저자: Kevin · 외국인
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부동산 시장이 금리 하락으로 일부 반등 조짐을 보이나 재고 증가·경기침체 리스크가 공존해 중립적이라 진단. 레나 실적은 주문 감소·마진 방어 중이나 고가 토지 원가 리스크 지적. 자신의 부동산 스타트업은 가격 하락 시 현금으로 매수할 예정이라 편향을 명시.
다듬은 글
well we just got earnings from Lennar and it's quite useful to look at the Lennar earnings call to get a peek at what's going on in the housing market but not only is it useful to look at Lennar it's also useful to look at the Redfin data center because thanks to dropping rates in January or falling rates in January we actually ended up getting an interesting data release from the Redfin data center take a look at the national median sales price of four homes and what's happening here this is actually some degree of good news now I'm going to explain this in just a moment but I want you to understand this my goal is to be neutral about the housing market I really like for the purposes of my businesses it does not matter what's going on in housing it just matters that housing is stable I don't wanna nobody wants to catch a falling knife and we don't need a massive wave of foreclosures to make money in a massive housing crisis I think that would just prolong the pain and slow down for example what we could do with my housing startup so so for for my bias up front want to be clear does not matter if housing values massively crash they already have corrected 15 to 25 percent in areas throughout the country but it's very important for us to pay attention to this inflection on screen right here because if this trend continues the potential Peak fear that we might otherwise expect in May could soften now we're going to talk about that along with talking about what's going on with the Lennar earnings call the Lennar earnings call I would say is a little bit more on the bad news side whereas this particular report is very interesting this is the Redfin Data Center and typically what we would expect is that come about May June we would expect that year-over-year prices which is this black line right here would be negative as they compare to the light blue line on the left if housing were to stay stable at higher rates however housing is actually starting to slightly Trend up again after the rate drops that we saw in January now for a period of time in February mortgage rates actually increased again so it's past possible that we could have sort of this this drop of this light blue line again and then a take up again afterwards we'll see it also depends on what happens with inventory which is I'll comment on inventory in just a moment but what I want you to see is that we it looks like at the beginning of the year bottomed around 343 here which if we saw a year over year figure from 387 to 343 we'd see a pretty decent correction in Nationwide home prices you could look at individual regions as well to see that some areas are actually doing decently year-over-year like South Florida is booming you're over you're basically flat year over year whereas areas like Idaho and Austin Texas which is where I am right now looking at real estate are down about 20 percent so you've got a nice discount here already but take a look at this you're actually seeing a little bit of a swoop up in pricing right here from 343 to 353 and it's somewhat aligning with this black line right here which means if interest rates were to continue you to fall with mortgage rates it's possible that if inventory stays as low as it is it is possible that once we actually get to the year-over-year numbers that housing prices are actually flattish not as negative as they are when we compare Peak uh which is about April May to now so think about that for a moment compare April May to now across the board Nationwide average you're down 10 percent some areas you're down 20 percent some areas are flat but if we rise into May and we actually get our year over year numbers we might be flat in may not actually year over year negative some areas could actually be positive a lot of this is because of the belief that housing inventory will remain tight and it has been extremely tight every single Market that I visited and I've been probably in about 50 cities in just the last uh oh I don't know uh 60 days here I've been in a plane for for 70 to 80 hours in just the last two months flying around exploring different cities and meeting realtors for my housing startup and what we're finding in every area is yes there are less buyers but they're also way less homes for sale now that could change the one place we think there is a change that could happen is institutional style liquidations Open Door Redfin REITs other companies who ended up buying too high that need to liquidate or even home builders who have a lot of pipeline Home Building massive amount of pipeline home building we have the most pipeline home building that we've seen since about 2006 seven that could end up all coming onto the market around that May June time now if we have this surge of inventory in May June at the same time as we get lower rates because maybe inflation is under control maybe housing could be stable going forward this year however if we are in a fear environment where the Federal Reserve has to raise rates higher inflation is sticky or the banking crisis worsens or unemployment increases then at the same time we have that surge of inventory and we see a reduction of buyers with potentially higher rates that's how you really set up for more pain and that's when you could get that year-over-year Peak fear so I'm not making a a conclusion here in terms of exactly what is going to happen nobody knows that nobody anybody who tells you this is exactly what's going to happen that is oh how's things going to the moon or housing is going to crash into a hole is is in my opinion for some reason leaning towards dishonesty because we we don't know that what we know is the data we know housing prices have corrected 20 and if prices stay stable then that year-over-year fear will hit but if prices rise into the year over year comps then that year your your fear won't it if prices fall into the year of Year may comps then that fear will be even worse so we don't know but the trend we're seeing right now and then we're going to look at this Lennar earnings call in just a moment but the trend that we're seeing right now is that interest rates are coming down on mortgages people are getting over the quote unquote sticker shot of high mortgage rates yes we had an adjustment for higher mortgage rates yes there's still a risk that markets can go down more but as long as we don't get a surge of inventory and rates start trending down we could actually start seeing people buy earlier now I want to show you the Lennar earnings call because they give us some insights so a few things that we're going to look at here first let's look at the actual lindar earnings results and then let's go into their earnings call just remember there are three things you always want to keep in mind here number one if you want to go from zero to millionaire uh in it's amazing great way to get you started if you need life insurance go to metcaven.com life with onee metcaven.com life and if you want 12 free stocks go to metcaven.com free but despite far as the most popular course you lock in lifetime access I'll do fundamental analysis with you as well in our course member live streams we do every day the market is open and then when there are deals to analyze we'll analyze deals so check that out it's most popular to bundle ou new orders decrease 10 percent at Lennar and this is what you're seeing is you're seeing a decrease of orders a decrease of volume but average selling price is holding up and a lot of these companies actually are receiving or seeing a lot of uh height well I should say sustained margins one of the reasons they're seeing sustained margins is actually because they bought a lot of their land in 2019 and 2020 that's the land that is being sold with homes on it now in 2023 the problem is those prices were a lot lower than they are in 2023 for land that means stuff that's now being built that'll end up coming out in 2025 will be being built on very expensive land with potentially lower sales prices or even if we're at stable sales prices at 25 what you end up having is a situation where margins that these home builders are really expected to plummet so you want to be careful with some of the home builders in my opinion at this point especially since there's also there are rumors and speculation of of dare I say near near fraud and this is just rumor and speculation and I'll give my opinion on it but basically what what some home building sales reps are saying is that you could end up having home sales reps and what the home sales reps are doing is they're potentially putting people under contract you see they're putting people under contract whom they know are not qualify to actually buy those homes So eventually the shoe will drop when those deals cancel and the under contracts go away now all of a sudden the appraisals end up getting hit for existing transactions other existing transactions and new ones and when the appraisals get hit now the builders actually really have to start reducing prices and then you actually get a pricing War at the same time as you get a surge of inventory look let me be very clear about this okay if it and I'll be clear with my bias as well okay if here's what you are hoping for if you are a bear what you want is you want a surge of inventory nobody can determine what's going to happen with rates but I promise you if we get an Institutional or a home builder surge in inventory the Bears are going to win here in real estate if you are a real estate bull you think and believe that the amount of buyers we have while it may be lower will be enough to offset the surge in inventory especially since a lot of the move up Market or move down Market the homeowners aren't wanting to get rid of their low rental rates so they're actually turning properties into rentals the problem with this is as people who are keeping Properties or turning properties into rentals you're actually seeing downward pressure on rents that's statistically what we're seeing as well whether it's uh what we're expecting to see through owner's equivalent rents or what we're already seeing through apartment lists vacancy rates up rents down uh Zillow leading indicators for rents rents coming down rents are trending down that actually is also dangerous because it suggests that if you're looking at rental property you should be very conservative with what you are renting out properties for what you're projecting for your property rentals now uh I'm going to give you a couple anecdotes here first I want to be very clear about my bias I have a housing startup we we don't know if our reg a will go through if it does then we can raise money from non-accredited investors probably in May otherwise if you're an accredited investor we close the accredited investor around in two weeks so that's it we people have two more weeks to put money into house hack as an accredited investor and that's tip but what our goal at househack is is we don't actually care if price is uh how much they fall of course we'll get a better deal because they've already fallen a lot but we would rather buy a slightly on the uptrend than catch a falling knife with the startup that's very important for us so I don't really care if prices keep going down we got cash we'll take the money if prices stop falling I get to go to work sooner because we're just sitting on on nearly 30 million dollars in cash uh and you know we might raise you know another 20 to 30 more and if we do our reg a so the point is it doesn't matter to me if prices keep going down we wait if prices stop going down then we start buying right so the point is I I want to be very clear with my biases because like I I don't care what the answer is I just want to know what the truth is and there are a lot of real estate Bears who are telling you the sky is falling and that's not what I'm seeing on the ground I don't think there's anybody else who's actually visit it as many different cities as I've gone to in the last uh in the last two months you could look up my flight history just Google it just go into Google uh type in n88w FlightAware FlightAware n88w go to flight history look at my flights it's I'm fully transparent about where my plane is which I pay for not my startup so you could see all the markets I'm going to I don't think anybody else is doing that and I'm in every single one of the markets and I'm not seeing people deathly fearful of the bear case but I'm also not seeing people super bullish things are pretty neutral right now which is very interesting so that's why I'm reporting this the way I am because that's just the reality of what's going on now let's go jump on over to the earnings call which I've been talking about here stalking Kevin look you could you could pay to like hide your your track flight history or whatever but I actually think it's uh it's good to be transparent but anyway so what do we have here uh okay here's lennar's earnings call for you what do they tell us well first they tell us we purchased very little land this quarter as we await for better pricing in line with current home sales prices in other words Lennar is telling you we are going to wait we are going to wait to buy now that's very interesting because here you have a home builder telling you we're just not going to buy land right now we'll buy back our stock instead very interesting with our balance sheet strong we'll be able to continue with stock repurchases right some markets are performing well however in most of our markets we've had to adjust prices increase incentives or provide mortgage buy Downs that's another thing that's propping up the market right now mortgage buy Downs what else our cancellation rate is 21 it's still pretty dang high it's down from 26 percent though look at the specific markets that are doing well like this market right here Kevin's course member Market with the expiring Saint Patty's Day program linked down below where if you get in you guarantee the best price and the price goes up after that coupon expires what oh wait sorry we've had 10 markets that are performing well Southeast Florida Southwest Florida Tampa I was just there so I grew up in southeast Florida Southwest Florida is like more like Naples than that but I grew up in southeast Florida I just visited Tampa that's interesting that's very interesting because that's what I've seen as well over there palm Atlanta this is where I met Kathy uh Kathy Wood anyway uh New Jersey Philly Charlotte Coastal Carolina's Indianapolis I believe and uh and San Diego now that's very interesting the category 2 markets the markets where we've made more significant adjustments this is like hurricane categories here huh three in no category three markets oh that's good okay so you've got category one markets that are performing well and then you've got category two markets that are not doing so hot those markets include Jacksonville I was just there Orlando I was just there Northern Alabama Atlanta Raleigh I'm going to Raleigh soon Virginia Maryland Chicago going to Chicago soon Minnesota National going to Nashville soon all the markets in Texas I'm in Texas literally right now filming this video I was just in San Antonio yesterday I'm in Austin today uh Dallas Fort Worth probably tomorrow TBD anyway Colorado I've been there like four times Phoenix been there like five times Vegas been there like five times Tucson haven't been there yet and the rest of California and the Pac West including Seattle Utah Reno Boise I mean all of those places all within the last two months while inventory is limited in each of these markets yes we had to offer more aggressive financing programs and base price reductions or increase our incentives in the area very interesting uh in some cases to avoid cancellations we've had to adjust our pricing on our existing contracts or our backlog uh or our new deals and the existing contracts continue to make progress on reducing trade costs this is what makes me very excited about my real estate startup too is I think there are going to be so many opportunities because even if pricing for houses stabilizes I actually think construction costs will come down substantially labor costs and material costs this is a sign of disinflation right here this is actually very very good so if you're looking for disinflation it's right here fantastic lower construction costs helping us on the business side saving about fourteen thousand dollars per home should help us with margins yada yada I'm trying to respect your time so I'm going a little faster here so I'm just curious can you reconcile these comments about pricing maybe finding a clearing price so basically finding a bottom so they say we're looking at pricing on an everyday basis in each Community hey we've heard that before all real estate is local right in a very granular assessment to reconcile what I've said about the end of February at the end of February interest rates started moving dramatically in a different direction that's up and we definitely saw a direct impact in traffic levels that's down we were intrigued to sit watch as we went from February into March now rates are coming down but anyway the sticker shock of rap of high rates is subsiding and so we think we're going into stability the first two weeks of March I agree with that that's roughly what I'm seeing as well however there is also a lot of fear about the banking sector and if people think we're going into a financial crisis in a weird way rates could actually come down but people might not buy real estate because while rates come down they end up having fear about the banking crisis it's entirely possible so bottom line pretty neutral right now on real estate because rates are coming down we have to see how that fear is going to lead to a change in inventory that's actually perfect for my real estate startup because I've been saying for over a year and a half now that we're looking at buying real estate Q3 Q4 uh which we're very excited about you can follow the journey obviously here on the channel you if you're an accredited investor you have two weeks left to invest uh by going to househack.com read the solicitation there this video is not a solicitation uh and the non-accredited round may occur in May subject to a green light from the SEC which obviously we can't guarantee that we'll end up getting but we will operate whether or not we have a reg a obviously I expect we will have a reggae but we have no guarantee no way to guarantee that we will so in the meantime if you're accredited housak.com so that gives you some ideas about what's going on in the real estate market
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