저자: Kevin · 외국인
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리테일 항복(capitulation) 지표는 2022년 1월 말 이후 하락 추세이며 리테일이 매도하지 않고 있다고 주장. 기관/알고리즘 매도와 연준 긴축 우려로 경기침체 가능성을 경계하며, S&P500은 최대 24~29 수준까지 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 7월 28일 발표 데이터가 경기침체 여부를 가를 것으로 봄. 소비자신뢰지수 95.7(예상 97) 하회, 신규주택판매 연율 59만 호(예상 65.5만) 부진, 주택 중간가 하락으로 부동산 위기 시작 주장. 본인은 주식 80~85% 투자, 무마진 상태.
다듬은 글
hey everyone kevin here in this video we've got to talk about consumer capitulation updates and what the heck happened today with the data what is it scary for let's get right into that we do have a two messages though number one the comments down below will be off because they're cancerous they're toxic and i can't handle it anymore so it's either i'm not making videos or i have no comments at least for the time being i hope to bring it back in the future i'm sorry about it i can't take it anymore next i'm only going to do one pitch and it's going to be right now the coupon code expires on the 28th you all know that for hat's it no other pitch this video okay let's move on so first uh one of the big things that we've really been talking about uh has been retail capitulation and it's time for an update on this because we're going to get an update on the consumer as well retail capitulation is really really interesting how it works because it comes in these these massive spikes and it's usually representative of the bottom of the market what you're going to see is a indicator i'm going to put up a chart up and what i want you to look for is when there's this this bright purple line that goes way to the top that's a sign of per day retail capitulation which is measured by out of the entire market what percentage of stocks did retail sell versus institutions and when the per day line goes way up especially above the 60 percent line that's a sign of capitulation when the 10-day moving average goes above 60 percent it's also a sign of retail capitulation and a potential bottom of the market now why do we know that's true and why am i pre-explaining the graph because it's very complicated when you first see it but now that you have this you'll understand but why is this so important because the dates of retail capitulation watch this folks december of 2018 the bottom of the freaking market when the fed freaking u-turned march of 2020 baby and another time retail capitulated was actually a time i said this is absolutely ridiculous we should all be using this as a phenomenal by the dip opportunity which was absolutely true was the november elections the november 2020 elections that's quite remarkable that we actually had seen in this chart retail capitulation levels at those levels and so looking back we're like okay yeah those are great points when was the recent highest point that we've had in retail capitulation so those were all around uh over 60 we'll look at the chart in a moment but the recent high was about the end of january which is also when i happen to say that's it we've got to sit this market out for a while which is kind of interesting to see but what's also very very interesting to see is where we are trending now from that capitulation point so let's pull this chart up here look what we got here this is the chart again i told you it was going to be a little complicated i'm going to walk you through this one so the first thing i want you to see is right here see these green circles right here these are capitulation points of over 60 which is that red dotted line there right uh here you go you've got a couple of peaks you have the highest 10-day moving average right here in recent capitulation and then right here at the end of january you get a spike and we do have another spike over here in a march that's relatively similar but what i want you to pay attention to now is that moving average which is the blue line and look at what we've really done first of all we've consolidated into this lower section over here right we could see that coming out of the last two years of of fud and uncertainty and madness look at the trend here the trend has actually been that retail is not selling like when you draw these trend lines it's like damn retail's getting it like this is the time of our lives and okay now that sounds like yeah it's like some kind of motivational video coming up you know somebody needs to start playing some music like uh the ex or whatever but anyway uh this is the time for us to build our portfolios and it is a gift that we have pain in the markets and i think retail is getting it and it also shows that right now even if we just look in over here it's really institutional selling in fact when you see the market open and you see the market do this it goes over and then all of a sudden it does that it's because the algos are out selling since they're selling and playing bets and placing bets because of the fed because we're worried that oh the fed's going to have to move from basically fighting inflation to the markets like crap while the fed's fighting inflation we're going to see them push us into a recession that's going to be problem because if we go into a recession what does that mean for us folks what means problems because take a look at this you remember this maybe you've seen this chart before maybe you haven't the first time i brought this up was probably about 40 days ago so the green arrow is where i first brought this up which probably means we are closer right now to over here somewhere right right kind of there where the red line is which i'm just gonna get rid of for a moment here you know what we'll make it this sort of red section there that i've left uh and the problem with this section is it tells us that if we take all bear markets going back to 1929 that if we end up being in a recession we have two more bottoms ahead those two bottoms right here on the right are what we still have to look forward to and those are percentage declines in the s p which would suggest that the s p could go down to anywhere between 24 to 29 which we haven't seen yet year today right in fact let's just look really quick for giggles because it you know every day changes right so you just type it's uh spy stock and we're only down 17.91 uh year to date on the s p 500.
so it really suggests that if this is 24 this is 29 we still have potential pain to go if we're heading into a recession and now we've got this fear that the fed's pushing us into an artificial recession or like a technical recession when the consumer's still strong and we've never really had a recession where the unemployment rate was going up usually when you're in a recession like in a recession a declared recession the unemployment rate's going up like that's not happening right now the unemployment rate's down people we're still seeing job gains it's crazy so this chart is definitely one to be concerned about if we don't have a recession the gray line which on thursday on the 28th very special day july 28th we are going to see whether we're in a recession or not and i think it's really going to be a dictator as to are we going to follow that gray line are we going to follow the black line obviously fingers crossed i hope it's the gray line i am mostly in the market i've made many many many videos on this both publicly and uh with course members but i think i've been very clear i'm mostly in the market here i'm you know i was a buyer today i'm 80 to 85 percent in uh i have no margin at all which i'm very glad about i've converted some of my real estate uh to to stocks as well and uh i paid all my taxes so i'm really really in a position where i'm ready for this market to rip you know but i'm willing to be patient okay good so what's the data that came in this morning that's a little bit concerning well the data that came in this morning was another consumer confidence miss which it's so weird because it's kind of like i i almost feel like the way they measure consumer confidence is they go up to people who are sitting at restaurants or who are partying and traveling going hey man how you doing i'm great dog and then they're like well how do you feel about the economy and spending man it's like all right we're putting you down as a negative like that's just kind of what it feels like people are doing right now like people were having a good time people were mostly happy which is a great thing so consumer confidence numbers though this morning came in at 95.7 versus the expectations of 97 so yet another miss here but beyond that annualized and i hate that they're doing this but because annualized means multiplied by 12 right annualized home sales plummeted versus expectations we were expecting 655 000 new home sales new construction home sales for the year an annualized sort of rate we actually came in an annualized rate of 590.
that's a 10 it's an over 10 miss and get this folks we saw prices go from 444k to a median price of 402 000 that means the real estate crisis is starting telling you folks you you know i'm a big fan of getting ready by real estate and that's what i'm doing i'm looking to plop as much money into stocks as i can right now and have no debts so that way when the stock market rips whether that's what i think the second half of this year closer to the end of the year the better uh and then it's real estate by time i'm actually using stock money that i've gained to go buy more real estate now if i'm wrong and the stock market crashes more then i guess i'm buying less real estate but that's called placing a bet so we've got a few other charts to talk about and then we're done all right so this is important s p's decline driven by price to earnings so far hold on actually first i have to show off does anybody uh you know i would say comment down below but you'll have to hit me up on discord by going to medkevin.com chat does anybody actually use like these little things for espresso they're so convenient and clearly i need to have some more delicious actually no espresso is disgusting and i don't put any sugar in it i don't know why i punished myself but then after that i have the little orangina things the little gummies they're so freaking good i don't have the bag near me but anyway okay so smps decline driven by a price to earnings so far so this is an interesting chart so you see the blue line here is a percent return due to margin expansion and the black box is a percent return due to earnings growth in 2022 year to date for stocks in total and because we've seen compression in uh in earnings basically because multiples have kind of contracted or at least the multiples we're assigning to earnings which are compressed by by margins simply put the the point of this chart is just to say that most of the s ps 500 decline has been the result of uh right here multiple compression and margins go getting squeezed by inflation and multiple compression whereas we've actually had positive s p growth because of earnings growth and so when you combine these two things you get that total net like what negative 18-ish percent year-to-date for the s p 500 but this chart according to bloomberg is suggesting that they believe that most of the negativity that we've seen so far has been margin and multiple compression and that's a problem because if this black box ends up becoming negative then that black box has to add to the blue box like a lego and then you end up going to you know negative 24 negative 30 percent here today while we're in a recession and boom you've got your explanation as to why you're down another 10 on the s p 500 meanwhile of course retail buyers don't give an f now this is a neat one this just shows you of the s p 500 which is the blue squiggly line and then retail buying net retail buying into leveraged etfs and it really shows you that even though there are a lot of people usually in the comments writing stuff like oh i'm making so much money off of my triple qqq uh or and then other people that's usually on green days you get that and on red days people are like oh i'm making so much money of my sqq it's like the comments always come out to prove themselves right but whatever i think it's really really interesting that uh retail had the lowest inflows right here around june 22nd a little bit about the third week of may and roughly around the second and a half to third week of july i don't know what it is with that time in the month like right around the 20th of every month that sees the lowest inflows into these these funds but the one that really corresponded with the s p bottom was over here in june which is around where gas prices peaked but beyond that i can't really tell a difference between buyers going in uh you know via this over here and this over here i mean this is probably a little bit more consistent and thick over in march so it's become a little maybe sparser but i mean there's some interesting points where people go shopping uh who knows we can talk about it in a discord remember metkevin.com chat that's totally free it's not a pitch or anything retail positioning here you go you've got uh well this is z z-score okay i don't really want to explain that right now so instead what we're gonna do is i i'm going to a park have a wonderful day bye
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