저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 중국의 달러 예금 규제와 위안화 페그 해체로 달러가 약세를 보일 것이며, 미국 경제는 서비스업 중심 구조와 산업 공동화로 취약하다는 주장. 중국 은행의 달러 예금 지급준비 강화: 중국 외화예금의 대부분이 달러이므로, 은행이 달러 대출을 줄이고 더 많은 달러를 보유해야 한다. 발언자는 이것이 달러 수요를 늘리지만 달러를 실질적으로 지지하지는 못한다고 봄. 통화 정책 비판: 당국은 시장이 기능하도록 두고 달러 하락을 막지 말아야 한다고 주장. 달러는 많은 통화에 대해 약세가 될 것이라고 전망. 위안화 페그 관련 주장: 중국이 페그를 풀면 위안화가 아니라 달러가 폭락할 것이라고 주장. 중국 외환보유고가 큰 이유는 달러 하락을 막고 위안화를 인위적으로 억누르기 위해 달러를 매입했기 때문이라고 설명. 중국 내수 중심 전환: 중국은 인구 부양과 내수 구매력 확대가 중요해져 수출 대상으로서의 미국보다 자국민을 우선시할 것이라고 주장. 미국 경제 구조 비판: 미국은 산업 생산 능력이 사라지고 서비스업 중심으로 전환됐으며, 소비자는 빚으로 소비한다고 비판. 달러의 기축통화 지위에 의존해 수입하고 차입한다고 설명. 인플레이션 메커니즘: 연준의 대규모 통화 발행이 수입을 통해 해외로 빠져나가 상품 가격을 억제했다고 설명. 상품 가격은 해외 아웃소싱으로 낮게 유지됐지만 서비스 가격은 현지 생산이라 크게 올랐다고 주장. 중국 저비용 생산 구조: 중국은 과거 저임금과 느슨한 환경 규제 덕분에 제조 원가가 낮았고, 이것이 미국의 물가 상승을 억제해 왔다고 설명. 리스크: 달러 하락, 중국의 페그 해체 가능성, 미국 산업 공동화 지속이 주요 리스크로 제시됨. 출연자 전망: 달러는 장기적으로 약세, 미국 경제는 취약하다는 장기 견해.
다듬은 글
most of the foreign currency deposits in China are in U.S dollars and so now when Chinese Banks take US dollar deposits they can't make as many loans they have to hold more dollars than they had been holding and so the idea here is that this is going to increase dollar demand in China because the banks are now going to have to buy more dollars or hold on to more dollars so not sell as many dollars but I don't think this move is going to provide any significant support to the dollar the question is is this an indication that the bank is going to do more to try to slow down the Dollar's decline which I think would be a mistake I think the monetary authorities should let the market function and let the dollar fall the dollar is going to be falling against a lot of currencies not just the Yuan but one way that this might backfire if the goal of the policy is to to strengthen the dollar is if Chinese Banks which now have to hold more dollars in reserve and so they can't loan out as many maybe they will also reduce the interest that they pay their depositors on their US dollars because obviously they can't make as much money loaning out those dollars and if they do that then that will simply widen the disparity between what you can earn on your r b deposits or you want deposits versus what you can earn on your dollar deposits and that may cause more people in China to decide that they'd rather Bank their Yuan than dollars and so what they end up doing is selling their dollars so that they can convert their deposits to you on and earn more interest now this is going to happen anyway as the dollar really starts to fall and the people in China start to perceive the risk of holding dollars and they would prefer the safety of of owning local currency so that is going to happen anyway but also you know there's been a lot of people who have pointed to the Chinese currency Peg and they said if it wasn't for this Peg it's the Chinese Yuan that would fall that somehow by pegging the currency to the dollar they are having an artificially strong currency and but for that Peg the Yuan would crash clearly when the central bank is intervening to support the dollar that's not true it's the dollar that's going to crash if China pulls the peg not the Yuan and in fact the main reason that the FX reserves are so large in China is because that's how many dollars they've had to buy to prevent the dollar from falling and to artificially suppress their own currency and so I think that domestic purchasing power is becoming far more important than exports to the United States and so trying to artificially suppress the purchasing power of their own currency is no longer a primary concern they're going to have a lot more people to feed and to take care of and so they want more purchasing power they want to try to see the cost of raw materials and all the things that people are going to need they want to see these things come down and they're going to be more concerned about satisfying the demands of their own population which is now going to really start to grow as opposed to satisfying the demands of the American population which is now in a lot of trouble because we're going to be fending more and more for ourselves and we do not have the capabilities of doing that because over the years we've grown dependent on countries like China and so our economy has disintegrated our industrial capacity no longer exists we have seen the economy transform into a service sector economy where consumers borrow money to buy stuff they didn't buy but all this is dependent on the reserve status of the dollar and our ability to import the stuff that we didn't make and borrow the money that we didn't save if you think about again the classic Milton Friedman inflation which is what inflation is which is too much money chasing too few goods you print more money and it bids up the supply of goods what has been happening in the U.S economy the FED prints all this money yet that money doesn't lose a lot of value look at the exchange rate of the dollar versus other currencies we've had this massive explosion of money printing big increase in the fed's balance sheet but on a relative basis the dollar hasn't lost a lot of value relative to other currencies despite the fact that we've dramatically increased the supply imagine if the United States existed as an island we didn't trade with any other Nation so any money the Federal Reserve printed just stayed within our borders it didn't go anywhere right and so the only stuff you could buy with the money the FED printed was the stuff that we made here domestically because that was the only source of goods well obviously the effect would have been much different because if the FED prints a bunch of money and we don't have any stuff we're not producing we don't have factories making stuff then the prices are obviously going to go way up but there was kind of like an escape valve that allowed the FED to print a lot of money and it not push up the price of goods and that was the fact that we have a whole world out there that was able to produce the goods that the U.S economy couldn't and we were able to take all the money that the Federal Reserve printed and then use that money to buy all those goods that were made outside the United States so the FED prints money right the government gets it sends it to Americans Americans take that money and buy Chinese Goods with it and now the Chinese send us their goods and we send the Chinese our money so the money the FED creates is shipped abroad so it's not in America bidding up prices but now the goods that the Chinese produced they get shipped to America so now we have all those extra Goods to keep a lid on prices and if you look at the breakdown of the CPI between goods and services if you just look at Services you've seen a substantial increase in prices even with the government rigging the CPI because the cost of services has actually risen by more than what the government admits but if you strip out Goods you'll see a much bigger increase in prices why because we can't easily import those Services there isn't a foreign alternative you can't Outsource that stuff because the services have to be performed locally but when it comes to Goods more and more Goods have been outsourced to cheaper production economies like China and so that's kept the lid on Goods prices and so when you average the goods prices with the service prices that's kept the measured rate of inflation lower I mean think about the low production costs in a country like China which you know 20 years ago they were just starting out they went through a long period of time where they had a communist system not just a name but in practice and so you had a lot of very poor people and as they began to embrace capitalism wages started at a very low level and of course they didn't have a lot of the rules and regulations that we had they didn't have all these Environmental Protections and so the cost of manufacturing and the cost of Labor Capital was all much lower in a country like China and so we were able to Outsource that production in order to keep costs down even as the Federal Reserve was printing money and of course the money that we were printing we were sending a brought
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