저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 회의(7/29 수요일)를 앞두고 지정학 리스크(이란 전쟁 재개, 우크라이나 연루)와 유가 상승으로 금리 인상 가능성이 커졌다고 분석. 최근 하락장은 실적·수급 피로와 Warsh 연준 매파 전환 영향이며, AI 메모리·엔비디아 기대치는 이미 반영됐다고 봄. 나스닥100 675 지지 가능성, 소프트웨어 반등은 숏커버링으로 경계, 장기적으로는 저점 매수 관점 유지. 출연자 소속은 자막상 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Oh, my friend, here we are again . Another day when yesterday's futures promised us a "green" market, but it turned red again. In this video, we'll break down what happened and what to expect from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. This is very important, along with Kevin Walsh. Are we facing an insidious collapse?
And how will this affect short-term, medium-term, and long-term investments? We'll break it all down in this video. What exactly is worth paying attention to? We will also talk about the situation with Iran and the fact that Ukraine is now involved too— which is very strange, because last week Kuwait and Bahrain got involved , and now Ukraine.
It always feels like a world war is starting , right? I hate this, I don't want to sound hyperbolic , but it's like what people write in the comments—like a joke that rings truer every day when they say, "They told me if I vote for Kamala there'll be World War II." And then people say I was right, or they were right.
Of course. Whatever , we are here. So, let's put the jokes aside, because, you know, jokes and markets are serious business. Let's get to the facts we need to know. I want to start by saying that I'm being told that many of you are n't getting notifications for all the videos. For example, I did a great detailed analysis of Tesla and SpaceX regarding their valuation and price targets, especially after the stocks fell sharply—although, to be fair, we predicted this decline, and we're not trying to be Nostradamus.
We are simply trying to say that there are fundamental reasons. Sometimes things happen that are worth paying attention to. So, it was a public video, and I made a lot of videos like that about it. If you're not getting all the videos, there are a few steps you can take. Don't rely on YouTube to send all notifications.
You can press the "bell ", but, honestly, it's not even worth it. In my opinio customize your notifications to your liking. You can turn on all YouTube notifications if you want. This way you will never miss a video. And you can also use the completely free Alphawire service, which is really cool. Well, mostly because you can open Alpha Wire and see the latest news or earnings reports coming into the feed.
This is literally what CNBC or Bloomberg use when they say, "Oh, we have breaking news in the feed," and they read you some of the events that are coming up. Here, for example, is one of them. Only one in three Americans supports war with Iran, most are unsure of Trump's goals. You know, this is a fresh poll that just came out, it's somewhat relevant, but it's less important.
Just pointing out one of the things that was literally here when I opened this. Well, there's a lot of useful information there. It's worth a look, it's less distracting than Twitter, and you get all the video notifications. So ? Well, first of all , the premarket, the futures told us that today there should have been a significant increase in the stock market, but that didn't happen.
There was no growth today because, in my opinion, there are three huge uncertainties at play right now. By the way, I talked about all three in Alpha membership this morning. You can join him at me.com. Here are these three points. This week I said there was an 80% chance that the NASDAQ 100 would reach $675 per share.
And this was when the market was in the "green zone" by 80 basis points in the premarket, because I sent this alert about an hour before the market opened. I submitted this in the Alpha report. I said, look, the market is in the red right now, but I think we have an 80% chance of falling to 675 this week.
Keep in mind, we literally bounced off the 676 mark on QQQ today. This is a proxy for the NASDAQ 100, and it's not a prophecy, it's a technical support level from which we expected a bounce. Why do I think we're going there? Because of the three problems we are dealing with. We are dealing with reports from Microsoft and Meta, which, after Google and Netflix, do not cause much excitement among people.
They will probably tell us that they spend more money on memory and more money on capital expenditures. And wait, let me zoom in. The market is tired of this. OK. Then we have less understanding of what is happening with Iran and concern that Ukraine is now being drawn into it. I'll explain that, and then we'll move on to the third problem.
So, first of all, Donald Trump is trying to manipulate the Fed now so that they don't raise rates. And I personally believe that Donald Trump is intentionally holding off on strikes on Iran because he knows that the Fed meeting is on Wednesday. The strikes conveniently stopped on Friday. News spread that there were no strikes on Friday night .
So, Friday night, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, it'll be Tuesday. And Tuesday and Wednesday are the Fed meetings. So during the Fed meeting , well, you know, the strike was suspended. Maybe we can wait a little longer before raising the stakes. We have a 34% probability of a rate increase on Wednesday. We have a 66% chance of keeping the rate, but there is still a one in three chance that we will get a raise on Wednesday.
Donald Trump comes out and says the following. Negotiations are ongoing. There is a chance that we can make a deal with Iran. There's a good chance we can achieve something, he says later on board number one. Trump: Iran is talking to us now about making a deal. A deal is inevitable , friends. Don't worry , this time we're very close to a deal.
This is kind of ridiculous, because the memorandum of understanding turned out to be a memorandum of misunderstanding. We are certainly in a much worse situation now, with the Saudis literally afraid to ship their oil through the Bab el- Mandeb Strait, and instead going through the Suez Canal, adding weeks to their transportation time.
We already have low levels of oil and natural gas reserves worldwide. We could do just fine and start replenishing supplies if the memorandum of understanding was actually followed . Oil would still be plummeting in price, which would be great. But, of course, we're back to war again. So Ukraine's accession is now also problematic, because after Ukraine started striking Russian, namely Iranian, ships, which are of course interconnected and trade together in the Caspian Sea, you are actually opening up another front in both the war in Ukraine and in Iran .
And this front actually combines two wars, which turns this into a really big conflict. Russia has now banned the export of diesel fuel because it fears Ukraine will hit more of their ships. But this sea is critical for Iran to get its drones from manufacturers in Russia, deep inside Russia, through rivers into the Caspian Sea to the northern coast of Iran.
This is how they get their equipment. We don't know about US strikes from that side. The US may have intervened from that side, but Ukraine is essentially saying, "Hey, boys and girls, we're here to help you." By the way, can we have a little more money? We need some more money to help fight Russia here .
Frankly, we understand that the war in Ukraine is essentially a proxy war against Russia, where, you know, Ukrainian bodies and American money are fighting Russia to keep it suppressed, which also suppresses China, right? And the idea is that it makes the United States stronger. Of course, what we're really doing now is strengthening Iran in the Middle East, and that's a big problem.
And this, of course , brings us to point number three. Now, again, I'll move on to point number three, because it's really important. I'm not trying to be some kind of fortune teller, as if everything I do is right. I'm not saying I'm perfect. I like to act wisely. When I act wisely, it protects us from FOMO, from reckless risks, from lack of strategy, because if you just buy something randomly, hoping for success, you will get crushed .
Take a look at the Boxabl IPO, for example. It's certainly awkward, but frankly, it was predictable. You can literally type into YouTube to find a video where I interviewed these people at the Boxabl facility. And we found out, in my opinion, that it was actually a scam. And I made a video about it.
I said: Boxabl is essentially a $3 billion fraud. I said they threatened to sue me. They blocked me from X. They never sued me because everything I said was just what they said themselves. What we said was either our opinion or something we could back up with facts. So it's pretty hard to judge someone when you do something like that.
And this was a video I made as a warning about Boxabl. Boxabl fell 13% today alone. It fell 60% from its SPAC price and 70% from its IPO price in just one week. Fundamental indicators can tell us that this will happen. Fundamentals can tell us that a company like SpaceX will lose money before it can really grow.
You have to go through these losses before you can grow. It's like: first the pain, then you can grow. In the case of Boxible, they will probably go bankrupt. But this is my opinion, I don't know for sure. I'm researching this for a separate video. But I think these founders are pumping money out of Boxible because they know it's a sinking ship, and they're dumping the funds into a charity and then taking big salaries there themselves.
I do n't know. This is just an opinion. I'm checking to see if this is true. This may be completely untrue. This is, well, you know, let's call it a rumor. Don't sue me for this, but it wouldn't surprise me because of other questionable things I've seen before, but we'll do some research before confirming.
So, this is currently an unconfirmed opinion. We'll see. I will get back to you with this information. Some of my suspicions came from the fact that when they bought their brands, which they hinted at in their previous marketing, they, you know, added charity in there . And this is where some of my suspicions come from.
So again, there are fundamental reasons for some of these things, and that's why it's important to keep an eye on what's happening with Worsh this week. So, we'll talk about that now. In honor of all these events that are happening, and frankly, that was a very valid point in the Alpha report. This must have saved a lot of people money over the past few weeks, so we're introducing a coupon code.
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The coupon is not always active. Buy when there is a coupon, but the earlier you buy, the better you can lock in the initial price, because we are constantly releasing more and more materials, and we expect the price to constantly increase. So when the expiration date expires, the price will be higher again.
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Kevin Warsh is really interesting because Kevin Warsh came out and said to us, " Hey guys, we're, you know, encouraged that yields and inflation are coming down ." This is really good. But the problem now is that this was in mid-June, and I do n't think it's a surprise that the stock market peaked around that time.
Isn't that right ? We've already talked about this. It's no surprise that during the "big suck" when Google raises money in early June, SpaceX goes IPO, and Kevin Warsh comes out a little more hawkish—all within the first two weeks of June. It's no surprise that the NASDAQ 100 essentially peaked in the first two weeks, somewhere around the 17th day of June.
Not a surprise at all. That's too much for the market to absorb. So the market has to digest all this crap, including the Fed's hawkish policies. So what do we have ahead of this Fed meeting? Well, what we have is Kevin Warsh, who said during the last session and during his testimony before Congress, "We have no tolerance for persistently high inflation." Just because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was soft in June didn't mean mission accomplished.
We still view inflation as an elevated risk. This was from the July monetary policy report, driven by terrorists, war in the Middle East, and demand for AI. And in June, at the mid-month FOMC meeting, half of the meeting participants were ready to raise rates. Good. So, during that time, half of the committee members were willing to raise rates.
What did we have? We actually had a memorandum of understanding and the hope that oil prices would fall, profitability would decrease, and everything would calm down. What we have now is much worse. What we have now is a significant increase in profitability. And oil prices have skyrocketed again. This is bad.
So if you thought Warsh was a hawk last time, expect him to be even more hawkish this time because he has to maintain the bond market's confidence. This is a problem because it means he needs to prepare for a possible rate hike unless the employment data starts to deteriorate, which is also bad because to some extent the employment data is already deteriorating if you look at the ADP report.
Tomorrow we have another weekly ADP report. We will report this. So make sure you subscribe, follow the channel, go to the Me Kevin app , or whatever. You can even use Alpha Wire. You know, you get it for free. Use Alpha Wire in the Me Kevin app and you can see it tomorrow at 5:15 AM. You have to see how it turns out.
But, ultimately, oil prices, you know, hover around $90. A little lower today. That's good amid talk of pauses, but still well above $70, where we were just a few weeks ago. Bond yields have risen 30 or 40 basis points from the level at the last meeting. It seems like the market has already raised rates twice while we've been waiting for the second meeting of the Worsh.
Kevin Warsh really communicated with us at CRA, and that was helpful. It was at an event in Portugal with Sarah Eisen. And at that event with Sarah Eisen, he made it clear to us : "We are optimistic that inflation will continue to decline." He said he feels incredibly calm because inflation expectations are also low, which is fantastic.
He says, "Actually, if we look at the data, the 5- year breakeven rate...Hey, hey, buddy." Wait. Okay, wait one second. I need to pause for a moment. Someone is ringing the doorbell. This is inconvenient. Okay, it seems to have worked. This is actually pretty cool. You can now pause videos on your iPhone.
But look at this for a moment. If you look at the 5-year breakeven rates, fortunately the bond market believes that Warsh will raise rates. The 5-year breakeven rate is only 2.19. The 10- year break-even inflation rate is 2.2. Both figures are still below the peak of May 4. The peak on May 4th was 2.74 at the 5-year breakeven inflation rate, which is pretty impressive, because you're getting close to 2%, right?
You want them to be at 2%, and there is an expectation that Warsh will reach 2% over the 5- year and 10-year terms. The same goes for the 5-year forward rate: what will inflation be in five years, and then in the next five years? Today, as of July 27, this expectation is 2,278. We had a maximum in 2026, close to 2.4.
It was May 19th. So we're effectively seeing the bond market say, "Hey, Warsh is going to do it right. He will raise the stakes." Of course, I hope he doesn't raise the stakes . I want to see rates reduced. But the poor guy found himself between two fires. His thesis, which he reiterated at the CRA with Sarah Eisen, was that first we would see inflation, and then the risk of job losses in the efficiency phase.
So we have to be careful not to overreact to the inflation from the AI boom, and not make the layoffs worse during the optimization phase, because he says, quote, "the supply boom will come," and that could also be why profitability is falling. Warsh will now have to stand before all the FOMC members and say, "Hey, look, give me a little more time." " Give me some more time and we'll lower the rates." But remember, when things were going well during the “memorandum of understanding,” half the committee was willing to raise the stakes.
Things are worse now. It is likely that even more committee members will be willing to raise rates. That doesn't mean they'll rush to do it, and I think a lot will depend on the employment data over the next eight weeks, but it's a real tough situation for Warsh. The fact that the war is now being resumed, Ukraine is being drawn into it, as well as the Houthis, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
This is literally the opposite of what happened last time , when he felt extremely calm. And this is where people often take things out of context. He said, "Listen, I'm very calm as long as the war , you know, continues to move toward resolution." Profitability looks pretty good. We are safe here. We are at a good level to hold on to.
And then people take it out of context, and look , the war escalates . They don't raise rates, and people are like, " Well, you said you were calm, but inflation is even higher now." It's like: you have to have the full context. You know, people do the same thing with the stock market. Like, "Oh, this stock could really go up if X, Y, and Z happen." And then people only hear : "Oh, this stock could grow very well." And they ignore the part about "if X, Y, and Z happen." This is a fundamental part of analysis, and it is this nuance that is often missing.
This is what I always try to provide on this channel. I know that sometimes people get mad at me because the videos are too long, and if they're long, I don't want to watch them myself , just like other people. I'll just make an AI resume. This is normal. But the problem is that there are two types of people.
There are those who will use an AI resume, quickly scan it, and miss all the context. They lose context. What happens then? They don't understand. They cannot absorb information. So when they encounter an error in the future, they won't be able to reason like we do in these videos, because we never learned together.
Many of us here have been studying and researching this for years. So we see this difference, again and again. It's like, you know, when someone writes, "Oh, someone left me a comment under a SpaceX video." They ask, "But Kevin, how can you even say that Starlink has competition?" And I'm like, "Okay, I didn't answer that.
I probably should have. I guess I'll answer that in the video." Amazon is literally applying today for permission to send 515 low-orbit satellites into space, just like Elon, for direct communication with devices through the acquisition of Globalstar. And since they already have about 300, I didn't write down the exact number.
We have about 340 low-orbit Amazon satellites already in space, and they plan to launch their direct-to-device service later this year. So, real competition is emerging there. So let's now summarize all of this, uh , in a little...Oh, yeah. Well, first let me say, I think we can include this in a new section of the poems .
We will make a small new version. We're going to try to do it at the end of the video, just to make sure people don't get mad about me trying to do poetry near the end of the video. Uh, so let's do this towards the end of the video. Let's do a little recap and define what this really means for an investor.
Hey, could you pick her up? Do you want...do you want to star in my video ? You know what? We'll take it on video. It's okay, because we were going to rest and play anyway. Were you just in the water? Do you want to say hello? Can you say hello to the camera? You're shy, aren't you ? This is Violet.
Can you say hello? Greetings. Yes. You are so cute. Good. So, um, you want Oh. Oh. Are you a little cold in the pool? We were at That's why we like spas together, right? The spa was fun when we went there together. Can you go to your mom? I'll be there in a moment . OK. Hey, Max. Could you close that door, buddy?
I'll be out soon. Thank you. Take it away, take Violet away first . Class. Thank you, friend. I will be there now. Good. So, let's try. We really need to summarize three things here. We should also talk about the monetary implications of this, right? Good. So, first of all. OK. The newbie hears about Nvidia deals and how profits are constantly breaking all records.
And the professional looks at this and says, "Bro, we already know what the expectations are going to be. We already know Nvidia is going to announce these circular financial deals because they have to. But even if they announce a 10-year deal for $750 billion , maybe only 40% of that money is potential future revenue from chips, which is only about $300 billion for them.
And the problem is, over 10 years. That only increases their potential revenue by about 11-12% a year. We want 30-40% growth from this company, baby. So the stock market looks at it and says, maybe we shouldn't be rewarding Nvidia so much. And that's what the professional understands: we're not just looking at what's already happening.
We're trying to look ahead. You see, a lot of people, you know, have asked me, "But Kevin, memory is sold out by 2027." You know, I hear that all the time. Newbie says, "But Kevin, memory is sold out by 2030." The price of memory will continue to rise forever. How can you not buy shares of memory manufacturers?
" This is already taken into account. The fact that memory prices have increased 4 times in a year is a red flag. A professional looks and says: the price of memory has increased 4 times, and the CEO of SKH says that we have infinite demand. It makes the professional look and say: " Yes, I've heard this story before, when Elon told us that we have infinite demand for Tesla.
"That's usually a sign that you're nearing a peak. Got it. Okay. What about this Kevin Warsh situation? Okay. So when it comes to Kevin Warsh, the rookie says, "Oh, Kevin Warsh will raise rates once or twice, because that's what the rates markets say ." "And then they'll start lowering them, and everything will be fine." The pro looks at that and says, "No, no, no, not that fast." Alan Greenspan raised rates in the early 2000s, at the peak of the stock market, and he ended up dragging us into the dot-com bubble because he raised rates at the most sensitive time.
We're already seeing the employment data slowing down after the boom in the first quarter. We're seeing the labor market numbers coming down, and now is a very risky time for the Federal Reserve to raise rates because the economy may not be able to withstand another straw that breaks the camel's back .
These are all valid points, right? Let's look at another one. Well, you know, the newbie says, if I vote for Kamala Harris, I'll be stuck in World War II. The pro says, "You're right." In fact, right now, Ukraine, Bahrain, Kuwait—they're all joining in the attacks on Iran, while Russia is supporting Iran and China is silently supporting it.
It's starting to sound like we're forming, dare I say it, two axes. It doesn't sound good. And any short-term talk of a deal could just be Donald Trump trying to get the Fed not to raise rates, because he knows that all these strikes are pushing up oil prices and pushing up bond yields, which actually makes it even harder for the Fed to do its job.
Okay, great. So what are the long-term financial implications? I think it's been very difficult to find leaders in the stock market since the Great Recession. At least this morning it seemed like we had a little rally in the software sector . Some stocks like CRM, Palantir, etc. Yeah, man. Oh my god.
IGV is up 3.3% today. That's fantastic. We've seen this many times since early April. Let me warn you . There are a lot of short squeezes in the software sector. So even if you see a rise in software, be careful. One- or two-day bounces are usually just short squeezes. They don't necessarily last. They don't signal a bottom yet.
Yes, a bottom in software is coming in the future. I firmly believe that. I'm not saying that this is the bottom yet. The next thing we need to think about is the long-term perspective. I still think that using cash prudently to buy on dips is a good thing. Retail buys on dips are actually down to their lowest level since the pandemic began, which is quite a strange.
So to me, that's a signal to buy a little bit on dips. And you know, we bought on dips. If you want to see what we bought last week on dips, you can check that out. We'll probably buy a little bit more this week, too . If you want to know exactly what we're buying and why, what our long-term strategy is, join us at mekevin.com.
You pay once, you get lifetime access. You can get the alpha report through the Meet Kevin app—it's the same place you'll find your notifications or your AlphaWire feed. It's all one great system. Or you can access it on your computer at app.mmeke.com. Again, you just have to join meetkevin.com once, become a course participant, and you'll get instructions on how to set it all up.
We 'd love to see you. Thank you very much. Use the coupon "cruise red," and you know, I think if there's one thing that's really optimistic , it's that on August 3rd, I'll be done with vacations. Maybe this "alpha" should have been left only for the course participants. Well, whatever. . See you and goodbye.
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