저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인플레이션은 쉽게 잡히지 않으며 금 가격은 결국 상승할 것이라는 주장. 연준 평가: 원자재 가격 하락으로 연준이 인플레이션을 잡고 있다는 낙관은 잘못이며, 원자재 가격은 CPI보다 먼저 올랐고 연준은 이를 무시했다고 비판. 중국 수요 복귀: 봉쇄 해제로 억눌렸던 중국 수요가 돌아오면 원자재 가격에 상승 압력이 가해지고 연준에 문제가 된다고 주장. 수요 감소의 한계: 미국 수요가 줄어도 해외 수요 증가와 수출로 국내 공급이 줄어 가격은 오를 수 있으며, 역사적으로 최악의 인플레이션은 경기 침체와 고실업 속 통화 발행 확대에서 나왔다고 설명. 달러 약세: 달러 약세 재개가 원자재 가격과 인플레이션을 더 밀어올릴 요인이라고 봄. 금 전망: 배럭(Barrick) 보고서를 약세가 아닌 강세 신호로 해석. 실물 금·은 수요와 중앙은행 매입이 급증하고 있으며, 중국이 달러와 미국채를 줄이고 금을 비축하는 중이라고 주장. 투자자들이 연준을 믿지 않게 되면 금 가격은 생산비 이상으로 오를 것이라는 견해. 조건/리스크: 봉쇄 해제 여부, 중국의 실제 금 매입, 연준 정책 등에 의존하는 전망이며 시점은 명시하지 않음. 출연자 전망: 금은 상승, 인플레이션 장기화, 달러 약세 재개 예상.
다듬은 글
now a lot of people were jumping to erroneous conclusions that the Fed was succeeding in its fight against inflation because commodity prices had already come down. People like Jeremy Siegel were saying that the Fed should not be looking at the CPI anymore, because it is a lagging indicator, and should instead be looking at these forward indicators, where commodity prices were falling.
But those were the same indicators the Fed was ignoring. Commodity prices were rising before the CPI did, and the Federal Reserve was completely oblivious to that rise. Instead, they focused on the CPI, which did not yet reflect those increases. Now Jeremy Siegel is saying they're making the same mistake. They should be looking at the drop in commodity prices, not the rise in official consumer prices. But I've been saying Jeremy Siegel is wrong, because that decline in commodity prices is only temporary, and in fact that temporary decline has probably already finished.
One of the reasons for the decline, apart from the fact that we had moved up so much, and nothing moves up in a straight line, there's always going to be a correction, was that some of the Chinese demand was taken offstream by the lockdowns. If the lockdowns are lifted and that demand returns, that will put a lot of upward pressure on commodity prices, and that is going to be very problematic for the Fed. It's going to see inflation pushed higher even as the economy continues to soften.
Most people believe the Fed's policy will succeed in reducing inflation by reducing demand, by weakening the economy, by putting employed people out of work. Americans will have less income and therefore buy fewer products, or, if interest rates rise, Americans will have less money left to shop after servicing their debt, or the interest on the money they borrow to buy things goes higher, so they buy fewer goods because it now costs more to borrow for them. Everybody is focused on the way the Fed is going to reduce demand and therefore bring down prices.
But what if international demand goes up at the same time that domestic demand goes down? That negates the impact that falling demand in the United States has on prices, because foreigners can increase their demand so that net overall demand for these products goes up. Certainly, for services with no international demand, let's say a haircut, if demand for haircuts goes down in the United States, that doesn't affect the barber here, because nobody from China is going to fly to America to get a haircut. But if you're talking about a product available on the worldwide market, especially products manufactured in China anyway, if demand from America goes down but demand from China goes up, instead of exporting that product to the United States, the Chinese can just consume it themselves. So the supply of goods in the United States goes down because of higher demand in China, which supports the price.
Also, there are products we manufacture or grow here that could be exported to China if demand is higher abroad. Then even if demand in the United States is reduced, that reduction doesn't reduce price, because the higher demand abroad means the producer ships the product overseas. Everybody forgets that demand is worldwide.
That's why I always talk about how we can have higher inflation during a recession. Prices are not just determined by the ability of Americans to pay, but by the ability of everybody around the world to pay. Americans are competing with foreigners for the same goods. It's also not simply a function of demand but of supply. Even if demand in America goes down, supply in America could go down even more, because demand outside America goes up and supply is diverted from the United States abroad. So even if American consumers are buying less, there are even fewer goods available for them to buy. What ends up happening is that fewer goods get bought, but the ones that do get bought are bought at ever-increasing prices. So we can have rising prices even as demand falls.
And one reason demand falls is that prices are rising. Rising prices in and of themselves reduce demand, because I can demand a lot more of a good when the price is low. As the price goes up, my ability to afford it falls, and so my demand for that product goes down. But that doesn't stop inflation. Historically, the very worst inflations happen in weak economies, with high levels of unemployment. And during those periods of economic weakness and high unemployment, governments print even more money. You get larger deficits and more money printing, which creates demand, but there is no supply to match it. You're just printing money, so there is even greater upward pressure on prices.
Another factor contributing to upward momentum in commodity prices, and therefore higher inflation numbers, will be the renewed weakness in the US dollar. I look at the report from Barrick not as bearish for gold but as bullish, because it's an acknowledgment of how high inflation is and how much costs are going up. If inflation is this bad, gold is going to go up. It's just a question of when the world wakes up to the reality of this inflation. And you can already see the demand in physical gold and silver, where demand is skyrocketing. Central bank demand is skyrocketing too. There were reports of a huge buyer in the gold market on Thursday, when gold was making new lows, and it's speculated that this was China, which makes a lot of sense to me.
I think China is really trying to stockpile gold, especially if China is thinking of making a move against Taiwan. They're not going to do that until they've really shored up their gold holdings. They want to divest themselves of U.S. dollars and U.S. Treasuries and be loaded up with gold before they do anything that may invoke sanctions. If they divest all their dollars and aren't holding any U.S. Treasuries, they don't have to worry about U.S. sanctions. And if they load up on gold and we try anything, they benefit, because the value of the gold they buy now is going to go way up in a world where we try to sanction a China that doesn't even have any U.S. dollars left on its balance sheet, because it has already converted them into gold.
But it's only a matter of time, and not much time, before investors recognize that the price of gold is not only going to rise in line with the cost of producing it, but will rise more. As investors lose confidence in the ability of the Fed and other central banks to rein in inflation, they are more motivated to hedge against inflation. They can no longer count on central banks to protect them, so they have to look for their own protection, and they can find it in gold.
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