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마이클 버리가 S&P500과 나스닥에 대한 풋옵션(약 15억 달러 명목가치)을 보유한 것으로 보이며, 이는 지수가 과거 고점을 돌파하지 못하고 저점 재테스트 가능성이 있다는 거시적 약세 베팅으로 해석된다. [버리의 대규모 풋옵션 포지션] 2분기 보유 현황 기준 S&P500(SPY)과 나스닥(QQQ)에 각 200만 주 상당의 풋옵션을 보유, 명목가치 약 15억 달러. 프리미엄 기준 실제 투입금은 약 7,500만~3억 달러로 추정. 지수가 작년 저점 수준까지 20~30% 하락하면 수억 달러 수익 가능. [버리의 과거 패턴과 비교] 2005년 7월 서브프라임 CDS에 7.5억 달러를 걸었던 사례와 유사한 규모의 베팅이라고 설명. 당시처럼 시점은 빗나갈 수 있으나 방향성은 맞춘다는 평가. [버리의 주식 포트폴리오 성향] 미국 주식 포트폴리오는 약 5,000만~1억 달러 수준으로 비교적 작음. 잉여현금흐름(FCF) 대비 저평가된 종목을 선호하며 익스피디아, CBS, 차터커뮤니케이션즈, 맥케슨 등이 예시로 언급됨. 맥케슨은 영상 제작자가 과거 구독자에게 추천했고 이후 약 100% 상승. [거시 근거: 금리와 현금 수익률] 현금 수익률이 약 4.8~5%로 올라 주식 대비 매력이 커짐. 버리는 소비자 대차대조표가 예상보다 견고하지만 고금리의 지연 효과(12~24개월)가 경기에 타격을 줄 것으로 본다. 2008년 금융위기 때 모기지 금리 리셋 시점을 주목했던 방식과 같은 접근이라고 설명. [지수 밸류에이션과 시장 전망] S&P500은 선행 이익 대비 약 20배, 나스닥은 약 30배 수준. 스탠리 드러켄밀러도 향후 10년간 시장이 제자리걸음할 수 있다고 언급. 현재 지수는 7~8월 고점 부근에서 소폭 상승한 상태. [영상 제작자의 투자 접근 및 리스크] 제작자는 버리의 거시 우려에 동의하지만 시기 맞추기는 하지 않겠다고 밝힘. 현금을 보유하며 연 15~30% 기대수익률을 충족하는 종목만 매수. 잉여현금흐름이 크거나 자사주 매입 여력이 큰 기업을 선호. 버리의 매매 빈도와 과거 보수적 판단(테슬라 공매도 청산 등)에 대한 비판도 언급. [결론 및 주의점] 버리 포지션은 시기 판단에 따라 손실 가능성이 크며 영상은 투자 권유가 아닌 분석임. 제작자는 시장이 작년 저점을 재테스트할 가능성이 있다는 데 어느 정도 공감.
다듬은 글
Michael burry the investor who crushed it during the great financial crisis as well as the.com implosion revealed that he now has a new Big Short he was previously played by Christian Bale and in this looking at his Holdings for the second quarter he now has put options on the S P 500 as well as the NASDAQ via QQQ representing 2 million shares each that he is short the notional value of these put options that he owns is 1.5 billion dollars so let me give you a little bit of context he's very unlikely to be putting up dollar for dollar exposure here given that it's put options it's probably closer to 10 cents on the dollar or 20 cents on the dollar so he's probably putting up somewhere between let's say 75 million dollars and 300 million dollars to get some sort of exposure of you know 1.5 billion dollars against the market roughly split half and half more concentrated with the S P 500 versus the nasda stack but if you were to have let's say the markets retest their lows from last year going back you know 20 30 percent you'd be looking at a huge windfall for Michael burry and his investors to the tune of several hundred million dollars on this investment that he's making this these put options that he's buying and you know for context his stock portfolio in the last few quarters hasn't been that significant you know ranging from 50 to 100 million dollars this does have some limitations because you know it could just be seeing his U.S Holdings you know he does he has alluded to buying cheaper foreign stocks but you also get the impression that Michael burry has been very cautious and not looking to deploy lots of capital that said in this video we're going to talk about some of his latest stock purchases you know going through an overview of you know what's been going on with his portfolio Beyond this new Big Short also talk about why is he doing this short in the first place if you enjoy educational investment videos please make so let's dive into understanding you know what else is going on here because in July of 2005 when he was amassing his massive short position on subprime credit default swaps so subprime mortgages credit default swaps on this in July 2005 it was only a 750 Million Dollar Bet at the time so this is clearly in the same realm of new Big Short territory so this is not you know a small bet this is a very big bet by Michael burry uh and looking at his stock portfolio he has been buying a lot of individual stocks now you might say well that's weird you know like why would you have this big short but then also buy all these positions the reality is he's always had this mentality of finding things that traded dirt cheap valuations things that trade that may look funny that may you know have a weird multiple to reported earnings but have tremendous free cash flow and when you look at his portfolio like Expedia that's a perfect example you know that's a company whose price to earnings multiple looks way higher than their actual free cash flow you know looking on a free cash flow basis it trades at a single digit multiple to free cash flow same thing with companies like CBS Charter Communications is a company you know that's very stable you know cable company trading at a low teens free cash flow multiple so this is the exact type of Playbook you know he's he he sticks to which is he likes finding these stocks that trade at really low multiples to free cash flow where they can then buy back a ton of stock they can you know the stock can easily re-rate as they re repurchase 10 20 of their shares in a very short time period as a matter of fact I just did a video on how monish pabra is buying a stock you know trading around three times free cash flow so very similar deep value sort of Playbook but you know even though he loves turning over rocks and finding those things he also has a macro lens in which he looks at you know what's going on with the investment environment and I think that overrides what he's willing to do and so even if his total stock portfolio is around 100 million dollars U.S portfolio is around 100 million dollars he's still having a huge outsized hedge based on macro concerns that we're going to talk about in just a second and so why is my Michael burry doing this in the first place I mean why would he put on such a huge hedge l as well so let's understand you know where Michael burry has been some of the things he said you know in March of this year when you're looking at the banking implosion you know he calls out 2000 the.com implosion 2008 the great financial crisis as well as the Regional Bank you know explosion with Silicon Valley Bank earlier this year it's always the same people full of hubris and greed take stupid risks and fail money is then printed because it works so well and he's responding to the fact that the Federal Reserve quickly came to the rescue when you had a couple of banks imploding earlier this year but I think broadly you know what he considers and he's he's called us out before in his notes and his you know blog back when he was running it closer to 2000.
you know he he not only has a deep value framework but he's also looking at Price action and I think you know this is this is the S P 500 over the last three years spy and I think you know what happened at its peak was just sheer Mania you know you had monkey pictures trading for millions of dollars you had funny money to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars from the Federal Reserve you had records amounts of deficit spending and stimulus from the government driving crazy valuations and then you look at what's going on here and he's saying to himself just thinking about the psychology of what is the price action saying and I think you know in his short let's say his 1.5 billion dollar short is probably around here because it's at the end of June and since then you know we're now in August so it's it's up slightly since then I think what he's saying is we're not going to go past the highs that we previously saw the previously frothy highs and that fits with what some of the other super investors have said like Stanley druckenmiller where he said look I I think we're in for possibly a decade of the market going no where now it'll go nowhere in a very interesting way like we've seen so far this year you know the Market's ripping significantly but it's also keep mine not making new highs so you could just tread water Beyond this very unpleasant roller coaster where you think oh this is great and then before you know it you're retesting the low so I think that's what he's looking at saying there's no way we're making a new bull market with new highs especially when you're looking at the fundamentals and one of the fundamentals that you know he looks at is what's going on with relative interest rates for example now cash I personally keep my cash at interactive brokers yielding close to five percent four point eight percent so he he this is something he absolutely looks at you know for example when he was looking at you know what was going on with the great financial crisis he was looking at the time frame in which the mortgages would reset and people would have to pay these adjustable rate mortgages would then have to pay going from the teaser rate that was close to two percent or close to zero percent in some cases to seven eight percent in some cases and he said okay this is going to start hitting and so that's why he enjoy July 2005 he was like okay I'm going to make this 750 Million Dollar Bet and I think it even got bigger you know as time went on so I he's clearly looking at the macro in terms of what are the different components and I think he's looked at the balance sheet for consumers and he said the balance sheet for consumers has done significantly better than a lot of people expected I think even better than he expected at first because the balance sheet was so flush from stimulus from the government and I think he's looking at this and the impact from higher interest rates from cash now yielding closer to five percent is that there's a lag effect it takes time just like he saw the interest rate increases during the great financial crisis and said okay there's going to be trouble you know sometime in this quarter he ultimately was early just like I think he you know was calling out you know to sell with this market and he also called out look I was wrong to sell to say sell to say that um so I you know clearly the timing trying to exactly time the market not something Michael Berry can do getting it exactly right but I think directionally he's getting the the broad forces correct Which is higher interest rates will have an impact on the economy sometimes there's a lag and that's where a lot of people get thrown off because it might be a 12 18 24 month lag between this huge increase in interest rates and when you start actually seeing the impact on the economy so I think he's saying there's no way you're going to have a multi-year new bull market that passes the previous really frothy Peaks when you have this environment of higher interest rates now I think it is important to also recognize look I think he's a cautious guy you know he he's always looking for looking around the corners looking at you know what can blow up calling that out I mean hence even the Twitter profile Cassandra so I think it's important to recognize they're just different investors out there and you don't have to try to clone you don't have to try to do exactly what he's doing personally you know what I've what I've personally benefited from Michael burry looking at his Holdings is I love to see you know what what are some of the free low multiples to free cash flow that he's buying and to see could I want to own it myself and one example is a company called McKesson and I called it out for my subscribers this was over a year ago I saw that he owned it I had previously done some work on McKesson and some of their competitors and saw that they were trading at like nine times three cash flow then I see Michael burries buying and I go okay I want to refresh my notes and so he buys and sells he he's he's a Trader you know in terms of oh by you know this low free cash flow and then it's up 50 and I'm out you don't have to do that you have to figure out what's right for you you know I personally prefer to find things that I can sit and hold for for years and years and years you know I still own a little bit of McKesson stock it's up something like 100 um you know since Michael burry started buying it and he would Michael Berry would have been better off sitting and holding it you know because you know it continued to appreciate so I think you every investor needs to figure out you know their own path for me personally it's looking at Michael Barry to say okay well what have you found to be cheap is it still cheap is it something that is palatable with my own personal investment journey I am overlaying his concerns with the macro which I think are legit you know I think that there are real reasons to be concerned like I I think you know when you see Michael burry and Stanley druckenmiller talk about you know effectively a market not going anywhere for years and that's what he's betting on here with his 1.5 billion dollar bet uh against the indices you know he's he that's effectively saying it wouldn't surprise me if you retouch the lows from last year and you know wait a second we're looking at the S P 500 trading around 20 times plus earnings NASDAQ closer to 30 times you know is that really compelling when once again cash is yielding closer to five percent it is a very different world than it used to be I mean we were in a decade plus of close to zero interest rates we're in a new world now with real interest rates and so I I don't think that's really appropriately priced with some of these Equity markets so I I do agree you know to an extent with Michael burry on that I'm not trying to time in the market or anything like that but for me personally I play this in a couple of different ways one of which is I want businesses that either have a lot of free cash flow or can buy back lots of stock and that is very appealing to me because if you have this broader macro concern and you say hey I think the market could go nowhere for years or potentially a lot of downside risk you know in that scenario you want the type of business that has the free cash flow has the capacity to buy back lots of stocks that way your your percentage of the pie you're part of the pie is getting bigger even in tough times even when things are rough you'd say oh well that's great you're rooting for the stock to go lower because the company's just going to buy back more shares so that is something I'm I'm definitely considering another aspect is that you know with five percent you know four point eight percent interactive the cash see the link below you know it's means that I'm less compelled to go like oh I need to buy something right now I'm just going to wait for things to sell off or wait for when I find prices that are really compelled telling and then I buy and so for me that personally means setting a strict hurtle rate where I can say oh this is something where I can comfortably pencil out let's say 15 to 30 percent annualized potential returns over time and that's you know and look every investor is different and every investor is different based on where they are in their Journey their individual you know bank accounts like you look at Warren Buffett you know he previously was doing 30 hurdle rates clearly and now you know managing 150 billion in cash on his balance sheet of Berkshire you know his hurdle rates probably closer to 10 or 12 percent and so every every investor needs to figure out what's right for them for me personally you know when I have my last slug of cash I'm going to say hey I'm just going to keep raising that whole hurdle rate until it's just really compelling return so I'm gonna sit on cash and I'm gonna you know get paid to wait you know until it's just like oh I I can't afford not to put it into the market just because you know the potential compounding rate is 20 30 from here over five years so you're talking about hundreds of percent upside so those are the different you know aspects to consider I'd absolutely welcome your feedback and thoughts a lot of people don't like Michael burry because he trades you know he buys and sells you know a lot of people don't like it because he's had this conservative you know calls in the past you know at one point he was you know dogging on Tesla and then he got out of that short position as well personally I view him as an exceptional analyst who gets you know borderline very cautious at times and can be too cautious but I do like to see what he's calling out his perspective and it wouldn't surprise me if he's right on this it wouldn't surprise me if you do see the market retouch the lows from last year and that's clearly some something that he's betting on 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