever you'll figure it out there's a link down below for it as well so medkkevin.com july 2nd these are my hand-picked stocks obviously this is where i have most of my money with with a ton of it in tesla over 2000 shares of a tesla are in there i really believe in tesla i don't know if that came across but anyway here are my pricing targets and i'm backing up the truck if we get like a crash and whatever kind of crash we get or if we get bad earnings like on an individual company gets bad earnings i'll take my cash out of the index funds which means yes i'll sell the index funds i'll leave my 1337 alone and i'll put the money into those individual hand-picked stocks so that way it's kind of like my cash is working for me while i'm looking for other investment deals if i find a good real estate deal i'll take it out of the index fund and i'll put it into real estate if there's a good opportunity in stocks i'll take it out of the index and i'll put it into the handpick sucks my price targets if tesla drops under 1100 i am backing up the truck that means i'm loading it up right it's a picture semi truck baby okay come on bring it in bring it i want those shares okay etsy under 90 apple under 320 redfin under 32 peloton under 50 lemonade under 65 and nicola under 30.
i did say that i bought nicola today at about 39 but that's more of a nibble uh and uh you know sometimes i'll nibble on stocks as well uh and usually what i'll do is i'll just go into my 1337 index and i'll buy a little bit more of nikola and then that way the next time i put like five thousand dollars into let's say the index fund it automatically kind of rebalances it for me so uh that's one of the reasons i like m1 finance i will be real though i also do buy stocks with uh robinhood and weeble weeble really lets you get in after hours like i bought netflix at uh 468 on the day of earnings which was an after hours buy and you know now it's at 496.
i'm not trying to pat myself on the back for that i'm just saying thanks weeble for letting me trade after hours so well you can't do that as well with m1 finance but definitely get your two free stocks with weibo but here's the thing if if if if we do not see a crash happen you know and and i can't buy these individual hand-picked stocks anymore i'm probably not adding to them i might nibble into them if i see them drop but unless they hit those targets i'm not backing up the truck instead i'm really waiting for a stock like dave and busters which trades under uh ticker symbol play i'm really waiting for our recovery to solidify and for us to see that dave and busters is not going to go bankrupt if they get into the main street lending program then they're certifying that they're not planning to go bankrupt but the main street lending program is not disclosing any information for a year regarding participants that's stupid that's dumb and it makes me sad but anyway there you have exactly what i'm doing with my money right now i'm again also writing offers in real estate but now you know what i'm doing with my cash you know what my plans are and i think i'm good no matter what happens if we get a big crash i can shift from index funds into my favorites especially since i'll take advantage of those targets am i gonna sell anything to sit sit around in cash no because i just don't believe in the double dip as much as i believe in being able to individually pick crash stocks uh from the index money so that's my pov not financial advice this whole thing is just entertainment only and if you want to learn how to make entertainment only videos make sure to join my youtube course which does a launch on august 10th it is on pre-sale use the coupon code join that program and i cannot wait to see you there thanks so much we'll see you next time you
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