저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준이 고용이 실제로 깨질 때까지 금리를 내리지 않을 것이므로 주식·부동산 조정 위험이 크다고 주장. 주식 배분이 2022년 10월 수준으로 축소되고 있고, 과거 베어 캐피툴레이션이 고점 신호였다는 논리. 부동산은 초과저축 덕에 버티다 봄에 매물이 쏟아지면 하락 가능성. 자신의 부동산 투자 프로그램과 강의를 홍보.
다듬은 글
oh boy could the great housing and stock market reset be upon us in this video we're going to discuss a problem that unfortunately might not be realized and if we come to realize it could be really bad for stocks and real estate before I talk about the problem which we'll get to in about 30 seconds it's worth noting what's going on in the world fear fear gaug is back over 20 we've had the worst October in the stock Market in 5 years real estate in the last 45 days has hit a wall we are studying the market on a daily basis with my real estate startup and we see the impact into the wall it's worsening by the day allocations are getting cut to stocks just like they were getting cut in the 2022 bar Market back to October of 22 levels that's where we're getting cut back to that was like that was the bottom of our stock market over the last few years uh with the exception of coid obviously was October of 22 we're now cutting stock allocations at companies on Wall Street per Bloomberg Goldman Sachs and otherwise to October of 2022 allocation levels some of the steepest losses have been seen in the NASDAQ in The Last 5 Years and look everybody has their turn to be right it's really easy to make fun of the Bulls when they had their turn and then stocks correct it's easy to make fun of crypto when they had their turn to be you know go to 69k and then correct it's easy to make fun of bears when you know they had their have their turn now and then eventually they won't have their turn again everybody goes through their cycle I really believe that but something that's critically painful now is that Goldman Sachs believes the Federal Reserve won't be done keeping their boot on the next of the economy until jobs print negative that is until the economy actually starts firing people people actually start losing their jobs that's when the Federal Reserve might finally be done because that's when their Narrative of Maximum employment starts getting hurt and that's the first time they have to start evaluating uh-oh well if right now we have maximum employment then we just need to fight inflation but as soon as that maximum employment gets threatened then is the first time they can critically ask themselves okay have we done enough and until the job Sprint goes negative we might be suffering with boot so why is that what is this thesis that contributes potentially to a longer term great reset well it has to do with cash and I want to start about thinking about this cash idea from the real estate point of view and then you're going to see how it relates to stocks but nobody's made this connection as far as I'm aware it's something that through the research and studying and reading that we do we're like oh wow first real estate prices year-over-year in many markets are down 0 to 10% it's not actually that horrible when you consider that mortgage rates are now over 8% and and they were under 3% that's an over 500 basis point move in mortgage rates which should reduce buyer purchasing power by 50% yet prices in some markets like Florida are slightly positive year-over year the national average is down maybe about 5% and some other markets are maybe down 10 to 15% especially the coid markets where we're seeing kind of a coid reversal it's kind of like the markets that boomed the Boise's and the Austin they're having a little bit of an unwinding and the markets that people were fleeing are maybe a little bit more stable at least when it comes to California and Florida is this unique exception where despite homeowners insurance rates that are so unaffordable people don't even want to have homeowners insurance anymore people are still flocking to Florida but what's the cash thesis the cash thesis is that people had so much extra wealth built up during the pandemic so much in excess savings that they are actually able to insulate the loss of their 50% purchasing power by accepting a higher level of payments as a percentage of what they otherwise would have been used to so in other words if you're like hey you can afford a $500 a month car payment and you're used to a $500 a month car payment then all of a sudden somebody gives you $50,000 in stamy money let's just say I'm being extreme here okay to make the point and then somebody's like you want that new car well now the payment's going to be a thousand bucks you're like dude I got an extra 50 man like what's another six a year like no problem I have the car paid off before I'm out of my 50 the same to obviously a different extreme could be what's happened in the housing market where you actually had so much propping up of excess money that what did you end up getting left with you ended up getting left with people who had such a larger amount of coffers that they're like no problem I'll take the higher interest rate cuz I want that house I want that property I want to live given that and I will refinance it when rates are lower I've got to have it now because I can afford it now I don't know if I'll be able to always afford in the future but I want it now because the pandemic taught us that life is short unfortunately that attitude is exactly what Jerome Powell has to squeeze out of us it's a little graphic but it's kind of like getting waterboarded okay like you get waterboarded in torture okay it's like you're you're getting Li thrown down on the table and Drome pow's doing this and you know they're dumping buckets of water on us if you get up and go that all you got I'm still buy that house I'mma still buy the dipon stocks can be like all right and then you get it again how about now I still feeling good how about now and it's literally the economy getting waterboarded the economy is getting tortured the economy is just still so resilient and strong it's not until you actually start choking near death which will be measured by job loss the FED might U-turn and that's why and it's it's it's so interesting because everybody always wants to be right everybody knows people do their best and people are right people are wrong I've been right many times but I've also made some oopsy dupsies not to mention any names and face oopsy dupsies uh still hope uh but anyway take a look at this TS Lombard was a longtime B okay they've been a bear throughout 2022 and that's why they got a lot of popularity like Mike Wilson and Morgan Stanley bear throughout 2022 what happened in the summer of 2023 when the stock market was going straight up for months in a row they actually flipped Morgan Stanley's like you know what or Mike Wilson's like I was wrong now and and and they they flip they're like you know what it's time to go bullish uh you've got TS Lombard that's like you know what we're increasing our allocation to equities because have to because you know we don't want to get left behind or TS Lombard here said that those are things we covered this summer The Bears felt they were so wrong that even the Bears capitulated and you know what that was the sign of the top folks hindsight is 2020 and I missed it when the Bears started capitulating that was our warning sign that was our red flag when Mike Wilson and TS Lombard your resident Bears get up and say we can't handle it anymore this economy is too strong and they stop torturing the economy as bears do then all of a sudden that's when you know you've hit a peak and guess what jpow the torture he just keeps going but you know what there is a risk that he's not oh I'm looking at the wrong camera there is a oh well you got my side shot there is a risk that jow is going to just keep going until our GDP approach us under 2% which TS Lombard actually believes it could happen in Q4 they think that earnings recession will drive us into a deterioration below 2% that Q3 was an anomaly but Q4 q1 will drive us below 2% in fact they expect real GDP which is how we measure GDP inflation adjusted to be 1.5% in Q4 which will still make our annual GDP rates we over 2% but the point is we'll be squeezed down to finally below trend is that finally what's going to lead to joblessness and then the FED u-turning possibly but it's not just TS Lombard it's even folks like Goldman Sachs who are saying we need to see the joblessness we need to see the tortures Flinch and the reason the Market's done so well is because people have had this excess cash to buy the home and to buy the stocks the problem with that is you don't convince the FED that they've done enough so what happens when people are finally out of cash and this is where it gets interesting think about this what happens when people finally say I'm done in the real estate market you know what that looks like that looks like every seller and their mom right now saying we are going to put our homes on the market in Spring and then what if the buyers then don't have cash and all of a sudden you see yes low inventory but low buyers now creating some balance but now buyers have dropped even lower so you're seeing real estate hitting a temporary wall but then what happens when Real Estate inventory starts doing this that's what we're watching closely with my real estate startup deadline to invest in that for 2023 here is November 1st go to house hack.com to learn more Somebody by the way in our last house hack video absolutely nailed it it's a first commenter that I've I've I've seen that probably summarized what we're trying to do with that company so succinctly uh and and they saw s the vision so well the mini funds part of your company is fascinating me the most it's over here on this um more Niche video our first renovation by real estate startup we have multiple Renovations going but mini funds the mini funds part of your company is fascinating me the most it seems you may be selling the real estate to institutions investors as a property backed security that then has instant positive Equity since you bought them at a discount still going through the offering circular but if you pull pull this off this is crazy stuff man no guarantees in the startup World anyway what happens in the spring when finally the money is out that's the fear that exists now so what does that mean does that mean paper hand right now on all the stocks you have stocks can often amplify the fear beforehand so it's possible that you paper hand now you've already hit your second bottom there's no guarantee of that though with real estate though 110% patience that's what house hack is doing strategic deals where people are begging us to buy the properties right now no liquidity we literally have people with like hoarder homes and moldy moldy homes or or or situations that they can't get out of where they're like please we need the cash tomorrow like as I'm starting to see that where people sellers are like Kevin Kevin please please please can you give us a like I'm literally getting sellers Kevin can can you give us a non a non-refundable deposit please please that's the fear you discount that to insulate yourself anyway if you want to learn more about the strategies that I employed to build wealth and how to deal with this sort of psychology of money make sure to check out my courses at meetkevin.com they're less than $100 each we've got a lot of them coming out within the next few weeks and we're really excited to prell them they'll all be worth double check out my housing startup at househ hack.com uh or just go to meet kevin.com you'll see all the little things at the top including Financial advice and folks I'll see you in the next video just do keep in mind even though I'm a licensed financial adviser wearing a Christmas sweater right before Halloween I' yeah stock broker too and that should make sense right I don't know your personal situation I can't give you taxt or legal advice and any third party content I show like these research reports I can't endorse them I I can't tell you that these are 100% correct I'm just showing you and commenting on what other people are saying uh and so remember that this video is not reasonably sufficient information for you to make an investment or to evaluate a security uh any products I promote could be Affiliated probably are and the goal obviously of providing value is to not only make sure that my family has the ability to survive uh but also that we can be here to keep providing value we just had little twin babies and we're bringing them home very shortly I can't wait to share them with you on video thanks so much for watching we'll see you soon
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