저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2024년 3분기 13F 포트폴리오 분석. 알리바바(약 25%), JD.com(약 24%), Shift4 결제(16%), 바이두(16%), 몰리나헬스케어 등 상위 보유 종목을 소개하고, 65% 이상이 중국 기업에 집중된 점과 기술·이커머스 중심 성장 전략을 설명. 알리바바·JD·바이두에 대한 긍정적 평가와 중국 규제·경기둔화 리스크 언급. 2008년 CDS 베팅, 2019년 게임스탑 사례와 연결해 역발상 투자의 교훈을 정리.
다듬은 글
Michael bur the legendary investor known for his bold and contrarian bets and the person who managed to predict the 200 2008 financial crisis has once again made waves with his Q3 2024 portfolio through his hedge fund San assets management bur disclosed eight positions with 83 million in total value in this video will break down his key positions explore the rationale behind his decisions and uncover lessons for investors this is my first video in the super investor portfolio Series so if you haven't yet consider hitting the Subscribe button to stay updated with future portfolio breakdowns and now let's dive into Michael bur's Tob Holdings and what they reveal about his investment mindset so to start off with over 25% the Chinese e-commerce and cloud computing giant Alibaba is B largest holding this allocation highlights his conviction in a company's ability to navigate regulatory challenges and leverage its vast ecosystem for growth the second largest position in his portfolio with around 24% is jd.com another major Chinese player in the e-commerce space known for its Cutting Edge Logistics and expansion into fintech and healthc Care spaces Shift 4 payments is the third largest holding in bur's portfolio and focuses on the booming fintech sector specifically cashless Payment Solutions aligning with global Trends towards digital transactions it consists of 16% of bur's portfolio Buu is bur's fourth largest holding with almost 16% allocation P's focus on AI and autonomous driving Technologies make makes it a key player in China's Tech and Innovation sectors bur's fifth largest position is Molina Healthcare a significant defense position Molina balances the portfolio with exposure to government-backed healthc care programs in the US additionally bu has small positions in all uplex Holdings Incorporated real real Incorporated and American Coastal Insurance Corp looking at his portfolio we can clearly see that over 65% of bu's portfolio is concentrated in Chinese companies signaling a bold bet on the Region's economic recovery and long-term potential this Focus contrast with bur's historical us- centered portfolios showing his adaptability to Global opportunities also we can clearly see that the portfolio leans heavily into the tech and e-commerce which make up over 80% of the allocation reflecting bur's growth oriented strategy however the inclusion of Molina Healthcare adds a layer of stability mitigating the risks associated with high growth sectors now let's dive deeper into each of his top Holdings Alibaba dominates Berry portfolio with a 29% increase in shares this quarter but why such conviction Baba isn't just an e-commerce giant it's a leader in cloud computing and digital media which are critical growth engines the company's vast ecosystem offers resilience and scalability additionally Alibaba has a really solid free cash flow trading at between 6 and 12 price to free cash flow ratio for the past few years which is a really solid number that gives the company the opportunity to continue its Investments and scale their growth in the future adding to that alibaba's latest earnings report showed year-over-year Revenue growth increase of 9% with strong performance in cloud services growing their customer base also its International e-commerce platforms Lazada and Ali Express continue expanding offsetting domestic challenges however very are negatives to the company as well for example regulatory pressures from the CCP but the Chinese Communist Party seems to have changed their mind on the Crackdown and instead decided to stimulate the economy Additionally the Chinese economy has been seeing a Slowdown which naturally could affect further growth numbers for Alibaba there is also the factor of foreign politics for example recently reelected Donald Trump has already already announced plans to impose new tariffs on China regardless of all of these things this investment signals bur's belief in alibaba's ability to navigate uncertainty and emerge stronger especially as China's economy stabilizes bur doubled down on China acquiring jd.com Vis quarter making it his second largest holding JD's strengths lie in its unparalleled Logistics Network which gives it an edge in the Chinese competitive e-commerce space so what is driving bur's confidence JD's focus on Automation and AI in its warehouses has reduced costs and improved efficiency the company is also diversifying into Healthcare and fintech opening new revenue streams when it comes to cons in my opinion JD has the same issues as Alibaba regulatory pressures from the CCP slowing China's economy and foreign politics nevertheless this aggressive addition suggest that bur sees jd.com as a long-term winner in China's evolving Retail Landscape the same as Alibaba with 50% increase in shares Shift 4 payments has become a Cornerstone in bur's portfolio the fintech company caters to sectors like Hospitality retail and and sports offering endtoend Payment Solutions so what's so exciting about Shift 4 the global shift towards cashless payments is creating massive growth opportunities also Shift 4 has recently expanded into the European markets positioning itself for international growth however the company is sensitive to consumer spending as a Payment Processing Company Shift 4 relies heavily on transaction volume economic downturns or weak consumer spending especially in the hospitality and Retail sectors could pressure its Merchant clients and slow adoption of its services competition is another notable challenge for Shi for payments the payment processing industry is highly competitive with established players like Square PayPal and ADN as well as traditional Institutions and emerging fintech startups however despite all of that this investment shows bur's continued confidence in the company and aligns with his tendency to back disruptive companies in emerging Industries Buu often referred as the Google of China is another major addition its focus on AI and autonomous driving Technologies makes it a stand out in China's Tech landscape and here's a couple reasons why baou could be a GameChanger strong Ai and Cloud potential Buu is heavily investing in artificial intelligent Technologies including autonomous driving healthc care education and AI cloud services which are critical sectors and have a lot of growth potential in the future additionally Buu Remains the leader in China's internet search Market providing a stable Revenue base and leveraging its data advancements in AI and other Technologies however there are flaws as well B's Revenue growth has stagnated since 2021 with only marginal increases recently this reflects challenges in scaling its score and new business segments also as a Chinese company they face similar risks as Alibaba and JD in a big contrast to his Tech heavy bets Barry's investment in Molina Healthcare highlights his defensive side Molina specializes in Medicaid and Medicare plans making it a steady performer in volatile markets so why Molina as Government back programs Medicaid and Medicare provide predictable Revenue Molina manages to turn Revenue into steady profitability additionally as a provider of Essential Health Services Molina benefits from the defensive nature of the health care sector offering stability during economic downturns with an aging US population demand for managed health care services is poised to grow so what are the flaws recent membership guidance reductions suggest challenges in maintaining robust growth especially in the Medicaid enrollment leaving it vulnerable to changes in state budgets and federal funding allocations to sum up I would say that this position balances the portfolio off offering stability amid the risks of the tech Investments bur has also investments in free smaller positions Olex A specialized player in the beauty industry renowned for its patented Hair Care Solutions olaplex caters to a niche audience with a focus on high margin science driven products achieving consistent but modest Revenue growth amid Market challenges he also has a position in the real reel a Pioneer in the luxury resale Market real re operates a unique Consignment model for high-end Goods but its recent valuation struggles highlight the growing competitive pressures and consumer caution in discretionary spending as you can see bur has cut his real real position in half bur also reduced his position in American Coastal Insurance focused on providing property and Casualty Insurance in coastal regions acic faces significant risks from climate change driven weather events leading to Sharp Market skepticism about its growth and profitability so after reviewing Michael bur's Q3 portfolio we can clearly see a reflection of the strategies that have defined his career and his ability of making bold High conviction moves he's known of concentrating his port folio into a select few High conviction positions often taking large calculated risks on opportunities that he thinks are significantly undervalued this is clearly seen in his investments in Alibaba JD and BIDU three major tech stocks in the Chinese environment these moves kind of remind me of his approach during the 2008 financial crisis when he made a daring bet against the housing market by betting on subprime mortgage backed Securities that most investors thought were safe like that in famous trade bu's bets on that Chinese Giants demonstrates his preferences for taking sizable positions in areas where he sees massive upside potential even when others are skeptical he has the ability to take contrarian bets that go against the market sentiment and the bet on China is a clear example in this as they Define widespread caution and skepticism around China's regulatory environment and Market volatility this also mirrors his 2019 GameStop position where he took a substantial risk on a company many thought was on its way out bur saw the potential where others saw a dying retail chain While most investors were busy counting GameStop out he was loading up showing once again that he has the ability of spotting value before it becomes trendy like GameStop did so what can investors learn from all of this Michael Berry's portfolio offers valuable lessons for retail investors but it's important to approach them with a sense of realism burry is an exceptional investor with deep understanding of the markets that comes from Decades of experience his bold moves on heavily concentrating on high conviction stocks aren't for everyone for most retail investors putting their money into few large Peds isn't just risky it's often Reckless it takes years of practice analysis and a unique mindset to confidently make such bold bets that's why diversification remains a key strategy for many of us providing stability and reducing the impact of mistakes that said bur's contrarian approach also reminds us not to fear taking calculated risks and going against Market sentiment the market isn't always right and significant opportunities often arise when the crowd overreacts a great example is the dramatic turnaround in meta formerly known as Facebook in 2022 it stock plummeted from 380 to just 90 bucks with many declaring the company's best days behind it yet it rebounded now trading at almost $600 rewarding those who saw Pro a panic bur's approach teaches us to combine research with courage and balancing risk with stability while it's essential to be adaptive and responsive to changing market conditions as bar often is it's equally important to understand your own limits for most of us blending bold decisions and diversification can strike the right balance between ambition and caution so what do you think about bur's portfolio and his bald bet on China do you agree with his strategy let me know in the comments and as always guys thank you for staying till the end of the video and don't forget to like And subscribe for more insight in the portfolios of super investors thank you and I hope to see you in the next one bye
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