저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 달러 기반 부채 체계가 흔들리며 인플레이션과 스태그플레이션 환경으로 전환되고 있다고 봐 소프트랜딩은 현실적이지 않다고 주장한다. [통화·부채 체계] 부채를 갚는 방식은 경화(hard money)로 갚아 디플레이션·공황을 겪거나, 연화(soft money)로 갚아 화폐를 찍어내는 방식이 있으며 역사상 후자가 반복됐다고 설명한다. 달러의 기축통화 지위에 대해서는 중국 위안화, 인도·러시아 간 직접 결제 등 대안 통화가 늘고 있어 변화가 불가피하다고 본다. 암호화폐, 금, 디지털 화폐 등이 경쟁 통화로 떠오를 수 있다고 언급한다. 모든 통화는 부채이므로 다른 자산 대비 통화 가치가 하락할 가능성이 크다고 본다. [인플레이션 전망] 현재 인플레이션 우려는 8~10점(10점 만점) 수준이라고 답한다. 채권 매도가 인플레이션을 더 부추기고, 임금 협상 등 자기강화적 패러다임 전환이 시작됐다고 본다. [금리·연준] 연준이 올해 7회 금리 인상을 하더라도 기준금리 2% 수준이며, 인플레이션율(약 7%, 향후 5% 안팎)보다 낮아 여전히 실질 마이너스 금리라고 지적한다. 인플레이션을 잡기 위한 충분한 긴축은 주식·경제에 과도한 압박이 되어 연준이 1년 뒤 매우 어려운 위치에 놓일 것이라고 예측한다. [시장·자산] 금리 상승은 장기 듀레이션 자산인 기술주 등 위험자산을 불리하게 만든다. 채권펀드와 현금 보유자는 실질 손실을 보고 있다고 언급한다. [수익률 곡선] 역전된 수익률 곡선을 경기침체 예측 지표로 과도하게 쓰는 것은 아니라고 보며, 현금·채권·주식 간 기대수익률 관계가 더 중요하다고 강조한다. [분배·정치] 부의 격차와 기회 격차를 줄이는 재분배가 생산성과 내부 갈등 완화에 중요하다고 본다. 좌우 포퓰리즘 양극화로 2024년 선거 결과를 양측이 수용하지 않을 가능성도 경고한다. [출연자 전망] 향후 1년 내외 스태그플레이션 환경이 가장 가능성 높다고 보며, 균형 잡힌 포트폴리오 구성이 필요하다고 조언한다.
다듬은 글
can the u.s be successful over the next let's say decade given where inflation levels are today and given how much debt this country is in fact sitting on well um there's two ways of dealing with debt you pay it back in hard money or you pay it back in soft money you pay it back in hard money and you have um a problem um you have a depression so throughout history uh whenever that was done paid back in hard money eventually um that was abandoned and you uh print money that was what 71 was that was what march 1933 was and so um i think that what you have to think about is the value of money how much money does one have in debt instruments and um do you want to own that as an asset i i think i think they're bad assets and so uh and then how do you diversify and the system also has to deal with um what is money what is money is uh is the dollar going to remain um the same sort of reserve currency and then you see the development of alternative monies we're seeing uh variety i think different types of money will compete with each other in the environment we're in um some maybe it's um crypto maybe it's uh maybe it's gold maybe it's um other things uh maybe the digital or mmb competes with um the us dollar we're going to come into an environment because everybody thinks that there's think about how much money is being stored in debt instruments those debt assets think about how poor those returns are so that kind of a shift i think is very important can the the dollar stay the world's reserve currency when we are running in when inflation is at this high current level and likely to remain this way for for some time uh so all currencies have a lot of debt and so when you look at one relative to the other there will be a lot of printing i mean currency equals debt and when you hold a currency you're holding a debt instrument and so all of those will um decline in value relative to other things now will the dollar decline more than other currencies it's almost certain that we're going to come into this environment we're in this environment and whereas there's a shifting of the those currencies um so you're going to see more of china's ram and b being used you're seeing india have a direct link with russia on the uh currency so we're an important change in the currency but how that is a store of wealth is a different question so uh a currency is a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth and its storehold of wealth is now a problem particularly for the dollar but it's also a problem for other countries so that's why you have inflation as money goes into other things and and the cost of borrowing is so low relative to the inflation rate then it courage encourages the borrowing of money and and the sale of money in other words not holding financial assets like that so that's yes i think you're changing the nature of what money is and what the dollar is as a storehold of wealth on a scale of one to ten and this is the only way i think i can maybe ask this one but on the scale of one to ten how concerned are you about inflation right now oh i'm uh i'm i don't know like uh uh an 8 to 10 or something like that um um we're beginning a paradigm shift uh a paradigm shift um is a shift from um a mindset one mindset and positioning of that mindset to another mindset and another positioning of that um so for example the mindset that we were in was that where you have low inflation and um when you're owning bonds and you're owning cash or um you are operating one way um and you don't worry about that and companies don't worry about it in their inventories or having larger inventories or homeowners don't worry about inflation as much in the purchases of the houses and so on once that shift begins it causes a reinforcing dynamic it's like everybody is long bonds we've been in a 40-year bull market in bonds and so it's been fine to have and when that shift starts to take place you see behavioral shifts that reinforce that cycle in the paradigm so for example when there is the selling of bonds that it makes it more inflationary in and of itself because the amount of debt that has to be sold is not just the deficit but also the amount of debt that's being sold is those bonds so now interest rates have to rise a lot or the federal reserve has got to come in there and buy more and then you get wages people make wage settlements that um and such things so a paradigm shift is beginning to take place and that will be also self-reinforcing and it's taking place in this context of the conflict which then creates the breakdown of efficient systems each country wants to be self-sufficient it needs to to protect itself and in being self-sufficient in that way then you have less efficiencies in the system and all of that becomes self-reinforcing so um it's all happened before it's all happened many many times before that's covered both in the video and and the book so it's um yeah i'm concerned about that you're obviously a student of of history of all kinds uh when you hear folks project that the federal reserve might raise interest rates seven times this year and given where inflation is is what the federal reserve likely to do on rates this year push countries uh from success into failure not just the u.s but even emerging markets yeah it's um it's funny because you know everybody says um okay uh there'll be seven increases or something like that and that sounds like a lot uh but you're taking interest rates up to something like two percent and that two percent um which starts to squeeze the capital market so it starts to make it more difficult for uh a holder of equities because the equity when when you raise the return on bonds and your derivative return on cash and you tighten money then that makes um other assets less attractive such as risky assets particularly long-duration assets like tech stocks and the like uh so you produce that's that squeeze yes but that's still only at two percent or a little bit over two percent with an inflation rate which is considerably higher than that we've had a seven percent inflation rate and we'll probably settle um it'll be a five percent issue or something and so you're still losing that money to inflation people are so what you have is and um enough tightening by the federal reserve to deal with inflation adequately is too much tightening for the markets and uh the economy so the fed is going to be in a very difficult place a year from now as inflation still remains high and it starts to pinch on both the markets and the economy what what can they do can they do anything you know it's like here's the problem um if you're borrowing more money than you're lending and you have a lot of debt you either are going to pay back in hard money or in soft money and so it creates a very difficult trade-off um so what can you do do you spend less money um so that the trade-off becomes more and more difficult and that's what is brings about a stagflation environment because they tried to navigate between those two undesirables in other words they want to contain inflation but too high of an interest rate that's good enough for inflation causes too much economic environment so what can they do no they're in a position already because of that dynamic spending more than they're earning creation of a lot more debt and a lot of other debt which one man's debts are another man's assets and that as the holder of that assets is losing money imagine holding a bond now and look at how much money is in bond funds and cash okay not only um in cash you don't get any return to compensate for the interest rate and in your bond fund you get negative returns and how's that feel so are you going to continue to hold those bonds in that bond fund it's a it's a dynamic that they have to deal with that is really beyond their capacity to deal with it they can't change those fundamentals so it's the soft landing just pie in the sky stuff um when you say soft landing i i i i i there's no going to be yeah i don't it's pie in the sky stuff um i think that most likely what we're have going to have is a period of stagflation and then you have to understand how to build a portfolio that's balanced for that kind of an environment where uh are you know the topic du jour today or right now is this inverted yield curve does that are we making too much as that being a predictor to future recessions um not not too much no um it changes there's a there's a whole um relationship between cash bond yields and equity returns so every investment is in exchange of a lump sum payment for a future cash flow and so the cost of money is a consideration based up relative to the return on money and so when we look at that return when we say i can hold cash or i can hold a bond that changes the inclination to hold cash but also one has to look at the return on expect a return on equities in other words one calculates the present value of future cash flows you estimate one are those earnings going to be in the future and what are they worth today and so bond stocks are now having expected returns which are not very much more than bonds which would be not very much more than cash so as that happens so that why should i own equities uh farther out you know and have the volatility of equities so that shift in the curve in other words the relationship between cash bonds and then the relationship between bonds and equities and the relationship for corporations between the rates at which they borrow at and the rates of that which they can earn money at have a pervasive effect on the economy and the markets so no it's important to take a look at that relationship that yield curve structure that way but um you should go beyond that and include the returns of other assets what can you do in the way of generating returns relative to the costs of uh money the relative attractiveness of those instruments last one i know you're a very uh busy guy um and i want to leave people thinking uh you know a little more about this tying back to your your posting on youtube does redistribution of wealth is that does that help solve inflation does it help keep countries moving from success to failure um you have to um you have to have an economy in which the people believe you that you have a fair system and you have to have productivity so i would say the most important thing is the redistribution of opportunity to make people productive and to eliminate um the internal conflict or to reduce the internal conflict which can be so disruptive when you see large wealth gaps and at the same time you see economic problems you have a lot of internal conflict and that internal conflict is bad economically and it's bad socially so yes i think it but it's not just the wealth gap it is the productivity level that results so um yeah the wealth gap is a problem the opportunity gap is a problem the productivity that um allows and productivity to be measured in what you earn relative to what you spend so yes all of that um that gap isn't is an issue and it's certainly going to be a political issue so when we talk about markets and the economy and all of these things we have to realize for example that um there's an great internal politics populism of the left and populism of the right and the polarity is becoming greater it's entirely possible that neither side accepts losing the uh 2024 elections in other words that we lose um though that well the democracy in a sense you could um find ourselves in a situation where the rules no longer apply because of that type of internal conflict internal conflict will have a big effect we'll leave it there i i know it's very rare to get uh this a much this much amount of time with you we greatly appreciate you coming back on yahoo finance ray dalio always good to see you stay safe we'll talk to you soon thank you you
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