저자: JoBhakdi · 외국인
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Ken Griffin(Citadel)이 Fed 금리인상 우려를 부추겨 Leopold Aschenbrenner 펀드를 청산시키고 그 포지션을 헐값에 인수해 큰 수익을 냈다는 주장. 마이크론·Nebius 급락은 기술적 청산 이벤트이며 과매도 상태로 반등할 것으로 보고, 마이크론 풋매도(행사가 850·900)를 실행했다고 밝힘. 스페이스X 목표가 65~75(12/8)도 제시. 자막 전반이 음모론적 서사 중심이며 사실 검증되지 않음.
다듬은 글
it is today and what an exciting week we all had. For a lot of people not so exciting, more devastating. Uh but here is why this is all so crazy and why we have to have a chat about Wall Street and its crimes against all kinds of people. As you probably know, I am opposed to evil. I believe evil is bad and being good is good.
But there comes a point. There comes a point of mastery. There comes a point, a threshold where someone is so amazingly advanced and has achieved such mastery of something that you cannot stop. You cannot you cannot not bow in awe. And that is also true for evil. If someone achieves a certain mastery of that level, I just have to respect it and that man is the man of the day.
It is Ken Griffin. This man is the man of the day because he has displayed such a mastery of evil scheming that I just have to say I respect you, Ken. I respected you before, but now I am in awe. Because now we become more and more clear what actually happened this week. What actually drove that insane and deeply irrational and purely technical sell off of Micron, of Nebius, of the entire AI infrastructure play and that dragged the entire market down with it from Tesla to Nvidia to the whole thing like a masterpiece of evil scheming.
So what actually happened and why is it such a unbelievably interesting playbook? Today we learned today we learned this in the Wall Street Journal and all kinds of different outlets that Leopold Aschenbrenner the wunderkind of Silicon Valley. I already mocked him a little bit, but he's this guy, Leopold.
In case you didn't notice, in case you didn't know, this guy is 23. He worked at OpenAI. He had a bunch of good ideas along Silicon Valley thinking. It's like, "Look, I know someday some infrastructure issues they need to scale, the market underprices it." So, he was right about making a bunch of calls.
This is not too hard if you come from OpenAI. And he said, "Look, I'm a genius." And he has this whole thing. He's also German, by the way. He he comes across as the typical thing Americans think is a genius. Which is all there is, right? Wisdom and genius. These are two things that are mostly marked by surface level traits that people believe.
Like, for example, wisdom. People think you need to be Indian, need to have a long white beard, and speak incredibly slow, and say trivial things, but slowly. That is wisdom. Genius is you talk very fast. It's kind of the opposite of wisdom. You talk very fast. You don't have a beard. You're young and say complicated things.
And then you're a genius. And so, he was a genius, and he got a lot of money, and then he was right in his first attempt of investing and made 20 billion or something with a lot of money. And then people gave him even more money, including Jane Street and some very large LPs. And then, of course, Leopold, because he's yeah, he's totally inexperienced in running a hedge fund and putting on these trades, which is a very bad idea for reasons we will see in a second.
And then he went leveraged 4x leverage on 20 billion. Can you even do the math? And he went all in and did this. And now we know what he actually This is funny that he's crossed out. But here is the long positions per July 30th. And what you see is he was 30% in Navios. He was 19% in SanDisk. He was in Blue Mountain Energy.
He was in Coeur d'Alene. He was in Micron. And then the rest doesn't matter. So, but same thing, you know. So, what do we see here? These are the names that got absolutely slaughtered over the last few days. These were the names that took down the market. And these were the names and I was in my I was I am in Micron.
I had actually a little short put put on when it dropped too much and I got nearly killed. I had to reposition myself a little bit even though it's not so serious right now because Piney Alpha is on hold for July cuz we're transitioning the funds over to the Piney Reserve since we become institutional now.
So, it's more my own money. It's not a giant thing. But I still don't want to lose money. So, I got kind of a little bit at the risk uh risk uh extension that I don't like. So, I had to roll over my short puts on Micron. So, I'm coming out probably net zero on this whole thing which I don't like. I had it all figured out.
But now I think the trade will be a a black zero because of this disaster yesterday. And now we know why. We know why because Leopold was forced to selling and liquidating the entire liquid the entire public positions he had. All stocks and options. That's a very bad thing. And guess who created a little bit of a market panic who created a little bit of a market panic on Tuesday before the Fed meeting to just add a little momentum into the downward spiral that was not good for Leopold, it was Ken Griffin.
It was Citadel coming up with the dumbest story I've ever heard that the Fed is going to raise rates. And when smart people say dumb things, you know it's a scheme. It's a scheme. And so Ken said, "You know what? I'm so smart. Everyone knows I'm so smart. I run Citadel." And Ken is very smart, by the way.
It's not mocking here. I have deep respect for Ken. He's probably one like a top at least a top 10 right now in the world in doing what he's doing best. And he came out and said this incredibly dumb thing about the Fed. I didn't pay it much attention. I saw it. I was like, "Oh, Ken, whatever. I don't know what you're up to this time." Now we know what he was up to.
So he created actually a lot of market distortion and fear because he's so important and so smart. So if he says something, the norm is think, "Well, he's so smart, so he must be right." No. You can be very smart and be wrong, especially if you want to be wrong. And so he said, "Oh my god, the Fed is going to raise rates." The market crashed, and guess guess whom that dealt the death blow?
Leopold. So Leopold had to liquidate all his positions. And when we look into Micron, let's go back today, of course, insanely up this thing like ridiculous 17%. Completely ridiculous, but when we look into this, the Fed meeting happened here. It was a perfect meeting, of course, no rate hike. Everyone was very relaxed, and then suddenly after the Fed meeting for no reason because everything was dovish and great, much better [clears throat] than expected, the market sold off like crazy, especially Micron went down like crazy, another 9% after this disastrous thing here.
Look at this. For no reason, Micron absolutely undervalued, insane. What happened? And there are other stocks, Nebyus, for example. You look at Nebyus, up an unbelievable 25% when you look at Nebyus, you saw a very similar pattern to Micron. Oh, isn't that weird? Same thing, massive sell-off after a massive sell-off, completely irrational.
And Nebyus is the prime example because Nebyus is actually the largest position of Leopold's fund as we just saw. So, Ken Griffin played his little game, created a little bit of panic, pushed them over the edge, they had to liquidate, leading to the most massive sell-off against amazing fundamentals.
At the bottom of the bottom, they were able to crash through the bottom, which finally dealt the death blow to Leopold, and he had to sell everything, which led to this final sell-off. And then, guess who stepped in to save the day? Because if you have to actually liquidate stocks, you can't just sell it into the market, then then you crash the market even more.
So, you need actually a block buyer, and that is actually Ken Griffin. He said like, "You know what? I have a heart of gold. I want to save you and the market. I will step in and take your position over for pennies on the dollar, of course, and just save you. I'm a good person." So, he did that, the selling stopped, and within hours of the market opening, Ken Griffin with his newly acquired position made an absolute insane killing, right?
If he If he even holds 4 billion in that stuff, probably more. If he holds 10 billion, it's probably less than 10 billion. Who knows? We don't know the exact transaction value. But, let's assume it's 10 billion, then Ken Griffin made today an easy 1.25 billion dollars. That's a very good payday. It's very good if you put on a trade and you make $1 billion within hours.
That's exactly what Ken did. $1 billion on $4 billion. If he had $10 billion, if he bought $10 billion, he got $2.5 billion. Roughly. Just roughly. Cuz look at this. Net views is up 25%. And we will get in a second to what that all means for us, by the way. And what I did today. Because this is actually very important.
It's not just fun to listen to and fun to understand what Wall Street did here to poor Leopold and to us. I'm not really hit, but I would have I would be richer now if that wouldn't have happened yesterday. So, I'm coming out net zero this week. I would have been very good this week if this didn't happen.
So, but better than Leopold. But we will discuss in a second what that means because it's very important to understand why markets behave irrational and insane like this. Cuz once you understand what's underlying this insane behavior, you can predict what's going to happen next. That's how we make the money.
So, to complete the story, we now know what happened here. We now understand that Ken Griffin screwed us all over. But it's all legal, I guess. I'm totally sure, but it's like legal enough. I guess. And Leo is out of the game and he has all his assets now for cheap. And he just made a billion dollars minimum, maybe $2 billion.
Something between one and $2 billion. That is exactly what Ken made today. It's amazing. And um from here from here, we can now conclude what is going to happen next? Right? Here Citadel buys situation awareness stock portfolio after big loss in I hmm how did this happen? How did this all happen? How did this happen?
Such a he got lucky Ken Griffin got lucky. If you think Joe's making it up and this is just random occurring events it was random that Ken said this about the Fed. It is random that it sold off. It is he was just at the right time at the right point Ken is like whoops who are you? Oh you are Leo. Oh oh you have a problem I might buy no.
You're not buying assets when you drive to 10 billion dollars randomly. He knew Leopold. He knew the situation this the fund is in. He organized the money and he was getting ready when he realized there is a problem. And was it a total scheme? No, he just thought well why not create a little panic? And it just you can be assured.
You can rest assured. Okay that no one randomly steps in and buys assets like that. And no one randomly has like 5 to 10 billion dollars lying around in liquid to take over that stuff. No, this is planned at least for multiple days day and night planned or probably longer than that. And so it's a master stroke of Wall Stream non-criminal crime.
Uh that's how it works and that is exactly the difference to Silicon Valley by the way. And I always said even if Leopold is very smart and I'm not sure about that he might be he might not be. Even if he's good in analyzing fundamentals even if he's good in spotting trades it does not mean you understand the mechanics of markets.
The shark tank and the little tricks and trepidations that wait for you when you are a fund manager like that and get leverage and everything. So, let's wrap it up and I explain to you what that all means for me. Cuz I'm not just talking, I'm doing stuff. So, the big question that we can now conclude as a thesis, okay?
Be cautious. You have to make up your own mind because now it's getting risky here unless you believe I'm always right, which you know, so for me, that means something very simple. If you look at that insane move, if you wouldn't know the back story, if you wouldn't know about Leopold, if you wouldn't know about Ken, and you would just observe the market, you would have a very different story, right?
You would say, "Well, the AI trade, oh, people are so nervous about AI, and they started selling off." It was just a little market panic. No, it was not. This is not a market panic. These moves are highly irrational. This is not a bubble. We were selling off stocks like Micron at the absolute bottom of valuations that we've ever seen.
These are the cheapest stocks ever with the highest growth rates and the most massive cash influx. This makes no sense to sell off. While the AI trade is getting more and more robust, and I understand all the talk out there, but if you understand anything about substance and value, that was ridiculous.
And I said it. I said to everyone, "This is a technical distortion. This has nothing to do with anything. There's a technical distortion in the market." And I posted on X that I'm convinced something is going on here, that this will massively correct. I used the term anti-bubble. We are in an anti-bubble, in an irrational anti-exuberation.
And that will snap back like crazy once it's done. But, the one thing I didn't know is [clears throat] what is going on. So, I asked everyone, "Is it that? Is it the yen carry trade in Japan? Is it still Iran oil? Scare which is impossible because it only hit the AI stocks. [clears throat and cough]
And now we know what it was. So, what does it mean for me? If it would have been a normal sell-off, okay? If it would have been a normal panic. And we snapping back now. Like crazy today. This is not This is not a V-shape recovery you should normally buy. Because it could be a dead cat bounce. It could be that the market is in freefall and is panicking.
And this is just a quick short-lived recovery rally, a head fake, a bull trap. And if you buy into this stuff, you get killed on Monday or Friday, whatever. But now we know this is not the case. We know now. This was not just irrational. It was a technicality. It was a forced selling event of a single fund.
That is now being corrected as evidenced by Micron going up like insane. Nebius going up like insane. And guess what they all have in common? They're part of Leopold's fund. So, I am calling that out as the glitch that happened. And if this is true, these stocks will not drop. So, here comes my prediction.
And I'm betting money on it. Here comes my prediction. This rally is stable. Micron is now totally oversold still. This is not overbought because what happened here from here from 900 down to some insane number, 711 actually at the after hours after market. Was completely synthetic and engineered and had nothing to do with anything called the market.
So, we are basically now back to oversold. And that means I'm selling puts. Here you have it. I'm selling puts. And I'm selling relatively aggressive puts at 850 and even some at 900. And a lot of people who don't understand what I'm saying say, "Joe, you're completely nuts. This thing can fall back to 700 in no time." So, I I don't think so.
Now, you have to risk manage. I'm not doing it in a way if it falls back to 700, I'm not screwed. But, I'm pretty sure this is the right move. I even added some NEBIAS, even though I normally wasn't in NEBIAS. But, NEBIAS when I look at this, why do I like short puts? Because the premiums are absolutely nuts.
The premiums are absolutely nuts because options are just pricing in this normal stuff. So, I'm getting paid a lot of money for doing that, for taking on this risk. And this risk is very well informed based on that thesis. Now, you have to always be cautious. If you do these things, be extremely cautious.
You need to watch that. It's a full-time job. If anything goes wrong, you know you need to know exactly what needs to be done. That's exactly what I did here. Despite kind of feeling that this is exactly going to happen, I had to roll over my 850 strike price puts because it was just too extreme. I rolled them back over into 780.
So, I'm not going to make any money on that. I'm just breaking even this week. But, next week might be very good. So, here you have it. That's how I translate this insight into actual trades. I would absolutely not do that if that wouldn't have happened with if that would if I still wouldn't know what actually happened, I would absolutely not sell puts into this.
But, this way, no. You can fool me once, but not twice. So, that is my thesis here. Be cautious. Don't copy me. This can kill you. If anything goes wrong, you have to watch it. But I'm quite confident we do not see a major drop here. And just to give you an example, if you sell a two-week a two-week put, 900 put, you're getting $100.
So, that thing needs to fall under 800 again to hurt me. I don't think so, because it's Micron and once the market is has normalized for this stock, there should be only one way and that's up. Now, there's still Korea going on. I don't know how much Leopold influenced Korea and how it was the other way around or how it was mutual.
But I also posted and then we go into the comments, I posted this one thing uh a little bit I posted a little bit of history just so you understand that I'm not crazy. You think like this is only like a This is only uh a $20 billion hedge fund, how can they even do this? Uh here, I had a little lecture on Blitzkrieg, in case you didn't know.
I will read this and then we go into the comments. Blitzkrieg was a strategy that focused Luftwaffe and tank tanks panzers into a single piercing point on the enemy line. In case you don't know what Blitzkrieg actually is, it's a tactic, it's a very specific tactic. You have a big enemy line, you have your line and what Blitzkrieg is it takes the Luftwaffe, the air force and the panzers and focuses all of them onto a singular position.
You the entire force goes into one position, destroys that position, breaks through the enemy lines with mechanized tanks, of course, and they very rapidly advance to the back of the enemy and do a pincer movement and then they're screwed. Because you cannot stop that. Same with Leopold and Ken. A single fund was forced to unwind $10 billion plus plus in a few positions that we just saw Micron, SanDisk, Nvidia, including Micron and Nvidia.
These few billion concentrated into a very small window of trading triggered a catastrophic short-term takedown of these stocks and then the whole sector with it. Those who turned tuned in to Joe, which is here me, last days knew that this was a technical glitch. I told everyone don't panic. This is ridiculous.
This is a technical glitch. Something is wrong and we don't know what, but there is absolutely no way this will be here to stay. And I even said very likely today and tomorrow, even though I wasn't sure, but I said this cannot hold into next week. So, more to come in 30 minutes. That's right now. So, there you have it.
You know my theory now, and you know, it's very important to know these things and very important to have a clear thesis because otherwise there would be no way you want to buy this here, but I do. Let's see what you guys have to say, and let's see what the thesis of you guys Uh Andrea Hour says, "Hi Joe, you mean legal crimes besides Forex leverage at 45 billion?" It's not a crime, but should be.
No, I mean the scheming crimes of Ken Griffin and look, if Ken is listening, I know Ken is listening to us all the time. Ken, I know you're very smart. This is definitely not a crime what you did. It's just a little scheming and I salute you, even though it's a little evil. Uh Richard Costa Costa Hi Joe, I opened a position in Micron yesterday.
Good job. I told you it's a good idea. What a reversal today. D. Rod Wow, that's nuts. Yeah. This is a crazy story, guys. Like, this will go down in history. This is not a small thing. We have to recognize history when we witness this, and this is This is Wall Street and the Silicon Valley history, what Ken did there, and what happened to Leopold in the whole story.
You will see, there might be a movie on this what we just today witnessed. Uh Ragnar, yesterday you told me to buy MU. I bought for five shares to today morning, and I'm already over 20% up. Good job. Five shares. That's not too many, but good. Good for you, Ragnar. Uh now the sanity is restored, and we all go up 30% and into the sunset.
Death Park. Yes, exactly. It's all going to be good. I think for now it's going to be good, but uh there are some warnings we should take away from that. It's still not normal what happened. It's still not normal what happened to Korea. I do not think we have a structural issue. I do not think there will be a bubble pop of any sort.
There is no bubble. But, the one thing that is changing in the market is the aggressiveness of these swings is not normal. And it's not just Leopold and Ken. There is something going on with the way we use leverage as a whole as as you know, as all these markets, but there's also AI trading here. There is some weird stuff happening, and the the bottom line of the weird stuff is the swings in trillion-dollar stocks or the swings in 50, 100 billion, like large caps can be like penny stocks at this point.
I don't know exactly why. That goes beyond this whole story. So, be cautious with margin, and we learned that the market can take down large stocks Look at Tesla, but not as extreme as these stocks, but just because a stock is large does not insulate you from extreme moves anymore, and that used to be the case.
I mean, look also at Microsoft. This is very extreme, guys, in case you didn't know that. 16% up, I mean, I understand they had good earnings. They were not that good They were just great earnings, but that that should not get your stock up 16% if you were a $3 trillion company. That's insane, okay?
That's literally insane. Like Microsoft today went up $500 billion. Uh hello? So, uh something is wrong with the market or maybe not wrong. I think it's the new normal because of algos of massive amount of AI trading. And what that means is the predictability of stock prices in the very short term has gone completely out of the window.
You have to be very cautious. That's the bottom line. Uh what did it you say on X to get suspended? Did I get suspended? It would be bad. Am I suspended? Who says I'm suspended? I'm live on X. I'm not suspended. Who says I'm suspended? Uh forex leverage is beyond the Kelly criterion on best beta stocks.
Fly too close to the sun, get burned. Yeah, but this was more than that, but yes, you're right. I'm on margin got early assigned on my 800 CSP this morning. Nice. [snorts] Uh Richard Caulfield, I was out of my depth and paid the price. Had two wide of bull put spreads and got toasted. Took 48 hours to lose 30% of my trading account.
Ouch. Sorry to hear that, Richard. One So, we have to be cautious. We need to be prepared for massive moves that in the short term are unhinged. That is the takeaway here because sure, we now know what happened, but in the large scheme of things, it's still it shouldn't have happened to that crazy extent.
Once Trump taco again, we're going up like Falcon. Well, I don't know the tacos become less effective at this point. Blitzkrieg is a German term meaning lightning war and describes a rapid overwhelming military attack, sudden surprise offensive, or coordinated combat strategy. That is roughly correct.
It used fast fast-moving forces to defeat an enemy quickly before they can fight back. Yeah, but specifically focus Luftwaffe and panzers on one specific point of the enemy line, break through that line, rapidly advance into the hinterland, and then pincher movement, and then the enemy is being attacked from the back and the front and is toast.
That was how it worked. Uh here Rahul's, do you think this was the main reason for what happened uh for the last month, or are there other issues with this market? Well, it got accelerated, of course, because it went up a lot, but these specific moves in Micron and all the stocks in Leo's fund, when you look at it, it's exactly the stocks that led this disaster.
Uh it's just too much concentrated, and it's not the whole last month, it's only the last 5 days where this worked. Okay, only the last 5 days, that's the genius of Ken. It was Blitzkrieg. It wasn't over a whole month, it was over the last 2 days that killed Leo. The last 2 days, a massive attack. I was in this, too, in Micron.
It fell from 900 to 711 within 2 days against all fundamental reasoning. Okay, that's an extreme move after it already dropped. And against the PE forward PE of like whatever, six. So, that was Blitzkrieg, I tell you. And so, no, I don't think there's anything wrong with the market, actually, with the AI trade.
Uh OpenAI having to cut prices concerns me. Not sure how exposed Nvidia, Micron, etc. OpenAI will go under. What does it do to the market? So, Jesse, I think what we just experienced was very extreme, was very driven by that specific story, if you ask me. It's very blitzkriegy what's happened. It was too extreme.
Now, will there be jitters and when OpenAI has problems? Sure, but the market What was also so informing to me, informative, was that what I was saying, that this is fake news, that this is a technical glitch, everyone who knows anything was saying. Chamath said the same thing. Given Baker said the same thing.
Gene Munster said It's like everyone who knew anything was completely on my page. And so, that was just adding to my suspicion that there's something very wrong technically. This was not like a split opinion. Only total dummies thought this is like a problem. Everyone who knows anything was on my side.
And then why is it happening anyway? Because there was a severe issue technically in the market. So, I'm not concerned about that. And Jesse, by the way, um OpenAI and Anthropic and Anthropic are super exposed with their high token costs and their enterprise clients. They're getting super attacked from all sides now from Grok, mainly, and from the Chinese.
But anyone who knows anything understands that neither Grok nor the Chinese are bad for Micron, Nvidia, and the underlying trade. Because it just leads to even more token use. Why do you think Jensen is pushing open source so much? He's basically attacking indirectly OpenAI and Anthropic. He wants them to go down.
And he's Nvidia's CEO. Exactly, Jerod B. Microsoft was 2.8 trillion a few days ago. Now it's billion. It's not Okay, Joe Dobie. It was not that Microsoft was 2.8 trillion a few days ago. It was 2.8 trillion 24 hours ago. Uh Isla Isla Bonita, great show as always. Hi Joe, I had a feeling these moves were not natural.
Where would be good place to put $1,000? $1,000? You can buy a Micron share here. For example. With the crap I saw on X and I'm not suspended, you will never be suspended. Yeah, I I don't want to be suspended. I don't know who said I'm suspended. Uh stock mess stock me silly stock me silly Love you Joe, you kick ass man.
Keep giving us this info, please. I'm doing my best and I disclose always my level of certainty. I have a relatively high level of I have an 80 to 90% I have an 80% certainty here that we won't see a massive drop coming in the next few days. So this is not a head fake. In my opinion. Uh Smokers Heaven says, I only sell puts I want to own and calls I want to sell.
Good. Joe, what do you think about Intel? Um I'm not an Intel expert. I don't know too much about Intel to be honest. I mean, I know a bunch, but I have not a clear thesis on Intel. If I would construct a semiconductor bucket, I would put, you know, Broadcom uh I would put uh I would put Intel, AMD, and Nvidia into that bucket.
But only because I had to. So I will stick with Nvidia that I understand. Intel has like a lot of questions and it's a little hyped and it's a little, you know, it's a little uh anticipating some unknown moves in the future that has this American advantage. It has Trump backing. It has you know, I don't see the very tangible business case.
You probably make good money with it, but I'm not an expert. Rick Kaplan says Joe Tesla $1,000 until this year. Until this year? What do you mean? Explain how fundamentals play a role in stocks when the market is manipulated like this. Well, because the market cannot manipulate against fundamentals for long.
It can do it for a few days. Sometimes if the entire market gangs up on the fundamentals for a few weeks, but not longer. So, it explains to you the fundamentals give you the truth where the market has to always get back to at some point from the top or from the bottom. Blitzkrieg only possible against the French?
No, against the Russians too and against the Polish, against a lot of people. Uh But then of course the Russians had other plans. Um hey Joe, isn't there a bit tin foil involved in your thesis? We'll see. There's always a bit tin foil involved, but not much. Read up on it. You will see. My bet is that what I just told you, this story will become a book and will become a movie.
Not because I told it, but because it is a big story. I tell you, it's a very big story. You will see. Heavy driver, listen everyone, I just want you to note train toy train on every channel so that you must so that you mistake we did. We are retired in Queens in San Francisco if you want to see our crusade.
A million South Koreans using margin to buy two X SK Hynix ETF got margin called. The president was a day trader. She had everyone into the market. True. Do you see this rally going further into tomorrow? I think this is a readjustment rally, right? It's a snapback to where we actually would be without that mess.
As you see here, it's a snapback basically close to here 800. This is July 27th. What was this? Monday? So, we are going back here. So, the answer is I think we are now back to normal. This was a very rapid normalization. We are back to normal and from here anything can happen. Short-term, I think we can go a little down, we can go a little up, but now we are back to a more normal state of things.
So, my entire thesis on Micron, for example, and on the other stocks that I had on Monday is back in play. And the thesis, for example, of Micron is Micron will have an incredibly hard time breaking under 800. Incredibly hard time. There will be very exponential resistance. So, I got surprised when it just crashed like a stone because it was fake news.
So, I think we are back to that. So, I think Micron here [snorts] will swing below 850 and 1,000 until we break out to the upside, for example. Uh so, from now predictions become more difficult because now we had that snapback. Back to normal. Jesse Cumberledge, Intel has a lot of work to do before they can come close to the current valuation.
That's what I think. Everyone's counting their 1.4 nanometers uh chips, but those aren't even in reproduction yet. Yes, pre-production. Pre-production. I agree. I think Intel has a little bit baked in some hopes and dreams. What is your bet when What is your bet when Cybertruck will open for public rights in Austin and when is the inflection point for Tesla?
I just had a great meeting. Should I give you previews here? No, I can't give you that preview. That's too much for a preview. But, uh our analyst team is wrapping up, getting together. I need to accelerate the SpaceX side. We have some very exciting Colossus news, cuz we did some research on the ground.
We know what Colossus is actually doing. And then on the robotaxi rollout, so we have a great, I think, scenario analysis how many cyber cabs, robotaxis you will see in 2027 end of the year. Maybe you will be surprised, maybe not, who knows. And uh that will also elaborate exactly on the inflection point, the catalyst, and everything.
Uh the bottom line is I am getting a little more cautious, but I think my initial prediction of 15,000 end of the year, I would now push it back out one quarter. That's what I would do. Too much 2027 to get to these 10,000 plus. What does it mean for December? Let's see. I think very likely we still see inflection before December, but not to 15,000 maybe, because they seem to be a little slowing down.
What do we make of AMD's new AI rack that claims to be better than Nvidia's well? I think AMD is a very serious competitor. I think AMD is the number two. That's what I think. But, I think they are just much more behind than these racks imply. I think they're doing a good job on the GPUs and the racks, but this is about much more than the racks.
I think where Nvidia just has a leg up is they have massive scale, they can deliver these chips, they're reliable, and they optimize their AI factory, so it's a way beyond the rack. You think about GPUs, then you think about racks, then you think about networking systems, then you think about the entire factory, and Nvidia is doing the entire thing now.
So, Nvidia basically escapes to the upside, escapes up into complexity and holistic things, and AMD is just step by step trying to catch up. Now, they went from chips into racks. Now, they have to go from racks into networking equipment and then they have to go into the entire factory planning. Uh do you think Tesla Terra Fab will succeed in building their own memory?
No. I don't think so. When you look into how this stuff works, this is not Elon's strength and this is not the team's strength. You have to understand what they're good at. And people always say, "Oh, Elon is a master." Like Elon is also like a great sales person. He knows how to sell you and me and I'm not saying this in a bad way, but he's selling us a lot.
He's good in big picture first principles. And then when it comes down to engineering details, he has specific strengths and specific strengths how to put in specific teams. And he's good in blue field, how do you say that? Green field innovation. He's good in taking a rocket and make it itself landing.
These are crude big picture massive movement innovations. And Elon's absolutely not the man for these incremental tiny obnoxious innovations that you would need in memory. He cannot build, for example, these what are they called? Are these laser machines? I'm stupid Am I stupid? The machines ASML and stuff like that.
You can't do this stuff. There is no hacking, there is no tricking. Elon is very good in hacking and tricking reality. He understands Wait a moment. I see this giant opening like Optimus or like rockets that let land themselves. He or or data centers. He he spots like the economics of it. He's like, "Wait, this is relatively easy if you use your brain.
Everyone in this industry is not really using their brain and I find a hack and I'm going for it and I take over the whole thing. That's what Elon is best at." When it comes to memory, there are no tricks. This is just horribly detailed obnoxious work where you cannot cheat. Similar with batteries, by the way.
Tesla builds his own batteries, but it's not that great at it when you really think about it. I'm not saying they're bad, but they have zero chance against the Chinese on that front. And we all know it. They can of course vertically integrate, they can vertically integrate chips, GPUs, but they cannot compete with Nvidia on the Nvidia front, and they can definitely not do the memory.
Memory, you can forget. That's why I'm so bullish on Micron. Elon will need Micron, and he knows it. Um There are so many robotaxis in my neighborhood, Tarrytown. Aus- Tarrytown, beautiful little Tarrytown. Very nice. Lazard, January. Jaju, just a personal question, is your father, who like you has a strong sense of integrity and is very intelligent, interested in your financial ventures?
Uh is he interested? I don't know. He knows about them. Well, you know, he's a doctor. He he he's dealing with COVID things still a lot. So he isn't that No, he's he he's not a money man. My dad is not a money man. He's not too much into money. Uh in my opinion, Alphabet is number two and AMD is a solid three.
Uh you mean of all stocks? Oh, no, in lithography? No, what? So, Jesse, what do you mean? Number two in what? Germans are the cleverest of Europeans. Germans have smart people, but Germans also have dumb people. Germans are a big country. Uh Luciano, Elon just points and says, "Let's go there." Exactly.
Amul Jams at the Clarissa. Uh I enjoy your channel and insights. Thank you, Jeff Jones Junior, not senior. Yep, Elon mentioned Micron and the call. There's no doubt that Elon has zero appetite of trying to do RAM. Do you even know what that Look up HBM. Look up high bandwidth memory. Look up how they have to stack all these layers and and look into what that requires.
Like you do not want to do that. You don't want to do that. Jeff Jones uh Junior says lots of your ideas seem well considered and grounded. Well, that's what I'm trying to do. I see this more like I'm not a YouTuber naturally, right? I'm doing my trading and I like to understand reality and I'm building Pioneer Lands, by the way.
Big things are coming and now we are finally delivering this. It took me a lot. But I'm curious about understanding reality and I'm curious about training my brain to be right more than wrong. And that's why I'm making very open predictions and elaborate exactly what I think, not to impress you guys or anyone.
I want to just impress myself and know when I'm wrong, so I can adjust. It's like a muscle. It's like training. You need to look at stuff. You need to come up with hypotheses, make very clear statements and very clear thesis and put percentages on it and then hold yourself accountable if you're right or wrong.
And it's much better if you are very clear on what you're saying because then you can hold yourself accountable. Very simple. Click the like button. This is the most important comment from Isla Bonita. Isla I can't even My Spanish is bad. The ownership structure Tesla and SpaceX as we intel as a partner is separate from the technology question.
And on the technology and tooling question specifically, yes. What's the reason Tesla's up today? is just up because everything is up. And Tesla was also oversold like everything was oversold, so What does Tesla do? I didn't check on the latest Tesla 309 is pretty nice. What about Nvidia? This is right now Nvidia is more important to me than Tesla for tactical reasons.
Uh, Nvidia is having a hard time. I think Tesla is totally oversold. We're just waiting for the market to normalize a little bit and I think Tesla can go actually go back to 400 if you ask me. Without any good reason other than basic reasons. Uh, what's the latest here? Micron. Oh my god, look look at this.
I mean good for me, but nuts. Totally nuts. I mean I have put on my positions that I want. I'm not FOMOing here. And Nebius is probably completely out of control. Do I have Nebius in this one? Nebius Yeah, that will end up 30% today. Insane. It's totally insane. SC Hadouken HBM most commonly stands for high bandwidth memory, a 3D stacked computer memory interface used in artificial intelligence accelerators, high-performance graphic cards, and servers.
Yes, exactly. It's stacked up to 16 layers now. SpaceX 280 Why is it this thing should also be It was a little down today. SpaceX has a hard time, but I'm I think SpaceX has some surprises up their sleeve, so it's getting very interesting. I have basically no position. I have only 10 tracker shares.
I always buy these 10 shares and stuff I really like when I don't want to have put on so I have it in the portfolio and can track it. Uh target price on SpaceX 65 to 75 for December 8th. Am I crazy? No. Uh daily I said like if SpaceX would trade like Tesla on the same revenue multiple, it would be at 35.
Let that sink in. Uh and I think it can get a 100% bonus on that easily for many reasons. So 70, I think 70 is a very conservative valuation for SpaceX but absolutely possible. But I also think they will reveal some serious progress on Colossus 2 and 3 plus tens of billions of dollars coming in this year.
So that would be an upside surprise. But the problem is the price is still very high. So even then, you could argue it shouldn't be higher than now. Uh when Musk chose Intel specifically as Starship's foundry partner over expanding those existing relationships is the real signal about where he sees the best process technology.
I disagree. I totally disagree. I think Intel was obviously the right choice because it's American. It's the only American foundry company. Uh it was cheap to get that partnership done because Intel was absolutely desperate. This was saving grace for Intel and I don't think that Elon thinks they're like the best technology company.
They were just I mean, there are not many who can do that and Intel is one of them and was a cheap deal. I think it was about the economics. It was about the power asymmetry. What is Elon going to do? Like go to Broadcom? That's not smart. Or to Intel? That's not going to work. Or TSMC? Not going to work.
So it's crazy. There's definitely some market manipulation. I didn't dare uh buy the lowest point of the dip. TSMC is miles ahead of everyone else. Intel is just really in need of partners. Exactly. But it's much better to partner with Intel than with TSMC because TSMC is not American. And I think Elon just has a much better power position with with Intel.
Many varieties of sharks swimming in the investment waters. I mean, especially in Wall Street. I think all these movies you see like Wall Street one and stuff like this is like not a joke. Or Billions, my favorite show. These are real things that are actually happening. I know these people very well.
You know, it's just exactly like in the movies, only more fun. And there is just absolutely no, I mean, in case you didn't know, Wall Street is about money. And they have perfected the pursuit of money. And there is nothing else than money. These are numbers, opportunities, and if you can squeeze someone to death and take over, you know, 20 billion dollars in assets for 10 billion, you will pull the trigger on that and scheme yourself to death to make it happen.
And that's exactly what happened. So, tinfoil hats like, "No, I've seen this very up close." It's a lot of fun once you're in the vortex. Even Jim Cramer and people like that. Now, he has a different job, but he is a very smart cookie on these things. So, no, this exactly happened. And it's wild. It's wild not because it normally doesn't happen.
It happens all day long. But, it's wild because of the scale of the whole thing. I mean, I mean, that's new. That scale is new. Okay, very good. That was our show for today. That was fun again. It's like crazy times. Good that we have Pioneer Lands. Go to pioneerlands.org. This site is getting better by the day.
We are now finally getting a handle of all our key products, become a member for free, can become a citizen for $9 a month. We want to make it really affordable because we have big plans. It's not just about investment analysis. And then we have a membership that's a little higher price for the actual investment analysis.
We have a lot of models coming out on Micron, but especially on Tesla and especially on SpaceX. I will cover that once we have them. Hopefully starting next week, we have some robo-taxi research briefs. Things are finally taking shape. It's not easy to build these things. And I was also distracted with the Pioneer Reserve.
We have an institutional vehicle now in Luxembourg. That's why I couldn't really trade institutionally in on July. That was also a lesson learned that things are a little more complicated to set up than I thought. I thought we were ready for July 15th. If you're an investor, sorry, we got delayed, but it's going to happen early August.
So Leo get bigger than he should. Wall Street punishment was crafted. Yeah, he was just a he was a dual newbie. He just got chomped up or how whatever you chewed up by the sharks, by one shark, Ken. Also Ken is like he's just insanely savvy, this dude. Okay, guys. Thank you so much for tuning in. We have more to watch.
Not getting boring here. And we will cover the age of AGI with all its excesses and insanities. By the way, I'm on Cyber Bulls today in 90 minutes with uh the crew. Uh Herbert, Alexandra, Jeff. I don't know if CERN is there. And we are going to discuss a bunch of stuff. Yeah, we'll have another discussion with Alexandra because she thinks the merger's happening.
I don't think it's happening now this year. So tune in if you like that. And if not, I see you tomorrow. So have fun with that market. Now you know what I think at least. Be cautious out there. If you use any kind of leverage or short puts or whatever, you have to watch it. And uh see you then. Thank you guys. Bye-bye.
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