저자: ValuePlaybook진행자 · 외국인
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Li Lu(Himalaya Capital)의 13F 포트폴리오를 분석. 최근 분기에 애플 지분을 절반 이상 축소(약 3%대), 옥시덴탈은 버크셔 투자 및 탄소포집 기대로 긍정 평가, 알파벳은 실적·AI 성장 긍정하나 규제·광고 의존 리스크 지적. 진행자는 옥시덴탈을 가장 매력적인 추가 매수 후보로 꼽음. 애플은 성장 둔화 대비 고밸류로 프리미엄 부적절 언급, 은행주는 선호하지 않는다고 함. 장기 관점 중심이며 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
lelu is often called the Chinese Warren Buffett and for a good reason he is famously known as The Only Money manager that Charlie Munger has publicly endorsed leelu is the founder of Himalaya Capital which manages billions of dollars in assets today since its Inception Himalaya Capital has delivered an average annual return of over 30% which is nothing short of amazing leelu's moves disclosed in his latest 13f filing offer unique insights for investors seeking long-term growth this is my fourth video in the super investor portfolio Series so consider subscribing to not miss out on future deep dives into Super investor portfolios in this video I will dive into leelu's portfolio explore each of his Holdings and reveal the one lelu stock I believe could join my portfolio at its current valuation stay tuned to find out which one leelu's portfolio showcases a mix of highquality companies with a strong focus on long-term value his smallest position accounting for a little over 1% of his portfolio is in Sable offshore Corp a company involved in the offshore oil and gas exploration sector lelu has invested almost 3% of his pfolio into Apple a global leader in technology known for its consumer electronics and software Services accidental petroleum accounts for 3% of his portfolio the company is a major player in the oil and gas industry with a strong preference in Exploration and production a bit over 9% of lilu's portfolio is invested in East West Bank Corp a leading financial services company primary early focusing on banking products and services for individuals and businesses one of leelu's most notable Investments is in birkshire halfway which makes up over 16% of his portfolio the Diversified holding company led by Warren Buffett has proven to be a solid long-term investment with a focus on acquiring high quality businesses the second largest position Bank of America accounts for a significant 29% of his portfolio as one of the largest banks in the US it benefits from a broad range of financial services including banking investment and wealth management finally alphabet the parent company of Google holds a dominant share of lilu's portfolio combining both classes of stock they account for over 37% of his portfolio alphabet continues to thrive as a leader in techn technology digital advertising and various innovating Ventures now let's do a quick overview of each of his Holdings the smallest position in leelu's portfolio is in Sable offshore Corp it's a new position and definitely not a standard one originally founded in 2020 the company rebranded in February of 20124 transitioning from a spack to a focused offshore oil and gas company Sable offshore Corp increased its cash and cash equivalence to 288 Million last quarter the company raised $150 million through a private placement of 7.5 million shares and 72.5 million through public warrant exercises during the quarter however there is a big problem as of yet the company hasn't been able to report any Revenue while I am sure that Liu has a solid reason for this investment it's not one I would choose as a value investor EV valuing such a company is too complex for me and I would personally choose to overlook it in the last quarter lelu significantly reduced his position in apple cutting it by more than half and bringing it down to less than 3% of his portfolio Apple's business does not need an introduction so let's go straight to the pros of a company Apple has created a sticky ecosystem between iPhones iPads Macs and subscription Services creating a strong consumer loyalty which ensures steady Revenue additionally over the past decade Apple's Revenue grew by 95% but its earnings per share increased by 227 which means that they're able to manage finances exceptionally well driving significant profitability also Apple continues to reward its shareholders with 12 consecutive years of dividend growth and billions spent on share BuyBacks finally even without strong Revenue growth Apple's great cash flow allows the company to make strategic financial investments that help to create shareholder value for concerns apple is no longer seeing the high growth rates of over 20% now reporting sub 10% grow grow this slowdown is expected as such huge companies like apple face challenges sustaining rapid expansion at such a massive scale but what concerns me the most is the fact that Apple's stock price is high with a PE ratio of 40 and a forward PE ratio of 34 in my opinion this makes it expensive relative to its future growth projections so to sum up while Apple remains is a strong company their growth has slowed down significantly and because of that I do not think they should be trading at a premium multiple which makes the company overpriced and could be the reason why lelu is trimming his position with a 3% allocation leelu's third position is in accidental petroleum the company is a major energy player primarily focused on oil and gas exploration production and Innovative carbon capture technology the company is planning strong and diversified growth their Crown Rock acquisition is expected to add a billion dollars in annual free cash flow at current oil prices also they're planning over 1 billion of additional cash flow from various non oil initiatives by the year 2027 birkshire halfway led by Warren Buffett has consistently increased its stake in ox ental it has invested 12.5 billion totaling more than 28% of accidentals outstanding shares Buffett's average cost basis is around $53 per share while the stock currently trades at around 50 signaling possible undervaluation finally ocidental is investing heavily into carbon capture and storage technology including constructing the world's largest direct air capture fac facility they believe this technology could eventually rival their oil and gas Revenue while all of these things sound really promising there are some potential concerns with accidental as well their earnings and cash flow are really sensitive to crude oil price fluctuations for example in its latest quarter oil prices caused its pre-tax income from oil and gas to draw by $400 million at additionally although ocidental plans to retire 3.7 million in debt by the year 2026 its current debt levels still present a risk especially if cash flow becomes constrained finally oil stocks face criticism and regulations due to their environmental impact while ocidental is investing into carbon capture and storage technology to address this these efforts are still in early stages and carry execution risks the technology remains speculative and unproven on scale because of that returns from the segment may take years to materialize in conclusion looking at all of these facts ocidental is definitely an interesting company with a lot of potential in my opinion it's definitely worth to have a deeper look into this position eastwest Bank Corp is a California based Commercial Bank that takes up around 9% of leelu's portfolio the bank has an efficiency ratio of 34% significantly better than the banking industry's average of 65 this indicates that East West has a superior cost management and value generation Additionally the stock trades at a forward p ratio of 11.5 and a Price to Book value of 1.7 which is below or at par with beers despite Superior profitability and efficiency metrics when it comes to concerns a 63% increase in interest expenses caused net income to decline by 10% in the first half of 2024 even despite growth in interest and non-interest income also 70% of the commercial real estate loan portfolio is concentrated in California a state that has one of the highest unemployment rates this adds exposure to Regional economic risks in conclusion while East West seems to have an edge to its peers I am not too fond of banking stocks and I can't say I would want to make this investment myself ran by the legendary investor Warren Buffett birkshire halfway is the crown jewel of value investing a company that has demonstrated the power power of discipline long-term compounding for decades takes up over 16% of leelu's portfolio it would require an entire video to fully review this vast Empire but here are the highlights why this company stands out to me Burkshire has many strengths that make it a unique and reliable investment such as strong earnings growth and a really well Diversified portfolio which naturally means low risk but there are two key Pros that stand out to me first of all birkshire currently holds an impressive 300 billion in cash much of which is invested in treasuries this cash pile offers incredible flexibility it can be deployed during a market downturn to acquire High return assets at a bargain price additionally over the past two decades berkshire's earnings have grown at an average annual rate of 99% this steady growth demonstrates the company's ability to generate consistent long-term returns a Hallmark for Buffett's value investing philosophy when it comes to potential concerns one commonly discussed issue is Buffett's age at 93 some wonder about the company's future leadership however I don't see this as a significant problem birkshire has a strong team surrounding Buffet all deeply rooted in value investing philosophy ensuring the company remains in capable hands despite that there is one key issue I see with a company at a trillion dooll market cap they're currently trading at around 23p when the historical average is around 15 which means that if the multiple would compress to its historical average or even lower the valuation could easily follow to sum up birkar is a reliable long-term investment suitable for conservative portfolios while returns may not match its past highs its low risk and compounding potential make it a solid choice for Value investors in my opinion at this point it would be a better investment than the S&P 500 Bank of America one of the largest financial institutions in the world takes up almost 30% of leelu's portfolio the company has consistently demonstrated its ability to adapt to an evolving Financial landscape so why Bank of America could be a good investment first of all they have achieved higher average loans climbing deposits and record customer investment asset balances also Bank of America is trading at a price to book ratio of 1.3 the stock remains below its historical Peak suggesting room for further valuation expansion if economic growth continues for concerns at current levels the stock May face headwinds if growth slows or economic conditions worsen potentially limiting upside Additionally the bank set aside 1.3 billion last quarter for potential loan losses a big increase in this amount could mean more borrow ERS are defaulting which could hurt profits finally the growing pressure of fintech companies poses a long-term challenge to traditional banks in summary Bank of America remains a solid choice for investors confident in steady economic growth and the bank's ability to sustain its Competitive Edge however I am not a big fan of banking companies and I can't say I would like to own this company at this point taking the crown alphabet is the largest holding in leelu's portfolio with more than a third of his portfolio the parent company of Google is a global technology leader that does not need an introduction alphabet's latest quarter Revenue increased by 15% year-over-year indicating strong business performance Additionally the company's investments in AI cloud computing and other Ventures provide multiple growth Avenues also alphabet's strong cash flows enable continued investments in Innovation for further growth adding to that Google maintains a dominant position in Search and online advertising contributing significantly to alphabet's revenue finally while their PE ratio is relatively high at around 25 it is still discounted compared to other established Tech giants like meta at 28 Microsoft at 35 and Apple at 40 for concerns alphabet faces increasing regulatory challenges related to Anti-Trust concerns data privacy and market dominance also despite diversification efforts a large portion of alphabet's Revenue still comes from advertising making it vulnerable to add Market downt turns finally growing competition from Microsoft and Amazon on cloud services and AI tools like Chachi PT for search pose significant threats to sum up I personally own the stock at a much lower valuation than its current price and I still like it however while I believe alphabet should outperform the market in the near future I would prefer to see its valuation drop a bit further to add more in concl inclusion leelu's Himalaya Capital Management has a highly concentrated well diversed portfolio spanning across multiple different sectors the portfolio reveals a preference for quality and stability with Selective adjustments that demonstrate a disciplined value investing approach in a dynamic Market environment so after analyzing all of these stocks it's time to reveal which position I would add to my portfolio at its current price basically it was a strong competition between three stocks alphabet Berkshire halfway and accidental Petroleum in my opinion both alphabet and birkshire halfway should outperform the market in the upcoming future however the stock I picked and like the most was accidental petroleum its Diversified portfolio and strategic Investments for additional income truly captured my attention but what do you think do you agree with me comment down below which lelu stock would you pick if you enjoyed the video consider subscribing and clicking the like button as it does help to grow my channel and as always guys thank you for watching and I hope to see you in the next one bye
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