저자: 미상 · 외국인
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미 연준 발언과 SVB 등 은행 위기 이후 신용경색이 경기침체를 앞당길 수 있다는 진단. 골드만·모건스탠리·BofA 추정치를 인용해 GDP 감소 0.1~0.4%p 전망. 5월 FOMC 전 동결 가능성(62%)과 이번 주 PCE·미시간대 기대인플레 등 주요 지표 일정을 소개. 파월이 피벗 신호를 시사했으나 시장 금리인하 기대는 과도하다는 취지. 후반부는 생명보험 광고.
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let's take a listen to what the Federal Reserve I just had to say on CBS faced the nation and then what we're going to do is we're going to look at some world and Global reactions to what's going on in the financial markets especially what's going on with China where's all that inflation that we were supposed to be getting from China some other impacts we've got really great piece that we're going to go through right after we listen to Neil kashgari on CBS so let's take a listen here add some commentary as a helpful here we go in New York with these failed Banks doesn't Exist Elsewhere in the country the banking system is resilient and it's sound the banking system has a strong Capital position and a lot of liquidity and has the full support of the Federal Reserve and other Regulators standing behind it now I'm not saying that all of the stresses are behind us I expect this process will take some time but fundamentally the banking system is sound this process what do you mean by that well when when tensions flare up in the banking system and stresses emerge uh we often hope that they'll be resolved very very quickly sometimes it takes longer for all the stresses to work their way out of the system so we know that there are other banks that have some uh exposure to long-dated treasury bonds who have some duration risk as they call it on their books we also know that commercial real estate there are a lot of commercial real estate assets in the banking sector and there are some losses that will probably work its way through the banking sector so that process will take time to fully become clear but fundamentally the banking system has a lot of capital to be able to withstand those pressures one of the things I think is so great is that as treasury eels have actually plummeted over the last a few uh days here uh through the banking crisis the value of bonds that banks are holding has actually gone up so you're actually by having a banking crisis you're creating less risk of the furtherance of the banking crisis and you mentioned commercial real estate because so many of these mid-sized banks are lenders in that space so that could impact Construction in other words this could have a real impact on the economy does it tip us towards recession well it definitely brings us closer right now what's unclear for us is how much of these banking stresses are leading to a widespread credit Crunch and then that credit crunch you're right just as you said would then slow down the economy this is something we are monitoring very very closely now on one hand such strains could then bring down inflation so we have to do less work with the federal funds rate to bring the economy into balance but right now it's unclear how much of an imprint these banking stresses are going to have on the economy you know what I think is so remarkable is that back in January of 21 we looked at history and history gave us this remarkable outline it said look if inflation is high force a recession and inflation will go away when people actually internalize that we're in a recession what do they do they spend less money and so either the velocity of money goes down the total spending goes down total GDP goes down whatever it takes forcing a recession is a fantastic way well I shouldn't say it's a fantastic way because it's somewhat painful but it is a way to solve inflation that's because you're what you're really doing is you're reducing demand now there's the other argument that you could just accommodate Supply more but that's much more difficult the FED can't really do much to affect Supply Congress can but who really thinks they can actually pull something off here so far all they've been doing is pulling off stemi checks for chips and EVs and Energy Products which hey fine with me because I've got a bunch of stock in this but it's something to watch very carefully and that's what we're focused on and chairman Powell said as much this past week at the Federal Reserve that that tightening and credit might be doing your work for you in terms of slowing down the economy does that mean it would make Neil Kashkari hit the break on rate hikes at your next meeting well we have to see you know right now the stresses are only a couple weeks old there are some concerning signs the positive sign is uh deposit outflows seem to have slowed down uh some confidence is being restored among smaller and Regional Banks uh at the same time we've seen the capital markets have largely been closed for the past two weeks if those Capital markets remain closed because borrowers and lenders remain nervous then that would tell me okay this is probably going to have a bigger imprint on the economy so it's too soon to make a new forecasts about the next interest rate meeting that we have the next fomc yeah and I'll tell you we're going to go through some reports here in a moment on what some of the reactions have been to this banking crisis in terms of tightening lending standards and spoiler alert it's not seemingly to be that big of a deal but we'll talk about it with some reports in a moment meeting but these are the factors that I'm going to be most focused on you know when it comes to confidence among Americans in the system right now CBS News just recently did a poll and only 15 percent of people pulled by us said they had a lot of confidence in the federal reserve's ability to manage these banking issues why should the public trust the FED now when this risk to Banks was missed out in San Francisco in New York and when the Fed was late to the game on catching up with inflation you know the covet pan pandemic has thrown some curveballs at us that none of us have experience in any of our lifetimes and it has taken us time to catch up and figure out exactly where the economy is headed the interest rate risk that brought down Silicon Valley Bank is something that we've all been very focused on we've been communicating it to Banks all across the country for the last couple years that interest rates are going up and most banks have done a much better job of managing their risks in advance of those interest rates going up and so there's still uncertainty in the economy there are still stresses you have a group of people at the Federal Reserve who are totally committed to our mandates to committed to achieving the public service responsibilities that we have and we're going to continue to let the data and the evidence guide us and that is the best reassurance that I can give is that a lot a group of people are non-partisan focused on doing their very best on behalf of the American economy and American households you know what's interesting is that you actually have an incentive as a bank not to hedge your Cur your uh interest rate risk because when you hedge your interest rate risk you have to take an expense when you take an expense it makes your earnings per share look lower which makes it look like you're not performing as well as a CEO of the company well the reality is you're actually protecting the company but if instead of taking an expense on hedging risk you could just take your losses and your your basically your bags and hide them under hell to maturity Securities then you don't have to book a dime of losses oopsie-doopsies that's exactly why you get some of this uh drama unfolding uh at uh base like Silicon Valley Bank because people are scratching their ads going why why did you not book any kind of Hedge events oh well because that would make your income and expenses look less profitable and you were incentivized via stock options or bonuses or whatever to have the most profitable p l so maybe there's some accounting reform that some folks are now calling for because the the incentives are very skewed for banks but we're about to see the first hearing on Capitol Hill this week about what just happened but there were flashing warning site warning signs out there at svb bank the Silicon Valley Bank in the months leading up to its failure on this program just earlier today Senator Warner of Virginia who's on the Banking Committee said The Regulators missed basic banking 101 the interest rate mismatch how could that risk have been so missed by The Regulators at the Federal Reserve in Washington and in San Francisco well I don't know any specifics about the svb case because they're not regulated by the Minneapolis fed and I know Vice chair bar is conducting a rigorous review to understand exactly what happened it has been publicly reported that the Federal Reserve did take action specific to svb to get them to address these exposures I don't know more than that and I'm looking forward to Michael Barr's review and his findings which we're all going to take very seriously I can tell you at the Minneapolis fed we have conversations with our bank supervisors and then with the banks about these risks all the time doesn't mean that we're not going to make mistakes doesn't mean that we are perfect but I know across the Federal Reserve that bank supervisors have been focused on these very exposures since before the interest rate increases even began last year well just on this program last week Senator Warren says she doesn't have confidence in Mary Daly the San Francisco fed president do you I do I know Mary Daley exceptionally well I've worked closely with her for the last several years she's an outstanding public servant committed to helping all of us fulfill our mission for the public nonetheless we have to look at the findings that Vice chair bar comes out with take those findings very seriously all right we're going to back off that and get into uh some of the uh impacts that banks are expecting and analysts and financial markets are expecting you know kashgari doesn't go on to say much more after that so one of the first things that I'd like to understand is how much do we actually think this banking crisis is really going to hit the economy uh and uh and that's a big deal especially looking at sort of GDP hey what what do we think in terms of GDP uh and so there are a few different analyzes Morgan Stanley provides one Morgan Stanley suggests that credit shocks will take a toll on the economy but it will take time to figure out how large those effects could be however in their estimates we think that this pullback in Bank lending which was already underway we were already seeing tightening and lending standards this pullback could end up shaving off about 10 basis points from GDP that's a belief from Morgan Stanley however these effects could end up taking a lot longer to play out they actually think the largest impacts could be felt around Q4 of 2023 and q1 of 24.
this kind of leads to this idea that maybe we have to be more patient with when we actually think the impacts of all of this hiking and the credit squeeze will actually come patience is probably the biggest thing that I've learned in this cycle especially I think we we all had this memory out of covid or even how quickly uh bailouts were instituted in 2009 we had this more recent memory of quick actions from The Fad quick actions uh you know you had the September crisis in 2008 by February of 2009 the Fed was running the money printer right in in 2018 as soon as there was a slight sign of Market stress the FED turns around runs the money printer covet pandemic it wasn't even a matter of a few months it was a matter of a few weeks before they started writing the Monday printer so this this idea of of the the fed you turning is taking a lot longer and because of the inflation that we're seeing now which hopefully ends up proving to be dare I say the word transitory but take a look at Goldman here Goldman also gives a projection a little bit further out Goldman suggests that we could see a tighter credit reduced GDP by around four tenths of a percent that's about four times as much of the impact that Morgan Stanley thinks uh but you could kind of make sort of a range here and suggest that it looks like analysts are thinking somewhere between 0.1 to about 0.4 to the negative on GDP is what we might expect from tightness here as a result results of these banking failures but anyway they suggest that we're probably looking at seeing this this hit somewhere around the fourth quarter so again another analysis where maybe that hit just doesn't come as quickly as we think uh and uh and it's unclear obviously how much that hit will be Bank of America talks about uh funding risks uh as well a little bit of that credit Suite squeeze uh they do talk about some of the stabilization that we're seeing in in banking since then but also Bank of America thinking somewhere around a 25 basis point hit to GDP when it comes to credit tightening so when you combine all three of these Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs Bank of America clearly the hit to GDP is probably going to be somewhere between 0.1 to about 0.4 now what's crazy about that is if we actually look at the summary of economic projections that the FED just gave us they just lowered their forecasts for GDP uh from 0.5 to 0.4 now the fascinating part about that kind of hit is taking us to 0.4 if we end up getting hit with a 0.4 reduction like Goldman Sachs estimates but well then oopsie doopsie you might be right there at zero or even slightly negative and that's where that recession is so recession time are still looking like Q3 to q1 in that range this certainly does as Neil keshkari said it push us closer to that and you can see when you look at the data fed thinks we're at a 0.4 GDP is how we end the year Morgan Stanley Bank of America Goldman altogether think we're gonna have a hit of somewhere between 0.1 to 0.4 percent recession could we be flat hey taking flat is actually okay in a weird way if you're flat and non-negative you're not in a recessionary environment so that'll be quite fascinating to see play out uh but uh look I think they're they're this is leading a lot of people to call for the Fed to pause by May that's the next time we actually see from or hear from the uh fed and so we can look at right monitors to see what expectations are now but no going into May these are where estimates estimates are likely to be quite uh fluid for a while for example you've got a one Economist suggesting hey uh this is this is let me see where did I write his name I just have his citation over here I wanted to reference him by name I lost this citation anyway while I look for it he's talking about how important it is for the FED to actually pause uh here it is it's uni credit an analyst over at Uni credit says the FED should definitely Pause by May to make sure we have plenty of time to play out uh the implications of this credit tightening from the banking sector now if we look at the Fed rate monitor it looks like we have a 38 likelihood of getting another 25 BP hike and a 62 percent likelihood of a pause right now which a pausing right now would somewhat align with what Jerome Powell hinted in the last press conference where they had even started to talk about the idea of a pause it's the first time Jerome Powell has ever mentioned a pause in this tightening cycle and that was talked about at the last meeting it was talked about at the last press conference and it's actually now more priced into markets than not obviously markets are pricing in cuts by the end of the year of around 100 basis points the FED says we're not pricing in any of those sorts of cuts and that's likely because if the FED starts talking about Cuts then people might start spending stocks might start taking off Financial conditions might loosen and they could basically hurt the status quo where we are now in other words if the status quo stays stable right now everything stays status quo right now everything stays stable then potentially inflation goes away but if the FED says we're going to the Moon boys girls that could have the opposite effect and actually re-ager re-aggravate uh inflation so I think those are some of the concerns that Federal Reserve is playing with right now to someone manipulate potentially what's happening in markets now we do have catalysts that we want to pay attention to this week as well there are quite a few specifically the fed's preferred inflation Gauge pce before I talk about the fed's preferred inflation gauge it's worth noting we do have earnings coming up this week as well Carnival Cruise Lines this morning Walgreens tomorrow morning with LoveSac Dave and Buster shift Lulu after the Bell tomorrow uh that's Tuesday Restoration Hardware Wednesday after the bell and on Thursday we'll get blackberry and canoe we do have quite a few data points coming out as well let's take a look at Barclays they give us a nice little sum up here of the various different catalysts that we're going to be looking for so today we'll have uh fed Governor Jefferson a new fomc voter discussing monetary policy at an event at 5 PM Eastern that's after the market closes we'll have wholesale inventories coming out on Tuesday you can see the projections right here the forecast is for a growth of inventories of one tenth of one percent Advanced trade these are tomorrow's catalysts here fhfa Federal housing Administration over here numbers we'll get those tomorrow okay Schiller 20 City index for housing prices expected to actually come in at negative a 0.6 year over year so your first slight negative on the s p k Shiller here starting to get that year over year lapping uh keep in mind even the treasury yields have followed mortgage yields mortgage rates have been pretty stable mostly because spreads risk spreads have widened on mortgages probably because banks are dumping mbs's to try to increase their liquidity positions anyway pending home sales Wednesday Thursday we'll get a real GDP uh the expectation is about 2.6 percent for GDP we'll get initial jobless claims looking at looking for 195.
Barkin will speak at an event on Thursday at 12 45 at the same time as Collins a non-voter will give a speech so we'll get a voter and non-voter on Thursday it's a little bit of fed speak here and then here's the important set and this is Friday we'll be covering this live when the data comes out but we're getting we'll be getting the personal consumption expenditures read on inflation that read is expected to come in at 0.3 percent uh that is the Barclays forecast the consensus though is point four percent and the the latest report was actually 0.6 so we'll hopefully see some softening over here on PC uh the closer comes into Barclays at point three the better point three good point four starts getting a little bit bad 0.5.6 not great remember if you multiply these numbers by 12 you'll actually get your annualized figure so if we get uh 0.3 we'll be sitting at somewhere around 3.6 pce inflation which is much closer to two than obviously if you annualize 0.6 which comes in at 7.2 uh you'll also be getting a core pce also looking to match at about 0.3 uh consensus though on Wall Street is 0.4 University of Michigan estimates uh for inflation I actually think I have the forecasts and the consensus for that let me see here that would be Friday Friday Friday Friday Friday Friday Friday Friday want to make sure they stay anchored very important they stay anchored we do not want any kind of runaway of inflation expectations and the forecast for the 31st is uh one year inflation expectations three point eight percent that's stable with the prior read as the forecast is 2.8 stable with the prior read for the one year out or sorry that's the five to ten year inflation expectation so we could fill these in right here uh actually uh the forecast matches the latest here which is three eight and uh two eight uh for their forecast and consensus here so uh then we'll have uh some more feds speak as well look at all this fed speak we get this week I mean a lot of different fed speak again let's just highlight the FED speak here so you've got fed speak at 5 pm today uh fed Governor Jefferson fomc voter new guy we've got uh bar an fomc voter here testifying before the house Financial Services committee on Friday this should actually be really interesting because Barr is doing the investigation into the banking drama so we'll be able to get some banking updates over here Williams uh at uh 3 P.M on Friday the market will still be open then right at close we'll get a Waller uh speaking at a conference and then cook uh speaking uh after the close on Friday as well for more of a dinner event so this gives you a little bit of an update on sort of where the fed's head is obviously the fed's head is likely to be in wait and see mode we don't actually get another fed Catalyst until the May event which is May 3rd now interestingly that'll be right between uh two CPI releases so you're going to get the March data on April 12th so mark your calendar for April 12th and then the next CPI release won't be until May 10th which will actually be about a week after the next fed press conference then you're going to get the uh jobs data at the beginning of may as well and the beginning of April here coming again so mark your calendar for April 7th for the next jobs data and then the next jobs that after that doesn't come out until May 5th which is again after the next fomc uh press conference on May 3rd now that's interesting that means the next CPI on April 12th and the next jobs report on April 7th will actually be the only New pieces of data we get uh the larger two pieces of data there'll be a lot of miscellaneous reports but in terms of CPI and jobs those will be the only two reports we get before the May fomc meeting which means the next jobs and the next CPI report will actually be on the 7th and 12th will be pretty important for trying to predict what the FED is going to do come May 2nd so pay attention to that as a catalyst so with that update on the Federal Reserve it is worth reminding you to check out life insurance that you can get in as little as five minutes via the link down below uh that is sponsored uh argument here is Zang hey if you don't have life insurance yet you should consider getting it tell your family hey I signed up for life insurance you Apple paid android pay for it I bet you you could do it before you're done going to the bathroom thank you you even if you drink a lot of coffee you could probably sign up for it before you're even done going number one it's pretty fast metcaven.com life or check out the link down below okie dokie next
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