wtf

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풋콜비율이 2.03으로 역대급 수준이라 숏 포지션이 과도하며 대규모 숏스퀴즈 가능성이 크다고 주장. 3분기 GDP 상향 수정(3.24%)과 소비 증가로 시장이 하락했지만 과거 데이터라는 입장. 서비스 인플레이션 우려로 연준 금리인하 기대는 약화되었고, 5년 BEI 상승과 터미널 금리 상승(5.26%)을 언급함.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Merry Christmas to the short sellers because oh my gosh the market is selling off again on some old data and we're going to talk about that old data in this video and it's quite remarkable but it's you know what just not nearly as remarkable as this thing called the put call ratio which is absolutely insane and in my opinion setting up for a little squeezy dizzies take a look at this this is the put call ratio which basically asks okay how many put contracts or short contracts are there on the market versus how many call contracts are there well you take the numbers and you divide them so for example if there are 150 puts 100 calls put call ratios 1.5 simple math need a further explanation rewind now well that I should say that ratio is usually bullishly directed right it's usually sitting at a number under one which means you have actually more calls than you have puts even in March of 2020 we sat at a put call ratio of like 0.86 over here at the end of 2018 we sat at like 1.13 folks now we are sitting at 2.0 three and the the only chart that I could get to go all the way back in time goes back to 2004 is at least the oldest chart I got which is a little annoying because I'm like I want to see that.com bubble but anyway this is the best we're gonna have for now look at this even going through at the very least the great financial crisis we don't have as many puts outstanding then as we do now folks I would not be shocked whatsoever if we are sitting or setting up I should say for one of the greatest short squeezes in history ever I personally believe this is just my opinion that the only way you can make money right now is by shorting at least that's what it feels like right and I think retail realized that realizes this but because of the ease of trading that we have today relative to how complicated it was to do options back during the great financial crisis I think everybody their mommy their daddy their Granddaddy and their seven-year-old son are going on Robin Hood going sure oh I'm making money I like this game but when that squeeze comes the covering oh I think it's gonna be glorious now that's of course Mr bias uh to the upside uh meet Kevin flip-flop or Duty leading next thing you know tomorrow I'll be shorting the market too maybe I already am I don't know you'd have to joo know what the heck I'm doing but that's the beauty about joining those you get lifetime access to all my flip-flops so if I have crazy flip-flops in the future you get to be a part of them you also get to be a part of all the deals that we'll be analyzing for house hack that'll be really fun we get to be a part of a whole lot of things e coupon expiring December 27th it's the holidays coupon see I got my holiday sweater on what do you think and and can anybody tell me what game this is from it's certainly not from a game that has short sellers okay so why is the market actually selling off today well we got the uh GDP numbers for Q3 for the third damn time I kid you not we just got the GDP numbers for GDP for Q3 for the third damn time okay this is the third and final revision of GDP for July August September so July August and September we still had companies that were not really worried about consumer demand in fact they were worried about inventory but they were optimistic about the holiday season right Q4 in most company earnings that I read it was not until October and November maybe late September in some cases that they actually started seeing consumers spending less and they started to see the implications of a recessionary market it wasn't until October or the end of September at the earliest but wait a minute Q3 GDP represents July August September so of course you're not going to get the worst of the numbers yet why does that matter well it matters because people are freaking out that the numbers are a little hot and have been revised up once again now the revision up is a little bit of a bummer but again we're looking at the rear view mirror consider the following the final read for Q3 GDP came in at 3.24 annualized so they just took the quarterly read multiplied it by four this was above the 2.93 read we had about a month ago and above the 2.57 read we had at the end of October so ever it just continues to get revised up now it's over now the Q3 is finalized and we're in Q4 so we'll get our preliminary Q4 reads in January right we're clearly out of that technical recession right uh now the update from that second estimate also had a change from or for consumer spending they showed that consumer spending moved up from the previous estimate of 1.7 to actually 2.3 percent which is also higher than the two percent spend we had in Q2 so in other words up from Q2 and again revised up in fact if you look at this uh graphically right here you can see the bulk of the third estimate which is in Orange and the change in the third estimate really sits on the right side Financial Services Insurance a little bit for food services and accommodations increase other services on the far right uh and then of course a little there on the healthcare side you've got uh you've got a little bit of a nut job transportation service is roughly flat housing and utilities actually down but when you just look at this from a Services point of view it's really services that were popping off now why is that so scary well services are so scary to continues to tell us the reason they have to be more aggressive and Hike more and more and keep going and keep going and keep going is because they're worried about part three of inflation remember folks part one is Goods inflation that's going down part two is uh what we have known as housing inflation which we already see as going down part three is uh Services inflation specifically what that does to wage inflation and that kind of mixed hasn't really shown indicators that it's going down yet and so this GDP report is freaking markets out that oh my gosh things are getting worse not better but once again we're looking all the way back to July August September rather than looking forward to what do we think is actually going to happen in q1 which is unfortunate because this means that once ag and potentially pushes us into a dirty and dark recession where we end up fighting deflation rather than inflation because the FED overdoes it now we'll see we're not going to hear from the FED for another like five weeks five and a half weeks which kind of nice you won't hear from them until February 1st but what is the market pricing in for a Federal Reserve terminal rate well unfortunately it's up right we used to this terminal rate back when when the last fed meeting occurred was sitting at 4.9 then the last fed meeting occurred we got a little bit more of a hawkish powie wowie and what did it move up to it moved up to about 4.95 but what did it do over the last few days it moved all the way up to 5.26 and I really really hate saying this because it's pissing me off but remember how I've been telling you that there's one chart that just really needs to go down one chart that thankfully is starting to fall and soon enough it'll be lower than those Peaks that we saw in 2018 and soon enough it'll be trending down and it'll all be great in the fedkin u-turn uh I have bad news that chart is the five-year Break Even chart and uh unfortunately that chart actually over the last three days decided to spike again uh yeah that's not good and unfortunately markets are still pricing in this belief that we're going to have a cut in 2023 you can see here this orange line that kind of looks like a hat how it kind of inflects where that inflection is is November December and that's kind of implying a potential uh rate cut so in a weird way you have the bond market futures Market saying okay look we think inflation's coming down but it's not plummeting for the breakevens on top of that we think the FED is going to give us a cut but we've always had to be more hawkish with the FED than what actual estimates have been sadly and the FED unfortunately is just staring in the rear view mirror looking at Q3 data from a time before in which we actually had companies starting to freak the hell out about consumers and consumer spending like they are in Q4 oh and um you've got the most puts outstanding we have ever seen in a very very long time I think potentially ever when that flips it's gonna be glorious and there's a potential that flip either comes in January when people start rebuying after their tax loss harvesting doesn't have to be Jan right away at the beginning of January sometime in January it could be after we get inflationed out in January it could be after the FED meeting in February or it could just be after the FED u-turns nobody really knows but there's got to be a glorious unwind of the shorting that's happening and I think it's going to be glorious so buckle up