This is an AI Arms Race, Says Dan Ives

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AI 군비경쟁 국면으로 기술 강세장이 2년 이상 더 갈 수 있다는 주장. 빅테크 CapEx 확대(내년 5~6000억달러)와 수요 우위를 근거로 들며, 기술주 밸류에이션은 90년대 대비 낮다고 봄. 애플은 구글 Gemini 파트너십으로 2026년 큰 반전 가능, 테슬라는 로보틱스·자동화 중심 장기 성장 강조. 시스코는 인수 확대 필요성 언급.

다듬은 글

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01. Yeah. And look in that party it's 10:30 p.m. was 9 p.m., but that party goes to 4 a.m.. But look, we've talked about it. There's going to be the deejay is going to stop playing music. Sometimes there could be glass on the dance floor. Maybe cops come to the party, but the party is going to form. These are just white knuckle moments.

02. What I view is this tech bull market is two more years ahead of it in terms of a supercycle of CapEx. Dan, I know you travel, you spend a lot of your time traveling around the world, visiting your institutional investor clients, meeting with the companies you cover. I'm sure question number one or two or maybe one and two is about the AI bubble here.

03. How do you put that into context in terms of some of the spending? Yeah, I put in some way myself with tech stocks. In the nineties, the average tech company was 30 times revenues. Now the average tech companies 27 times earnings. Big tech trillion on the balance sheet, 3 to 400 billion a year free cash flow.

04. CapEx next year is going to be 5 to 600 billion. It all comes down to demand the supply that we're seeing. And I mean, just come back from Asia demand, man. Inspiring video chips is what, 12 to 1, 15 to 1. So I get the concerns, but it's my view investors are underestimating the scale and scope of what this is going to automate look like.

05. Maybe part of it is because investors are focused on earnings, 12 months out, revenue 12 months out. And this is a story that needs a longer runway beyond 12 months. How many years are we talking about? I mean, I look, I think if you're good group matters a good example, right? Like that stock, phenomenal earnings, CapEx ramped up earnings free cash flow goes down next year.

06. But when it comes to matter right now, Zuckerberg's wartime CEO focus on the future, next two, three, four or five years, that's the right move for them to make. And that's why I just view this as you have to have a longer perspective, just like talent here. You're never going to ultimately look at pound during that one, two years, I think pound here, the trillion dollar market cap next two or three years.

07. Dan, how about Apple here? You know, it's a name that one could argue is not quite fully benefiting or even partially benefiting from the tailwinds here. What's your call on Apple as it relates to that? Get the popcorn out, Paul. I mean, I think this is one when it comes to Google Gemini. That's going to be the video that ultimately is Get My Tides, the biggest install base in the world.

08. I think that could add 75 200 hours to Apple stock. And that's why I think Apple here, I think could ultimately be one of the biggest surprise and 2026 ads as all plays out. And also look iPhone 17 ahead from everything we see from our checks in terms almost the surprise upgrade cycle and the New York City cab drivers bearish on Apple the last six months.

09. So just to be clear, Dan, you think that Apple will strike a deal with Google and its engine? It's a matter of when, not if. Okay. I think that is. And that is going to be the future. That's going to be their partner. And when it comes to the a party right now, Apple, they're behind the velvet rope being like, okay, they will can do the party through the window.

10. Could you let us in? Now they will be in that party and it speaks to the multiple, Right. That's not reflected right now. And stop. Well, Apple certainly has the cash to flash everyone. Yeah. What about Cisco? We were talking earlier with Ryan Dolica of Bloomberg News about how the stock has made this round trip and is almost approaching its dot.com peak.

11. And part of it depends on whether it can get in on this whole A.I. thing. And, you know, that's that's a that's a big question mark. But is this something where it's an arms race? Can legacy tech companies make up some lost ground and get a little bit of benefit from here? Yeah. Look, ask Arvind at IBM.

12. Who can the Dell and Microsoft. I mean, in the end it continues, right? Because I think Cisco's one night, they've made acquisitions. They have a massive install base and they've potentially commoditized revolution. But that will continue to be the next phase. And they have to prove it out from an execution perspective.

13. And I'd be shocked if they don't do more acquisitions over the next 12 to 18 months. And Dan, before we let you go here, just your call on Tesla here off a little bit today, off about 6% year to date, but obviously so many crosswinds for investors to navigate. They're going into the best and biggest chapter of growth ever.

14. Automation. Robotics is the future. Must now war time CEO the trillion dollar pay package. He's going to be the leader of this know what I view is really the best physical play in the world besides a video. And I think this is one we're going to be talking about 2,000,000,000,003 trillion over the coming years.

15. And this goes into what I view is really a chapter for Tesla. That's why to me, 600 bees, KS, 800 boxes. So you see Elon Musk earning that $1 trillion over ten years. Look, I think it's one where it's like if he brings four or 5 trillion in value, then he gets 700 billion. I mean, the point is you're paying him because it's no different.

16. Nadella is important to Microsoft. Karp's importance. Palantir, the godfather of agents in a video, is only one month. And I think when I look at the future autonomous robotics, that's the future to me less about selling cars. That is awesome, where cash is going to shine. That's why it's so important.