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there's no doubt that paler is one of the best AI companies on Earth right now but the question is for how long paler stock has been crashing hard going down by 30% in the last week alone and between the Trump Administration cutting defense spending and Alex carp selling millions of shares of paler stock there's really only one question left to ask is this the end for paler or are there best days still to come this video is a little different I'm sharing more of my personal opinions and they may not be for everyone and of course I'm not here to waste your time so here's what I'm going to cover up front all the reasons that paler stock is crashing what Alex carp's huge stock sales mean for the future of paler what paler actually does or the science behind this stock and of course my current long-term outlook for paler stock based on everything going on right now let's start with why paler is crashing so hard there are three big things putting a lot of pressure on paler stock right now first the United States Secretary of Defense Pete Heth ordered senior military leaders to cut 8% of the defense budget for the next 5 years the cuts could potentially include costly weapon systems like the F-35 which means major defense contractors like lock heed Martin and Boeing might see those cuts as well that's obviously bad news for paler since 41% of their total revenues still come from the US government today in my personal opinion this is actually great news for pound here because budget cuts are all about doing more with less which means streamlining complex processes automating time consuming tasks and consolidating hardware and software solutions to rely on fewer vendors exactly why government agencies and large Enterprises work with paler in the first place in fact I think the deeper the cuts the more likely paler ends up winning big because there are so few private companies that are able and allowed to deploy AI tools that touch classified information defense systems and sensors and government Assets in general so paler stock should really be up on the Pentagon slashing spending not down the second thing making paler stock crash right now is all the news around paler CEO Alex karp filing a trading plan to sell up to 10 million shares worth $1.2 billion in 2025 and that's on top of the 41 million shares that he sold in 2024 for roughly $2 billion the headlines make it sound bad like Alex karp thinks this is the top for paler stock but that couldn't be further from the truth first off Alex karp isn't logging into his brokerage account and selling these shares himself all of these sales were planned under the 10b5-1 rule which is a rule that every investor needs to know about the 10b5-1 rule lets company insiders set up an automatic trading plan to buy or sell their stock at predetermined prices not just times but prices that way they can't just buy buy a ton of shares ahead of big announcements or dump them ahead of a bad earnings call in my opinion what actually happened was that paler stock went up by 500% over the last 9 months which ended up triggering some of Alex carp's planned sales much sooner than anyone expected not to mention that some of his sales last year were simply to cover required tax withholdings for a portion of his stock-based compensation vesting then just 2 months ago Alex karp canceled a trading plan that would let him sell up to 49 Mill million shares worth up to $6 billion even though paler stock was at all-time highs and now his current trading plan is for just 20% of the shares to me that seems like Alex karp is actually super bullish on the stock and thinks it'll be worth much more over the next few years otherwise he would have just simply kept his old plan and collected $6 billion I can't imagine the self-control and long-term mindset that it actually takes to do that the third thing that made paler stock crash is the value valuation at its peak paler stock had a price to earnings ratio above 650 and it's still over 450 at the time of this recorded I covered why the PE Ratio is a terrible metric for companies with high earnings growth in the past but the truth is half of paler Shares are owned by institutions and they don't care if the PE Ratio is a bad metric or not they have to answer to their clients their fund managers and their Boards of directors every single quarter so when any stock goes up 500 100% in less than a year institutional investors have to take profits and manage their risk all this news together is what's causing paler stock to drop by 30% over the last week but defense budget cuts could actually increase demand for Palante AI platforms Alex karp is planning to sell just 20% of the shares that he planned to sell just 2 months ago and institutions are selling because they're focused on quarterly numbers not long-term returns so I think the market is making a huge mistake on paler stock which presents a huge opportunity for long-term investors but here's the bigger issue most investors don't really understand what paler does the science behind this stock and when people don't understand what they're holding they're much more likely to panic sell so if you've seen my previous videos covering paler you already have a huge leg up over other investors and if you haven't let me put things in perspective for you as someone who is lucky enough to work with paler employees and use Foundry in the past pal Gotham and Foundry platforms enable data science across large organizations Gotham for governments and Foundry for commercial companies the big idea here is to give everyone from Executives and Engineers to salespeople and Human Resources a consistent real-time view of their data based on their role their goals and their permissions doing that helps everyone in an organization make better decisions faster since people in different roles and departments will see all the same data instead of using different sources to piece things together from scratch paler enables this by helping companies create digital twins which are also called ontologies at a high level and ontology is a map of things in their relationships kind of like a social network in fact let's use Facebook as an example Facebook is a network of people and their relationships most people have a name a birthday a home address a school or a workplace and maybe a few Hobbies or interests all of which are different ways that people can be grouped together for example everyone with the same workplace is a coworker everyone with a nearby home address is a neighbor these are meaningful relationships because you can do things like advertise a work function to everyone with the same workplace or advertise a local event to everyone within a certain radius you can also use combinations of properties to make assumptions about these relationships for example everyone who went to the same school and has a close enough birthday were probably direct classmates so having a network view of all this data or an ontology could be useful in many different ways for example what if you want to find the people with the most influence in any organization like a workplace a school or a new potential customer well you probably want to Market your service or make your campaign Promises to the people with the most connections since they can help spread your ideas the fastest seeing Enterprise data from this ontology view can also reveal all kinds of valuable insights which servers in a data center are connected to the most devices and do all those devices have the right permissions which military assets have too many tasks and which ones have too few why does one executive have 20 direct reports while everyone else has 10 where are all my trucks my shipping containers and inventory right now this consistent realtime companywide view of everything everywhere all at once can help decision makers spend time money and Human Resources as efficiently as possible representing data as an ontology also works no matter the size the speed or the type of data ontologies scale all the way up to entire government branches and all the way down to individual rows in a spreadsheet it's all entities and their relationships which is why paler platforms have an essentially infinite total addressable market now here's where things get really interesting what I've really been talking about this whole time is a big branch of mathematics called graph Theory don't worry there won't be a pop quiz at the end of this video but what investors do need to know about graph theory is there's a massive amount of research de development code bases artificial intelligence and machine learning models specifically designed for these kinds of problems since many of the biggest companies on Earth represent their data this way Google's network of databases websites and links Amazon's networks of warehouses vendors and products Netflix's cataloges of content users and their preferences let's use Netflix as an example since I just covered them in a recent video Netflix groups their users by the content they watch how long they watch their content rating and other types of user behavior and demographics so when you give content on Netflix a thumbs up or a thumbs down or review a product on Amazon or rate a restaurant on Google Maps you're telling that platform your relationship to that entity and content can be related to other content as well restaurants by Cuisine or by Price movies by genre or by their actors products from the same brand or that meet the same need it's all the same problem just remixed for different markets now a new user named Alex tried Netflix for the first time let's look at what content users like Alex watch the most and put that content in front of him and surprise surprise it's mostly romantic vampire movies don't judge me the important thing to understand here is that Netflix has an ontology view of all their content and their user data to better group similar content together and recommend that content to their users both of which are graph Theory problems Amazon does the same thing to match products to their users Spotify songs to users so when palun platforms build ontologies for other companies those companies can leverage the same research codebases and machine learning models as Facebook Google and Amazon to answer their most important business questions like what parts of my company make the most money what parts cost me the most money when my business gets a new customer what should I show them based on my most profitable customers that look the most like them these questions apply to every kind of business but before a company can answer them they need to get their data in the same structures as the businesses already answering those questions today they need to get their data into an ontology the rest of paler offerings are tools packages modules plugins and even other platforms that help different kinds of businesses extract value from their ontologies they're industry specific because different kinds of companies have different kinds of questions different regulations different industry challenges and different key performance metrics so they need different solutions that's why paler has separate offerings for healthc care providers supply chain and logistics companies financial firms and government institutions on top of that Gotham and Foundry can also connect directly to almost any company asset to receive status updates and even send back instructions like rerouting a vehicle or tasking a military unit that's a huge level of access to give to any third-party software which shows just how much some of the biggest governments militaries and companies on the planet already Trust peners platforms with their most sensitive data that's a big deal given how little most Enterprises trust AI tools like chat GPT today the problem is that Gotham and Foundry are both pretty complicated products themselves which makes them hard to understand for users and for investors and now we've come full circle because that's exactly the problem that paler solved with AIP their artificial intelligence platform at a high level AIP lets users interact directly with their company's ontology through prompts so instead of building code or creating different dashboards users can interact with AIP kind of like they would with a much more capable and reliable chat GPT interfacing with an ontology this way seriously lowers the barrier of Entry needed to leverage AI get things done right and get them done fast that's a lot of value but it still leaves the massive challenge of getting all the right data together building in onology and getting AIP working in the first place which is why paler came out with AIP boot camps which are Hands-On working sessions where participants can build real solutions to their own company's problems in under a week experts and decision makers go to these AIP boot camps and work directly with poers Engineers to build out their own Enterprise grade AI tools and workflows using their own company data even if it uses their own intellectual property or other sensitive information and they leave these boot camps with use cases that are close to production ready and enough hands-on experience to finish building and start implementing them on top of that paler Partners can run their own boot camps which only makes paler adoption compound even faster that's why Pal's Revenue growth has actually been accelerating for the last 5 quarters growing by 20% 21% 27% 30% and now 36% year-over-year and I expect that growth to continue especially since which and now that you understand what paler actually does and that their growth is accelerating we have all the context we need to talk about the future of the here's what I think about paler stock going forward I still think that paler is one of the most powerful AI companies on Earth because their platforms provide large Enterprises with AI tools that they can trust at scale and their total addressable Market is basically infinite they're one of the only AI companies that can work with everyone from the US military to Mega cap corporations across any industry in my opinion defense budget cuts will increase demand for paler Solutions not lower it and yes Alex karp does plan on selling 10 million shares of paler but he just canel a plan to sell five times more shares than that and there's no question that paler valuation is still sky high today as pal your stock is up almost 300% over the last year so this is a healthy and much needed correction but there's also no question that their revenues are growing fast their margins are expanding and their earnings will grow faster than their market cap in the future so just like I said after covering their latest earnings call my plan is to keep dollar cost averaging in for the long term which means buying more shares as the price keeps getting lower and keeping a good amount of money on the side side in this market
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