저자: KathyWood,MichaelSaylor인용 · 외국인
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비트코인이 금을 대체하는 '대전환(great flipping)'이 진행 중이라는 주장. 반감기(2024년 4월) 이후 채굴 공급이 절반으로 줄어 금보다 희소해지며, 10년 내 시가총액이 현재의 약 100배인 100조 달러 자산군이 되고 금·채권·부동산 일부를 대체할 것이라 주장. 근거로 장기보유 물량 비율, 스톡투플로(stock-to-flow) 비교, 금 대비 상대강세를 제시. 과거 반감기 후 12~16개월이 비트코인 최고 성과 시기였다고 언급.
다듬은 글
in a recent interview Ark invest CEO Kathy Wood stated that Bitcoin is replacing gold as a store of value now Kathy is not alone as Michael sailor Larry Fink and others have shared this sentiment we're going to dive into Kathy's interview and break down why Bitcoin is about to flip gold flip bonds and real estate with some words from gigachad Michael sailor and also we're going to bring you the math behind the great flipping yeah that's right the great flipping where Bitcoin 10 X's Beyond on the market cap of gold we got a lot to cover let's get it Bitcoin hands down hands down Bitcoin is a hedge against both inflation and deflation yes so is gold but Bitcoin is digital and if you look at the incremental demand we're going to see but gold already has its demand you know it's happened right Bitcoin is new and institutions are barely involved and young people would much prefer to hold Bitcoin than to hold gold you know it's interesting that both gold and and Bitcoin are um Hedges against uh deflation but uh bitcoin's been doing better recently as you know or if you've been listening to in the no uh 15 million of the 19 a half million Bitcoin outstanding are in what we call strong hands they're they haven't moved their Bitcoin in more than 155 days uh so um and and this chart uh just shows you that even relative to Gold Bitcoin has been rising it is there's now a substitution into into Bitcoin and uh we think that is going to continue now that there is a much easier way less FR friction filled way to access Bitcoin question about the the having I've heard it called the havening or the having but either one we're getting to that in April I think right um and that's been a bullish thing before I sort of Wonder is it the same thing though is that already getting priced in or is this is there something technical that actually happens that would make it be priced in closer to the event after um so what we've seen historically is that the 12 to 16 months after a happening is the best perform of Bitcoin so that's what everybody's thinking about um this time you know this time might be different because the price of bitcoin's higher we now only have I think it's 900 Bitcoin a day that come out so that gets cut in half it's not a lot of Bitcoin but what it does do is it makes Bitcoin more scarce than gold so for the first time in history you have an asset that is more scarce than gold in what way more scarce uh let's call it a stock to flow ratio so uh the amount of Bitcoin mined every year divided by the amount ex uh amount outstanding same with gold and now they'll be quote unquote less Bitcoin than gold mined on a relative basis is it your view that that Bitcoin has replaced or will replace or is in the process of replacing gold as as the store of value for most investors is that there's a war yeah there's a war for nons Sovereign Bearer instrument store of value and it's Bitcoin versus silver and gold and and Gold's 10 trillion Bitcoin is 1 trillion and it's pretty clear that Bitcoin is winning gold is losing of all the Commodities in the world the only one that isn't suffering from inflation the last 12 months is gold you want to El eliminate infl inflation build everything with 24 karat gold it won't go up in price bitcoin's definitely winning that struggle and it's going to continue because you can move a billion dollar block of digital gold at the speed of light you can program it 60 times a second and the maintenance cost is much lower than custodia rates are much higher so it's it's pretty clear that uh digital gold is going to replace gold this decade what do I expect I expect that uh Bitcoin if it doubles every year at the end of the decade it will flip gold and then it'll it'll flip monetary indexes a little bit of bonds a little bit of real estate a little bit of equity and emerges as a hundred trillion dollar asset class so 100x where it is right now and when we get there it'll be 5 to 7% of the worldwide econom now it's not like gigachad and Kathy are just blowing smoke up your ass okay there is actual math reasoning supply and demand and logic behind the great flipping thesis now let's look at this we're going to break it down very simply after the next taing in 2025 Bitcoin will actually be the most scarce asset in the world surpassing gold 21 million total Bitcoin 900 are mined per day then after the having the new issuance of Bitcoin gets cut in half to 450 per day this makes Bitcoin exponentially more scarce now let's look at the chart stock to flow so as we can see gold was the most scarce asset up until this coming having which hits in about 2 months and then you see the exponential growth how absolute scarcity Works compared to Gold this is why as we talked about yesterday be sure to check out that episode all models will be broken but hey as Michael sailor has said you want immutable money you want property that can't be taken from you in order to do that you have to make sure you take self- custody get your Bitcoin off of exchanges secure your seed phrase and if you're looking to get started you need help with that or you're looking to take your setup to the next level we got just the guys to get you covered simply Bitcoin originals are powered by the Bitcoin way your it team in the Bitcoin World need help with wallets and nodes inheritance planning accepting Bitcoin payments and more hey looking to get started you can book a free 30-minute call with the Bitcoin way using that link below you want to make sure you're stacking out there cuz things are getting Mighty interesting from the macro environment to the institutions driving this flight to Quality that's a lot of demand and then the having coming up there's already not a lot of Bitcoin and there's going to be less simply it just means number goes up and if you need a breakdown of some of the supply and demand Dynamics at play right now be sure to check out yesterday's episode be sure to like subscribe share that sound money gospel follow us on Twitter where we're getting all the latest breaking news set those notifications we will be your guide through the peaceful Bitcoin Revolution and catch you all tomorrow peace if you prefer to go down with this ship [ __ ] you
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