저자: 부자오빠 · 한국인
요약 보기
TQQQ가 고금리·변동성 끌림·수수료 때문에 망한다는 주장은 단편적이라고 반박. 2022년 이후 QQQ -1.68% 대비 TQQQ -44.2%는 인정하면서도, 분할매수로 평단을 낮추면 손실을 방어할 수 있다고 주장. 13년 장기 누적수익은 TQQQ가 QQQ의 10배 이상이라며 강세장에서의 수익 우위를 강조. 하락장에서 더 싸게 사 모을 수 있다는 논리로 고위험 레버리지 상품 활용을 옹호. 파산 가능성은 인정하나 분할매수로 헤지할 수 있다고 봄.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Rich Oppa. Some people still believe that 3x leverage, like TQQQ Excel, has excessively high fees and incurs high interest, so their accounts are bound to melt if they invest long-term. Surprisingly, however, there are still people utilizing this leverage, but this is truly a one-dimensional way of thinking.
It is exactly the same as thinking, "A Mercedes S-Class is more dangerous than a Morning because it has better power. Why? Because stepping on the gas causes a bigger impact. So, if you don't want to die in an accident, you should drive a Morning with less power. Driving slowly will reduce the impact." It is a very simplistic way of thinking.
As you know, 3x leverage requires three times the volatility of the same index, so naturally, it involves investing in derivative products. In that process, borrowing money to invest is required, so it is correct that interest is generated. However, interest naturally rises when the base interest rate increases.
Therefore, in this era of high leverage, it is correct that significant interest is generated, and it is also correct that stock prices melt as a result. This is an undeniable fact. So, if we look at stock prices from 2022 to the present, the 1x leverage QQQ is -1.68%, while the 3x leverage... TQQQ is down a whopping -44.2%.
This isn't just three times; it's practically 26 times leverage. Why is it melting away like this? It's due to volatility drag, high fees, and interest rates. I'm telling you, it is definitely melting away because of those interest rates. Now, let's not think about it in such a one-dimensional way. Let's assume you bought in installments over eight separate transactions.
The key is that this is a high-risk product designed to pursue high returns by leveraging volatility. A significant drop means, conversely, that you can buy it at a very low price. Since you buy it cheaply, you can acquire a larger quantity with the same amount of money and dramatically lower your average purchase price.
Lowering the average purchase price itself acts as a defense against losses. If you had invested a lump sum from early 2022 until now, you would have definitely failed. But seriously, no one goes all-in on three times leverage at a specific point in time. I always stick to split buying myself. If you had bought in installments over a total of eight transactions, you would never have bought TQQQ or QQQ at a high price even once.
You bought them very cheaply, relatively speaking. Therefore, an actual return of -44% is impossible. The point is that it doesn't exist. Wait, isn't the defender's value not reflected in the stock price? If it were n't reflected, how could TQQ drop -44% during the same period while QQQ fell 1.68%? Of course, it is reflected automatically.
If it weren't half, shouldn't QQQ also show a loss of about 4%? The people investing in QQQ aren't fools. They don't invest because they are unaware of volatility, drag, high interest rates, or expensive fees. Even taking all that into account, assuming an upward trend is the underlying premise, they invest because they have run simulations and are convinced that TQQQ's long-term returns will still be better than QQQQ's.
Nevertheless, if it fails, there is nothing that can be done. That is my responsibility to bear. I can fail. I certainly can fail. However, if I hit the jackpot, it could bring me enormous profits far exceeding that risk, so I am willing to accept it. Over the past 13 years, interest rates were not as high as they are now, and zero interest rates persisted for a long time.
Therefore, not much interest was generated. However, looking at it now, it is true that interest rates have increased significantly. But anyway, over the past 13 years... Over a long period, even looking at it on a lump-sum basis, the TQ return is 7,300, while the QQQ 1,697 shows a difference of over 10 times.
That is even after accounting for high fees, interest, and everything else. Even if we concede a hundred times that interest was n't applied, if the return is still over 10 times, TQQQ is definitely the winner. People keep saying that 3x leverage melts away, but why don't they consider the opposite case?
You melt in a bear market, but you make a huge profit in a bull market. Let's say there was a relatively bull market from January to July 1st of this year. During that time, I only made 36% on QQQN, but I made 126% on TQQQNOT—almost four times the profit. As you can see, 3x leverage naturally drops more in a bear market and makes more in a bull market compared to 1x leverage.
So, if a bear market lasts a very long time, you will suffer huge losses, and if a bull market lasts a long time, you will make huge profits. The basic premise itself is that it will trend upward in the long term, and that bull markets will outnumber bear markets. Of course, volatility will be much higher, but you can actually use that volatility to [use] when it drops significantly...
It is all based on the calculation that since I can buy cheaply, I can fully handle the risk, and I will strategically split-buy. Let me give you a very simple example. Okay, QQQ went from 100 won, dropped 60 won, and then went up to 999 won. And TQQQ went from 100 won, dropped 20 won, and then went up to 60 won during the same period.
Hey, look at this. QQQ has almost returned to its principal, but QQQ has lost 40%. I’m telling you, it’s bound to fail. But let’s think about this in reverse. The difference between the lowest point and the current price is less than double. In other words, there isn't much profit to be made. However, the difference between the lowest point and the current price is three times.
In other words, there is a lot of profit to be made. So, TQQQ is a high-risk product that pursues high returns by utilizing volatility. You split-buy to hedge against risk. The fact that your account is melting means it has dropped that much, so it means there is a lot of profit to be made if you buy intensively at that point.
You need to understand why—because you can buy incredibly cheaply. Of course, the worst-case scenario is that the account melts and leverage leads to ruin. That is correct in this situation. However, why assume only the worst-case scenario? Conversely, if you buy at the lowest point and sell at the highest, you hit the jackpot.
This is clearly true in the best-case scenario. I simply cannot understand why you assume only the worst-case scenario and not the best-case scenario. Let me reiterate: 3x leverage has high fees, and the account balance increases significantly due to volatility drag. Since interest charges are higher at high rates, it is correct that the entire 1x leverage wipes out the account.
That is why TQQQ dropped 44% while QQQ dropped 1%. Now, however, 3x leverage has such high volatility that if you enter at the wrong time with truly bad luck, you can go bankrupt and your principal cannot be recovered. If you get hit with a -99% drop, recovery is impossible. Even if it rises tens of times, recovery is absolutely impossible.
That is why you must practice split buying. You should n't just blindly think, "Oh, if I just hold on, I'll hit the jackpot, so I can go all-in." Instead, you must strategically split your purchases, and when there is a massive crash, you need to be more courageous and boldly buy in large quantities.
That is the only way to hedge the risk. So, by utilizing volatility in this way, you can achieve high returns. The point of the TQQQ class is not that you fail because the interest is high; rather, the price drops significantly because the interest is high, and since you buy heavily when it drops, TQQQ is a product capable of generating high returns.
So, do you understand now? If you still don't understand, there's nothing I can do. Uh, I'll just give up. Okay, then, I'll end the video here. Thank you.
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