저자: TerrySmith · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 투자 철학을 바탕으로 한 Terry Smith의 5가지 핵심 투자 원칙 소개 핵심 결론: 좋은 기업을 사서, 적정 이상으로 비싸게 사지 않고, 그냥 보유하라는 것이 핵심 투자 철학이다. 1) 좋은 기업 매수 원칙: 대부분의 펀드매니저는 나쁜 기업도 턴어라운드 기대로 사지만, 예측 가능한 꾸준한 성과를 내는 좋은 기업만 사야 한다는 주장 2) 과도한 지불 금지: 아무리 좋은 기업도 가격 상한선이 있으며, 닷컴버블·2008 주택위기 등 역사적으로 '가격이 너무 높은 것은 없다'는 믿음이 재앙을 낳았다는 주장 3) 아무것도 하지 않기: 좋은 기업을 적정가에 산 뒤에는 거래를 최소화해야 하며, 수수료·세금·스프레드 비용을 줄이고 복리 효과를 누리기 위함 4) 투자 범위 제한(능력 범위): 은행·보험·부동산·경기순환주(엔지니어링·화학·철강)·유틸리티·자원주·항공사는 보유하지 않음. 워런 버핏의 '능력의 원(circle of competence)' 개념 적용 5) 좋은 기업의 특징: 오래된 기술이나 변화가 적은 소형 소비재(면도기, 엘리베이터 등), 반복적 필수소비재, 강한 브랜드, 예측 가능한 반복 매출을 가진 기업 선호 예시 종목: 콜게이트 팜올리브(치약·칫솔 세계 1위, 매출총이익률 약 60%, 현금전환율 113%). 2012년 이후 주가 약 63.8% 상승, 배당 약 40.7% 추가 수익(재투자 없이). 출연자 전망: 2012년 강연 기준 콜게이트 및 자신의 투자 철학이 여전히 유효하다고 주장. 다만 영상 자체는 장기 투자 철학 중심이며 특정 자산의 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 리스크/조건: 영상은 철학 설명 중심이며, 시장 사이클이나 밸류에이션 변화에 따른 리스크에 대한 구체적 언급은 제한적임.
다듬은 글
Terry Smith also known as the English Warren Buffett can teach us a lot about investing so let's explore the five main points that he believes are the most important in investing let's learn how to think about investing how to find great companies and how to avoid losers and as a bonus at the end of the video Terry Smith will also show us how he applies these principles in real life situations but if we are going to learn we should make sure we can really trust the teacher well Terry Smith started his Fund in 2010 and since then his rate of return has been an incredible 14.8% per year that is over 54% since Inception so he may know a thing or two about investing okay so let's start with his first Timeless lesson I apologize for for what I'm about to say next if you're not in the financial because it sounds blindingly obvious because it is but the vast majority of fund managers do not do it we seek to buy very good companies and people the reason I say that is when I've said that over time to people who are not in financial services uh and they say well don't all fund managers buy good companies no I was a broker for many years in my experience they'll buy all kinds of rubbish uh they'll buy it because it's going to get better because it's going to be taken over because the Management's going to change because the Cycle's going to change because somebody bought them lunch told them a funny story we don't do that now there are a few people out there who can make money buying bad companies and getting it right when things change but frankly they are a very small minority and equally frankly I really don't want to sit there with a bad company while I'm waiting for things to get better I want something that adds a small predictable incremental amount of extra value to what we own every single day of its life predictably buying great companies makes the whole whole investing process so much simpler it is just easier not to worry about external factors Market Cycles changes in the management and so on but instead just choose companies that may be boring but which have a long history of delivering predictable results quarter after quarter and year after year okay so let's get to the second point now I did in in the course of being a broker in counter a few fund managers who did actually go out and buy good companies and they'd say well there's my portfolio what do you think I go well they're all very good companies they they would qualify on what I would call a good company yes they say well why do you think I keep underperforming I said well that's pretty simple you overpaid so the other thing we've got to do is not overpay we have to have UND discipline about what we're prepared to pay even the very best companies have a price that we cannot possibly pay for them we have seen many times in the history that thinking that there is no such think as a price too high may lead to terrible disasters like the nifty50 dotom bubble or 2008 housing crisis all of them occurred because more and more people believed that a certain asset will always go up in value and therefore there's no such thing as a price to high so what should we do when we buy a great company at a fair price the most important thing we're going to do with this F other than identifying and buying good companies and not overpaying for them is and this is the most difficult part of it okay we're going to do nothing that's the really difficult bit once we've found the good company and we've bought it at a good price we're going to sit on our hands and Endeavor not to deal in it and the reason we do that is several fold the main one is every time you deal you incur costs you incur Commissions in the UK you incor stamp Duty and you incore bid office spreads we don't do that for that reason we also don't do that reason is because there are very very very few companies that fit our criteria and changing one is dangerous basically uh finding another one is incredibly difficult doing nothing after we invested in a great company at a fair price is crucial because it allows compounding to do its magic if we just let it slowly gain momentum and not interfere with the process we have a decent chance of making such investment work okay so these three rules make total sense buy great companies don't overpay and do nothing but how can we find a great company there are lots of parts of the market that we simply will not own um it means that we have a limited number of things that we have to think about that's good because actually there's a limited number of things we're capable of thinking about and the good news is at least we've managed to identify that whereas a lot of people haven't managed to figure out that they they're capable of thinking about very few things we'll never own a bank we'll never own an insurance company we'll never own a real estate company we won't own anything that's heavily cyclical like engineering uh or chemicals or or um uh steel for example we won't own any utilities we won't own any resources and the one thing we will never ever own no matter what ever happens is an airline so we should start looking for a great company by limiting our options Warren Buffett calls it his circle of competence we have to Define our own Circle invest only in companies we understand that have certain characteristics that we find attractive and easy to understand and avoid or at least try to avoid companies with a lot of moving Parts with a lot of unpredictability okay so we know what not to buy but what should we buy what we like is really old line techn technology stuff that doesn't change much we like investing in elevator companies Mr Ro has patented the safety elevator in about 1850 it hasn't changed since it's the same design uh we like investing in shaving businesses Mr Gillette patented the safety razor in about 1908 it hasn't changed significantly uh if any of you go to India you'll find that the safety razor the original one where you twiddle the shaft and the Jaws open you drop a blade in is still gillette's biggest selling product in India um that's the sort of Technology we like when we're describing it we come down to describe it by the words small ticket consumer non durable small ticket things that we all buy and we buy them by doing this it's not a life-changing experience we don't need to raise a mortgage or use a credit card just take one of these out and buy it it's you don't think about it very much just go and buy it small ticket consumer it's sold to us the consumer uh we don't like things on the whole that are sold to other companies if we can avoid them why companies employ terrible people called purchasing managers purchasing managers job is to negotiate on price then to negotiate on payment terms then to find a reason to rake and come back and get another discount any of you dealt with them more have been personally managers will know you the consumer have no opportunity to negotiate on price if you think you do next time you go in and you're buying your your Cosmetics or your deodorants and toiletries or your household cleaning products or your snacks have a going and negotiating on price let us know how you get on I think you'll come out empty-headed so small consumer non durables we don't like company that make durable items if you've got a durable item like a car and you're feeling a bit hard up just have it serviced it will be here next year probably um whereas with the things that we buy once you've consumed it you want some more you have to go buy some more so we're looking at companies that basically do our everyday necessities and luxuries uh people who if you you ask us to define a single characteristic of these companies they make their money out of a large number of everyday predictable events basically predictability reoccurring Revenue Simplicity and a power of Brands such things create a durable competitive advantage that is something that Warren Buffett calls a mod we may Define great companies differently but I have to say that Terry Smith's approach is so simple and elegant that it is very appealing so if you want to clone Terry Smith's investment philosophy you know what to avoid what to look for and how to act when you find it and now let's see an example of a company that is a perfect fit for such an investment philosophy one of the things that we really like to invest in for example is toothpaste okay so we're going have a little go at toothpaste I think as an audience could I ask you all to put your hand up would you mind all just putting your hand in the air would you do that for me okay now I'm going to ask you to put your hand down if I name your brand so I'm going to Oral B put your hand down if you use RB to brush your teeth Crest signal pepsodent Colgate okay we got you covered ultra bright I could fling in a few others you get my drift uh just one example of a company we own Colgate it's 206 years old the average company in our portfolio was founded in 1892 they survived the Great War the second world war and the Great Depression they'll probably survive whatever comes next probably yeah much should think um Colgate is the number one worldwide in toothpaste and toothbrushes it operates with 60% gross margins uh to put that in English it makes it for two and sells it for five it gives you an awful lot of capability to deal with the odd bump in the road when you've got those kind of characteristics as a result it makes over 50% return on Capital employed in cash it converts last year 113% of profits Into Cash we like cash it's the only thing they can pay us a dividend in so we really like it and the really good bit is there's a path to growth 2third of the world doesn't use toothpaste but they will you know as people become more prosperous it's a key thing that people will do so that's an exam just an example of the sort of company that we like just to check if such investment approach really makes sense let's take a look at the numbers since this speech in 2012 the stock of Colgate palmola went up by 63.8% and the dividends generated another 40.7% over that time period and that is without reinvesting the dividends so not a bad result for a boring predictable business which was created when Thomas Jefferson was the president and I really believe that Terry Smith's investing philosophy is just as relevant today as it was in 2012 we may agree with Terry Smith or we may not but he sticks to his main rules through the years and his results are exceptional and of course we always have to find the right investment strategy for us the one that fits our character and our goals but buying great companies not overpaying and doing nothing seems like an interest in way to go if you enjoyed this video you may want to check out my other video about five not so easy steps to financial independence by clicking over here thank you so much for watching and see you in the next one
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