저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
경기침체는 짧고 얕을 것이라는 컨센서스를 반박하며, 인플레이션이 5~6%에서 끈적하게 머물러 연준·ECB가 금리를 더 올리거나 금리인하를 미루는 과정에서 경기 경착륙과 금융위기가 동시에 올 것이라고 주장한다. 원자재 가격은 설비투자 부족으로 상승하고, 선진국 노동시장은 타이트해 임금이 상승하며, 서비스 중심 경제라 인건비 기반 인플레이션이 쉽게 잡히지 않는다는 논리다. 부채 증가(선진국 GDP 대비 1970년대 100%→420%)로 금리 인상은 경제·금융 붕괴를 낳고, 연준이 중도에 물러서면 인플레이션 기대가 탈anchor되어 스태그플레이션으로 이어진다는 딜레마를 제시한다. 증시에 대해서는 시장이 연준의 금리 경로를 과소평가해 금리인하를 기대하고 있어 괴리가 크며, 금융여건 완화가 연준의 긴축을 방해한다고 본다. 심한 경착륙이 오면 주식시장이 크게 하락하고, 연준이 물러서더라도 반등 후 6개월 정도 늦춰진 증시 폭락이 온다는 전망이다. 결론적으로 연준의 조기 정책 전환이나 증시 강세 시나리오에 강하게 회의적이다. 이 영상은 2023년 1월 다보스 포럼 인터뷰로, 발언 시점 이후 실제 전개와 비교해 평가해야 한다.
다듬은 글
Dr Doom is how he's known although at our all-market Summit last fall he told us he prefers Dr realist I'm talking of course of NYU professor and Economist noriel rabini we talked to him today about some of the themes being discussed here at Davos what has been dubbed the poly crisis going on right now all of the things in the world going wrong climate crisis the Russian invasion of Ukraine Etc his book is called Mega threats which is basically a different word for the same thing listen now to our conversation with noriel rabini I've been speaking about Mega threats not just economic monetary Financial also political geopolitical environmental health technological deglobalization and now this buzzword of polycris is the same idea as Mega threat is one that everybody's using you know I was on the stage with the head of the IMF last month in Washington and she spoke about the Confluence of calamities saying that the world economies never faced so much threats since World War II Larry Summers made the same kind of arguments and the wife just published their world global crisis reporting which is again is talking about severe threats and about poly crisis and there are all these interconnected threats that are both on the economic side political geopolitical social environmental health technological and so on so I think it's becoming something of a common wisdom and the topic of the web this year is cooperation in a fragmented world the emphasis on the fragmented because there is not much cooperation in the world in which there are geopolitical depression and great powers are rival with each other on most things so it's a world of Mega threats or polycrisis and it doesn't matter how you call it it's all disturbing is this the same idea uh you know barge part because that fragmentation or real there's a lot of uh CEOs here predicting a mild recession do you think they will be surprised by the severity of any recession we do get if we do get one yes the consensus is about the short and shallow recession a couple of quarter negative growth and then you have a collapse of price of wage inflation the fatty should be another stop hiking by mid-year then they cut rates but the second half and then Mark is an economy grow again I'm skeptical for many reasons result number one is that the rear spike in commodity prices this year Not Just Energy but also all across the board other ones Goldman Sachs actually predicts a 42 increase in commodity prices this year and the reason is that it's been a massive under investment in new capacity not only in all the natural gas but across the board the man is growing gradually with China coming back to growth there will be more demand supplies constrained you'll have a spike second reason is that labor markets all over in advance economies are very tight unemployment rate is very low labor force participation rate has fallen aging of populations restriction to migrations the great resignation labor Strife fiscal policy or pro-labor so you don't need more than five six percent wage growth like in U.S we produced one percent to have unit labor costs going up five percent and therefore inflation getting stuck around five it's easy to go from 10 to 5 is much harder to go from five to two and in the service sector is dominating the economy is mostly labor costs rather than raw material and so on so my view markets and fed ECB will be surprised on the upside on how much while inflation has fallen now it's gonna remain sticky around five six percent and then they'll have it very tough dilemma either the raise rates more say towards six percent for the FED about four for the ECB and they cause a real hard landing and on the top of the Heartland there is also a financial crash stock market credit spreads bond yields and so on so you have economic financial crash so a real hard Landing they feed on each other as you have more distress you'll have more of a recession and more recession means more distress on the debt side or as I believe they're gonna wimp out they're gonna blink they're not gonna raise enough but then you have a d anchoring of inflation inflation expectation you get a wage price spiral and then you adapt again with stagflation you postpone that cries by a couple of years so damn if you're doing them if you don't I think the optimism is is really misplaced or do you think the the FED would be to blame here they're on why in this massive liquidity here raising rates they have raised rates aggressively the US housing market is slowing down aren't they the ones to blame for a potential massive recession in the U.S well inflation got after the control in part because there was a loose monetary credit a fiscal policy so the FED has to be blamed like other central banks for not saying the rise of inflation secondly there were also negative Supply shocks that reduce growth and increase inflation like the impact of a covet on production on Global Supply chains or labor Supply the impact of Russia Ukraine on global commodity prices and of course until recently the zero covet policy of China so it's a combination of bad policy and bad luck now they have to make up for it but the problem is that is the reason rates enough the causing economic and financial crash and in my view we are in a dead trap there is so much private and public debt in the world rising from 100 of GDP to 420 in advance economies since the 70s that you cause not only an economic crash but also a financial crisis that feeds on each other therefore they have to impound and therefore we're going to live in a world of much higher inflation around five six as opposed to two that's where we're going let's talk a little bit more about that potential Financial grasp we talked to you back in the fall at our all Market Summit and you talked about some of the same themes now here we are in the new year and most of the strategists at least in the United States are looking for a little bit of a gain in markets this year it doesn't from what you're describing that doesn't sound like that's a scenario that you would be predicting how bad is it going to be this year in equity markets well if you believe in the softish landing scenario of a short and shallow recession with a couple of quarters of negative growth say q1 and Q2 then the market is a bit wobbly but by the time that there is a slack in goods and labor market because of that recession if a drop in price and wage inflation then the FED doesn't go all the way to 525 stays around 475 and then the cut rate's already in the second half of the year and then you have a happy endings for growth and for the markets in the second half of the year that's assuming that actually the markets are right first of all the FED is still in the market no way even if we are optimist stick inflation is going to be slightly harder than you expect we're not going to have a real recession we have a soft Landing therefore we have to go all the way to 525 stay on hold until the end of the year and then cut rates next year so there's already a massive disconnect between markers and effect and the market is being aired of the curve makes the problem the fat worse because the easing of financial condition with stock market going higher bond yields falling the dollar weakening credit sped narrowing implies more growth and makes harder for the federal achieve their inflation and they have to tighten actually more be given this tug of war within Marcus and effect what I'm saying is that both the fed and the market will be surprised on how sticky inflation is going to be once it gets around five six ish and then either they do much more causing economic and financial crash and in which case the equity Market is going to be really sharply down because in a severe heart Landing from current level like with the price are left to fall another day 20 or the wimp out if they win part then the market is going to Rally there'll be about power will put for a little while but then once you have a arranging of inflation expectation longer it's rise and then you still get down the line a crash of the stock market you just postpone it by six months
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