저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
13F 기준 Michael Burry가 7개 포지션 중 6개를 풋옵션으로 보유하며 강한 약세 베팅. 엔비디아 풋이 전체의 48.9%로 최대. 중국 기술주(알리바바, 핀둬둬, 바이두, JD, 트립닷컴)는 지난 분기 롱에서 풋으로 전환. 에스티로더는 유일한 롱(6.6%)으로 소폭 증액. 진행자는 엔비디아 소량 보유 중이나 청산은 안 한다고 언급, 중국 기술주 일부 보유 입장.
다듬은 글
It is that time again. 13F filing season is here and we finally get the behindthescenes look on what the world's biggest investors have been buying and selling. Today we're looking at none other than Dr. Michael Bur. Yes, the same Michael Bur, the man who predicted the housing market crash before it happened and made a fortune betting against the system.
And this time around, he has made one of the most dramatic portfolio shifts we have seen in years. He didn't just adjust a few holdings. He went full 180 from a diversified mix of stocks to an ultraconentrated portfolio where six of his seven positions are bearish bets. And his biggest bet is against one of the markets golden children invidia.
In this video, we will break down what Michael Bur is holding now, which stocks he has completely walked away from, and what can we learn from his strategies. Let's dive in. As I mentioned, Michael Bur's portfolio this quarter is something else. Out of his seven positions, six are put options. Now, if you're not familiar, a put option is basically a way to bet that a stock price will go down.
Think of it as buying insurance that pays off if a stock falls. It's an alternative to shortselling, but with somewhat limited risk. With that in mind, let's look what Michael Bur is betting against and what he thinks can still go up. Starting with his smallest position, a put on bu often called the Google of China, making up about 4.6% of his portfolio.
Next is another put position on trip.com, a top Chinese traveling booking site at 6.4%. The only long position is to SD Lauder. The global beauty brand takes up about 6.6% of his portfolio. Then another put on JD.com, one of China's biggest e-commerce platforms with 8.3% allocation. Next is PDD Holdings, the company behind Pindua, known for its rapid growth in Chinese online retail and close to 12% of Michael Bur's portfolio.
He also has a put option on Alibaba, China's largest e-commerce giant with an allocation of around 13%. And finally, the biggest bet, nearly half of his portfolio, is a massive put position against Nvidia, the AI chip leader. So to sum up, this is a concentrated portfolio with a clear message. Bur is betting heavily against tech, especially in China and the US, but still holding one defensive long position on consumer staples.
All right, let's talk about the elephant in the room, or maybe the juggernaut in the portfolio, Nvidia. Nearly half of Bur's entire portfolio, 48.9% to be exact, is a bet against Nvidia. That is not just a position, that is a full-blown statement. He's taking a massive put position, which means he's betting that Nvidia's stock price is going to drop hard.
Now, here's where it gets interesting for me personally. I actually own a really small position in Nvidia. It is less than 1% of my portfolio. I got in around the $90 price range during the recent dip. And I've even made a video where I break down its valuation because I do believe it's a phenomenal business, especially when you look at its role in the AI and the semiconductor sectors, but not at its current $135 valuation.
At this valuation, it's getting harder to justify the price tag even for a high growth company like Nvidia. So, in a weird way, I kind of get where Barry is coming from. That said, I am not a big fan of shorting and I am not exiting my position just now. In my opinion, it can do well in the long run.
Still, this is classic Michael Bur. He's never afraid to take a contrarian bet. Remember, this is the guy who shorted the housing market when everyone else thought it was rock solid. And now he's pointing his finger at the face of the AI boom and saying this is overhyped. Whether he's early, wrong, or spoton, this is a bold move that tells a lot about how he views the current tech landscape.
Now, let's shift gears because while the Nvidia position is loud, the flip on the Chinese stocks might be even more fascinating. Just last quarter, over 50% of Michael Bur's portfolio was long on Chinese tech. He was buying Alibaba, BU, Pindu, Dua, JD.com, all the big names. And now he hasn't just sold them, he has flipped entirely to put positions.
He's shorting the very same stocks he was long on just a few months ago. And that is a big move. Now, sure, maybe a part of it is just taking profits. A lot of these stocks have gone up recently. Alibaba alone is up over 50% and some of the others have also shown strong runs. And let's be honest, there are always a million reasons to sell a stock.
locking gains, reallocating capital, shifting macro views. But here's the strange part. He didn't just sell, he reversed. He took positions he believed in. And now he seems to believe in the exact opposite. That kind of 180 doesn't happen often unless you have a big change in your conviction. And it's not like this was a small corner of his portfolio.
This was the bulk of it just last quarter. Now he's saying, "I don't just want out. I want to be against it. Now, full transparency, I personally own positions in PDD and Alibaba. In my opinion, there's still value in China tech if you're patient and willing to accept geopolitical risk. But clearly, Bur doesn't see it that way anymore.
Whether it's concerns about China's economy, regulations, or just valuations getting ahead of themselves, we do not know exactly what flipped the switch for Bur. But across the board, Alibaba, Pindua, Buu, JD, and even Trip.com, he has gone bearish. And when someone like Michael Bur makes a move like that, it's worth paying attention.
In a portfolio packed with bearish bets and put options, there is one surprising outlier. Estee Lauder. Now, this isn't a flashy tech stock or a speculative gamble. SD Lauder is a global leader in luxury beauty products. It is known for high quality skin care, makeup, fragrances, and hair care. What's even more interesting is the fact that Bur actually doubled down on this position since last quarter.
And if you would like to see a deeper dive into the stock itself, I actually covered it in detailed in my last video on Bur's Q4 2024 portfolio. This position reminds me a bit on Barry's old bet on VF Corp, a classic turnaround play. SD Lauder has faced its share of struggles lately. Supply chain issues slowing growth in China and margin pressures, but the core brand is still strong.
So while almost all of Bur's capital is currently betting on market pain, this one stock, just 6.6% of his portfolio, might be a small hedge, a calculated bet that if things normalize, there's serious upside potential. It's a quiet position in the middle of a storm, but it says a lot. So, what do we make of this entire portfolio?
On the surface, it looks like Bur has gone full doomsday mode. Six out of seven positions are put options. Nearly half of his portfolio is shorting Nvidia and he's flipped completely on his Chinese positions. But look closer and it's classic Michael Bur. This isn't the first time when he has made a bold contrarian bet when markets seem euphoric.
We've seen this before with the housing market in 2008 and more recently with a speculative tech during the postcoavid boom. However, what's different this time is the level of concentration. Gone is the diversified basket of healthcare, insurance, and consumer names. Now, it's a lean, focused portfolio with just a few names and a clear message.
Bur thinks the market is way overheated, especially in tech. Of course, that doesn't mean he'll be right. Timing a crash or even a correction is notoriously difficult, but love him or hate him, when Bur makes a move like this, he is not playing games. He's putting serious money behind it, and that alone makes it worth watching.
So, will this be another big short moment or a big miss? Only time will tell. But one thing's for sure, when Bur speaks, the market listens. And this quarter, Bur is shouting. But what do you think? Do you think Michael Bry is on to something? Are you adjusting your portfolio? Comment with your thoughts in the comment section down below.
If you enjoyed the video, consider subscribing and clicking the like button. And as always guys, thank you for watching and I hope to see you in the next one. Bye.
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