저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥·기술주 조정이 초입이라 판단하고, 조정 중에는 잦은 매매를 피하고 1~2주 관망 후 저점 분할매수를 권함. 스토캐스틱·MACD상 조정이 상당 부분 진행됐다고 보며 반등 가능성을 언급. 반도체는 레버리지 ETF 조정 폭이 클 수 있어 수익 실현 권고. 테슬라는 단기 조정 후 상승 가능성, 이익실현은 지금, 매집은 다음 주부터 적정 구간. VIX 13 부근은 과거 위기 직전 패턴과 유사하다고 경고.
다듬은 글
Yes, . Currently, the Nasdaq fell by about 1% last Friday, and the tech sector also saw a decline of about 1–2%. As you can see, a correction is already underway to some extent. The Slow Stochastic K-Cap is dropping close to 50, and since the D-value follows this trend, we can expect the market to show signs of rebounding after a correction like this.
So, the point I want to make is that a correction is currently in progress. That is why, starting a few weeks ago—around last week—I emphasized that for those currently making profits, this is the timing to realize them first. Since it is the right time to realize profits, I suggested that realizing some of your cash holdings and then investing the remainder towards the end of the next correction phase could be a viable strategy.
However, since a correction is currently in progress, for those who have not chosen that path, I believe now is not the time to make small, frequent buy and sell orders. In other words, unlike infinite buying during a downside phase... Even if you are accumulating shares, there is no need to force a correction and start from the very beginning.
Since you can increase your volume at a sufficiently low price by accumulating after about a week once the correction has progressed to some extent, my recommended strategy is to minimize trading for about one to two weeks. In other words, buying belatedly right now is not a good timing, nor are extreme strategies—such as selling all your positions to look for a re-entry point or selling everything to short—I do not think this is the right time either.
This is because the market is currently in an uptrend, so the correction itself can move quite rapidly. In other words, there is a high probability that a rebound is already occurring even though it may not feel like the correction has been very long. To demonstrate this, as those of you who trade domestic stocks know, the KOSPI did not feel like it was falling that much recently.
We simply thought there was some gradual sector rotation, but as you can see from the Slow Stochastic and MACD indicators, the correction itself has already finished quite significantly. So, regarding the situation, we might have been accustomed to corrections where only the value dropped by 3% or -5%, or the index itself fell by 3%.
However, as you can see, since we are currently in an upward trend with rising lows and highs, this correction may proceed without giving us the strong impact we expect. Also, while the index itself might fall a bit more than anticipated, the gains from targeting rising sectors are often greater than the gains from that decline.
Therefore, rather than focusing solely on risky short positions, if you look at the KOSPI in Korea, the fact that the correction has already progressed to this extent means that a rebound could occur in about a week or two. Since the US has already entered the initial stages of a correction, it may not progress as much as Korea.
In other words, the market is likely to rebound from around this level. Because a trend of continuous rebounds from the top, similar to the previous COVID-19 rally, could emerge, rather than hastily shorting or buying/selling, if there are those who wish to realize profits during this short-term correction period...
If you hold cash and hold off on trading for about two weeks, or if you are preparing for long-term investment and intend to accumulate shares, there is no need to sell. Instead of buying right at the beginning of this phase, if you wait about a week or two before resuming purchases, you can expect quite decent returns.
Looking at individual stocks, as you can see with Nvidia, the index can show stronger energy above the current level than expected, just as it creates a reversal even when it appears a correction is starting. Since it is already at a significantly high position, you must remember that even a small amount of buying pressure here can cause it to surge upwards.
In the case of Tesla, I mentioned in last week's video that taking some profits would be a good idea. As you can see, it is likely to rise after a short correction based on the moving averages. Since it is still in the early stages and there is a probability that it will touch the support zone of the moving averages before moving up, those who wish to take profits should do so now.
However, if you are accumulating shares, starting around next week will allow you to gather at a sufficiently suitable level. It means we are in a specific zone. So, what I want to tell you in today's video is ultimately that you shouldn't rush. Yes, don't rush. The important thing is that when the waves come, we ride them from a good position.
You need to ride the waves from a good position to go far, but that doesn't mean we need to enter the market when the wave is finishing just because we missed a wave. The reason I mentioned the ratio of waves is that waves keep coming. Even if we miss one, the next wave will come, so there is no need to feel disappointed about missing a wave.
Just like when surfing or riding waves, we don't feel regretful about missing a wave or it passing by. Of course, we would be upset if it were a really big wave—or a wave worth betting our lives on—but anyway, the important thing is that waves will come again someday, and if we continue to ride even those calm waves well, we can make a profit.
However, the problem is that if you miss a big wave and forcefully enter the market while a big wave is crashing downwards, you will end up just getting soaked. So, now is the time to train yourself to find the right entry timing with a certain amount of patience. Since you missed a wave once... The point is that until the next wave comes, we need some time to observe rather than making hasty investments.
So, looking at other market factors, bond yields are in a phase of stabilization to some extent. Therefore, we don't see any signs of a shock-like surge here. However, the reason we shouldn't let our guard down too much is this: let's take a look at the VIX. The VIX has dropped to almost 13. But if we look at the period before COVID-19 and previous crises, where did these crises originate?
Typically, they showed a pattern of sudden spikes when the VIX was positioned around 13 or 12. So, what is the current situation? It means we have now entered a similar zone. While it is good to celebrate during this period of stability, we must now establish principles even if we invest. We need to consider when to implement an exit strategy and when to realize profits.
Of course, the market is maintaining this low VIX level because it is stable, but just as protection has always occurred in the past, such a stable VIX zone has existed before a major crisis. Therefore, regarding these crises, whether it be COVID-19 or... I am telling you to be aware that whenever various crises occurred, whether it was due to rising bond yields or the European crisis, the outcome was that they followed a period of relative stability—a time when no one was investing in bullish trends rather than put options, meaning investors were going long and sentiment was quite strong.
That said, for those who start investing now with a "show, show, show" mentality, it is meaningless because they will have nothing left when the crisis hits. Therefore, even if we are investing in bullish trends and accumulating positions now, we must adopt a somewhat safe approach. This means we should not accumulate at excessively high levels, nor should we buy at excessively high prices; instead, we must aim for entry points at consistently low levels.
For example, in the case of Tesla, the bullish trend is now taking shape, isn't it? If the bullish trend is self-assessing, then we must make an effort to target the lower end. As for indices, since the Nasdaq, QQ, and S &P 500 are currently at the beginning of a correction, I am suggesting that it would be best for us to observe the market to identify where the support zone is being established.
However, regarding the semiconductor index... As you can see, the K-value itself has dropped significantly. This means that after a strong correction, it will likely close quickly. Therefore, in the semiconductor sector, the correction could be even stronger and faster. Also, since the divergence is already around 10% to 15%, those using 3x leverage could see their returns drop to as low as minus 40%.
So, keeping these factors in mind, if you have been trading semiconductors somewhat aggressively, I would advise taking a break at this point if you are in a zone where you can realize profits. The reason I am saying this is entirely my opinion. An opinion means it can be wrong. I am speaking with that in mind.
Recently, looking at society—as there have been news reports about YouTubers being caught—there are many instances where people buy stocks they own in advance and then disclose them to tens of thousands of people to influence market prices or indices. They irresponsibly give buy or sell recommendations and continue to insist on their views until they prove correct.
Therefore, there are many such cases. I want to emphasize that you simply need to extract the parts that will ultimately be helpful to you from among those things. Regarding the opinions I offer, you should absorb the parts that are beneficial and cut out the ones you do not. In other words, since you can simply cut them out, I hope you keep this in mind and continue to gain insights and help through my YouTube channel.
Ultimately, investing is something we must manage on our own, and because that is always the case, what I emphasize on YouTube is presenting a few scenarios. I present scenarios 1, 2, and 3, and I believe it will be helpful for you to develop the one that fits your own style. In particular, since I have experienced this myself, I hope you understand that I advise you to avoid risky investments as much as possible, depending on the investment method suited to your individual tendencies. So, I will end today's video here.
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