저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
마이크론은 2025년 실적 호조(매출 11.3B달러, 영업이익률 상승)와 미국 내 제조 정책 수혜로 주가 상승 중이며 밸류에이션은 여전히 저평가 수준이다. 다만 자본지출(capex)이 매출의 약 50%로 매우 높아 투자자 민감도가 크다. 실적 발표(12/17) 앞두고 절반은 발표 전, 절반은 발표 후 매수하는 분할 접근을 제시했다.
다듬은 글
Micron is scheduled to report quarterly financial results on December 17th, and investors want to know if they should buy the stock before it announces these quarterly results. Of course, I've had Micron stock rated as a buy all year long, and I'm happy to see the stock price up more than 100% already in 2025.
In this video, I'll preview what investors should look out for from Micron in the upcoming quarter, share with you my updated fair value calculation, and answer the question what I think about how to invest and how to time the investments surrounding the company's earnings announcemen, I'll start off by noting Micron's stock price performance has been supported by fundamental improvement in the business, including improvements in revenue, in profits, and in cash flow.
In the most recent quarter, they reported 11.3 billion in revenue, and that was compared to 9.3 billion in the previous quarter and 7.8 billion in the same quarter last year. So, the revenue increased by $2 billion just from the previous quarter. and $4.5 billion from the same quarter last year. Significant growth to be sure.
Operating cash flow came in at 5.7 billion compared to 4.6 billion in the previous quarter. So an increase of 1 billion in just one quarter and 3.41 billion in the same quarter last year. So an increase of 2.3 billion yearover-year or more than 66%. If you divide the operating cash flow of 5.7 billion by the revenue of 11.3 billion, you'll notice a cash flow and OCF to sales ratio above 50% which is excellent, which would be among the leaders of all of the companies that I'm following.
The risk with uh Micron is that it's a cyclical business. So right now it's approaching its peak and so it's not going to persistently deliver these kinds of operating cash flow to sales or operating profit margins because it's a cyclical business. But when the business is booming like it is right now, the profitability booms even more because the company has a very high fixed capital fixed cost base.
It's the opposite of an asset like business model. An additional reason why the stock price is increasing in 2025 is because of the current administration in the United States and how much they're pushing for manufacturing to come back to the United States. As the only US-based memory manufacturer, Micron is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this opportunity ahead.
Now, they're not highlighting this US-based feature by accident, right? uh for many years being a US-based manufacturer was a downside to Micron because when you're manufacturing in the United States, your costs to produce are much higher than if you're manufacturing outside the United States. So, this wasn't something that Micron would highlight to investors very frequently because it reminds investors that, oh, that's right.
I remember you have a higher cost base than some of your competitors do. But now in 2025 when the current US administration is strongly pushing manufacturing towards the United States and encouraging more manufacturing in the United States and punishing companies that are not manufacturing in the United States, Micron is highlighting this in their press release.
So the company's revenue is increasing to be sure, but it's also improving its profit margins. The gross margin is up to 45% from 35%. The operating profit margin is up to 32% from 19% in the same quarter last year. As I mentioned, when you have heavy fixed costs and your revenues are increasing, your profit margins expand more because your costs are staying the same relatively speaking and your revenues are increasing.
Right? This is a fixed uh heavily fixed capital. uh it's called high operating leverage. Uh not very not every company has this, right? It's um for example, I'll give you something like the opposite which is Uber, an extremely asset light business model. With every dollar of incremental revenue that Uber generates, its costs go up by a lot because if you order a ride, then Uber has to pay the driver.
But if you don't order a ride, then Uber does not pay the driver. So Uber's cost are connected to its revenue. Okay? So that's an asset light business model. For Micron, it's not the case. When Micron Whether Micron generates elevated sales or relatively flat sales year-over-year, its costs stay about the same.
It has to pay for the manufacturing facilities, the upkeep, the maintenance regardless if it's selling a,000 units or 1,200 units. Its costs are about the same, right? Of course, the cost of inputs increases marginally if it's producing more units compared to the same time last year, but that's a relatively small percentage of its overall cost structure, which stays relatively flat.
So now that Micron's revenue is booming and demand is soaring, it's benefiting significantly from this structure and you can expect more of the same in the near term. uh at least for the next four quarters, probably for the next 12 quarters, you're going to see booming demand for micron technology as the increa creating an overall increase in demand for semiconductor manufacturing including for DRAM memory and storage which Micron produces.
So I've spoken about all of the upsides so far, but there is significant risk with Micron. And this is the point I'll highlight here. Investments in capital expenditures were $4.9 billion in the fourth quarter and $14 billion for the full year 2025. So if we divide its capex of 5 billion by its revenue of 11.3 billion, we get an almost 50% capex to sales ratio.
That's extremely high among the highest of any of the companies that I'm following. And this cap X has investors especially concerned right now. Investors are hyper sensitive to this figure, this capital expenditure figure because the overall AI supply chain is spending so much to build out the manufacturing, the investment in research and development, the technology.
So much spending is going here and investors are concerned that the return isn't matching the spending that's going out and so this number very high percentage of capex to sales which is also expected to continue for micron for probably the next four quarters as well. that has investors concerned and this number is uh more volatile than its other numbers because of timing.
If it decides to bring forward some of the capex or push back some of the capex, it could make a big difference to investors sentiment following the earnings release. As we saw with Oracle just a few days ago, the company said that, "Oh, we're going to be spending a few billion more this year on capex than we previously stated." And that announcement was one of the reasons why Oracle stock price crashed by almost 15% following the earnings release.
So this number is one to watch closely from Micron because investors are so hyper sensitive to this figure right now. So looking ahead, Micron is forecasting revenue of 12.5 billion and a gross profit margin of 51%. That 12 1.5 billion in revenue would be roughly 1.2 2 billion more than the 11.3 billion it just reported and the gross profit margin of 51% would be a very nice increase from the 44.7% it reported in the recently completed quarter.
So Micron is forecasting meaningful improvements in the upcoming quarter. So let's take a look at valuation now following Micron's huge improvement year in 2025. It's still trading at a relatively attractive valuation because, as I mentioned, the increase in stock price has been supported by increasing fundamentals.
It hasn't been increasing based on hype. It's been increasing based on improvements in revenue, in profits, and cash flow, which is precisely where I like to see the stock price increase. The forward PE ratio is 13 and a half, and the price to forward OCF is 11. Still relatively cheap. And then when I calculated the value based on my DCF valuation framework, I get more of a fair value.
The intrinsic value per share is 257. The market price is 241. So if I apply a margin of safety, the stock looks fairly valued. Overall, uh, comprehensively, I would say valuation looks slightly undervalued based on the multiples method and my DCF method. So to answer the question, what would I be doing heading into these earnings results?
Would I buy ahead of the earnings? Would I wait until after? This one is a difficult situation because investor sentiment is so hyper sensitive right now. Uh I've seen stocks like Oracle crash by 15% after reporting pretty strong numbers, but the capex figure really spooked investors and I'm expecting a relatively large capex figure from Micron.
And so I think investors are sensitive here and I wouldn't want to take that extra risk going into these earnings results. And then on the flip side, Micron stock is so undervalued that it's just attractive. So what I would do in this situation, this is a classic situation where I would like to um offset both of my risks.
Uh the risk of missing out on a big increase and the risk of a big downside. And so I would split my allocation in two by half before earnings and buy half after earnings. I definitely think the stock is attractive and timing the investment to account for the greater risk I think would be a prudent approach given the hypers sensitive investor sentiment surrounding AI stocks right now.
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