I was Wrong. We're F*cked.

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과거 약세 베팅 후 상승 기대가 빗나가 손실을 봤으나, 금리 역전·투자가능 현금 최저·선거 전 변동성 등을 근거로 향후 시장 하락(나스닥 400~435 가능성)을 전망. 소형주(IWM) 투자는 최악의 선택이라 경고하고, 현금 확보·부채 축소 등 방어를 권유함.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I effed up big ble H I think I'll just start with um where this all started so uh back on July 11th uh we started noticing that the market was uh peeking out uh in fact we had uh multiple hourlong uh sometimes even 90 minute long uh course member live streams and we're like this is weird what's going on you could see it right here July 11th that was the day the NASDAQ was down 2% and we were at the top of the market mind you NASDAQ just hit like 505 so we do a course member Liv stream we're like this is weird if this trend continues it it's going to make sense to go bearish and right around this time I'm like maybe like a 5 and 1 half to like a seven on the bull bear scale we're like okay like we're a little T here but we're more bullish than we're bearish you know 10 being very bullish but we're not going to go to margin going to take it easy you know maybe the upside is another 10% in the market or whatever and then we noticed you know we we we got a little more bearish got got some more information over the last few weeks here got a little more bearish and made some money on puts but I had this thesis going into this week that if we got good news the market would resume a rally that we've had a little bit of a 10% correction here and that's it well as long as we have good earnings we will have a rally and so going into this week I had bearish options I was bearish going into this week because of this trend that's been going on since July 11th in fact I think the Nike Swoosh died on July 11th the Nike Swoosh is something that we've been talking about uh since November of 2022 uh in fact I launched a fund uh in November of 22 uh and I thought and I drew this blue line and I said I think we're going straight up there'll be some volatility but I think we're going straight up uh and and now we can see the swoosh there it is when we were here everybody thought I was insane everybody thought no way Kevin we're going to have an inverse Nike Swoosh it's going to be upside down well whatever I launched a fund over here uh and and you know the timing was great this doesn't mean I'm right about everything I do I I screwed up uh you know over the last couple days and I'm going to explain to you why so I'm not trying I'm not here to tell you that I'm right all the time I'm not I'm going to tell you how badly I was wrong in just a moment so my thesis was okay go bearish into July uh July 31st the week of July 31st basically because we've got Powell I don't think he's going to tee up a rate cut and I think uh there's a risk that earnings are bad and things are going to sell off so then what happened jpw tees up a rate cut I'm like oh that's really bullish and earnings coming really good I'm like oh this is fantastic okay then Kevin was wrong then we were wrong to be bearish is what I told myself so I doubted the bearish thesis that we started building July 11th right so Kevin goes bearish July 11th people like you're flip floper I'm like no actually investable cash is at record lows inflation is solved but that's going to lead to bad earnings because Revenue come in lower we're going to be fighting deflation sooner rather than later that could lead to layoffs AI is useful at making things better quality but not profitable which means if we go into a stock market correction capex spending will get slashed and then the chips will really plummet and I also have been saying saying hey like I don't know about this whole like small cap trade because and I've been saying this since July 11th if you go into small caps you're increasing your exposure to things that do horribly in a recession like small caps collapse and go bankrupt in a recession so so then you know we go into this week we get a more bullish Po and a more bullish uh uh uh you know earning set and how do I screw up keep in mind you could watch all my screw-ups I don't guarantee you can make money but you could watch my screw-ups uh or my successes uh in the uh in the courses on building ro we're going to extend the coupon a couple days here uh to Friday just to get like if you you want to witness all my screwing up but you want to hear my long version of these explanations as we find these things out like when we're talking about this stuff on July 11th if you want to be there and you want to see the archive or going forward every day we do these live streams we break down a market thesis here's what we're seeing here maybe where the trades are here's where we could be wrong make sure you're part of those but anyway your boy Kevin uh decided okay well earnings are better than expected Powell's better than expected better than we could have asked for maybe it's time to go bullish on some call option for Friday because we should see a rally this week so in other words we made some money on puts going in took some profits on those and let's make some money on now the flip up right so you had you made money on the correction let's make money on the flip up unfortunately we didn't get a flip up we got a continuation of a flip down and then I lost money where's where's my sound effect oh it's not on right now now I was going to play your boy Kevin just lost lots of Mone which is sad but what matters not is losing money in a trade because basically I bet that I was wrong about being bearish but I was right to be bearish so I didn't listen to myself again and then I lost money which is bad but whatever the point is the real question what matters now is what happens going forward and this is what we spent about an hour and a half on this morning I think it was an hour and a half I'll look uh we spent a lot of time on alyzing what is next and I'm not going to go through everything in detail here uh but I'm going to give you a preview yeah we had a course member live stream this morning uh it's probably one of the one of the more important live streams because we really laid out a thesis in how to play it uh we had over 2,000 Watchers already it just said oh it's only 52 minutes today okay that's fine uh it felt longer but anyway um over 2,000 uh people uh in it already uh and I'm sure more people watch it as well just because I think it's a very important one uh I think you what was a yesterday's live stream course member live stream with 3,400 people uh who watched yesterday's course member live but whatever point is that being wrong happens being wrong bigly all also happens that's part of trading you get big wins Big losses you hope you net up right but the real question now is what happens between now and the election and what we have are valuations still stretchy AI profitability is going to be years away we know that so capex spending could be on the chopping block if there's a market correction you have have uh election pricings like when we price in a an election we generally have increased volatility we generally have a bearish market you have investable cash per BCA research that's at record lows we have not been at these low levels of investable cash investable cash is different than just looking at oh well how much money is available in Money Market funds okay well money available in Market money market funds does not mean all that money is instantaneously available for uh uh you know deploying into the stock market that could be money that's sitting uh at Banks it could be money that's sitting at Mega caps as you know a cash equivalent doesn't mean they're going to buy a stock they could could do BuyBacks from that uh but that's not necessarily the truth uh and and so what appears to be happening is markets are convinced that inflation is no longer an issue and unfortunately now what we're doing is we're starting to play out the the beginning of what happens when the yield curve inverts when the yield curve goes as deep into inversion as it did this time it is always foreshadowed a recession if we don't have a recession by the time of the election I think we can rally but if the market continues to sell down going into the election for the next 3 months uh I think no guarantees personalized advice but I think you'll make a lot of money uh going short or or going long certain uh you know like inverse trades right uh and I realize like you know people oh you're just bearish cuz today's uh you know a red date no I don't really care like the SM like the NASDAQ being down 1.4% who cares what matters is this right here that NASDAQ should we start pricing in a recession we'll easily go to 435 we'll easily go probably past that I I I think easy is 435 likely I think is 400 I I don't know if we're going to get much past 400 but for the good news we got from Powell and the good news we got from earnings to lead to this selloff the market is going riskof and I think while we are three weeks into it and I wish I never doubted my bearish thesis I think it's unfortunately going to get a lot worse now I don't think I want to make uh too many market update videos so this might be my last one in a while and we'll just we'll just stick to uh talking about them in the course member live there are a lot of political things they need to cover there are geopolitical risks going on there's retaliation coming from Iran these could be contributing to a market selloff as well uh but usually geopolitical events are by the dip event uh so I'm just going to put this thesis out here and I'm going to make this Crystal Clear I think the Nike Swoosh has died I think between now and the election the Nike Swoosh is dead almost with certainty again I could be wrong I can't make guarantees but I think the Nike Swoosh is dead with almost certainty between now and the election if we are not in a re recession by the time of the election the Nike Swoosh may come back but if we are in a recession by the time of the election you won't want to buy anything until the Federal Reserve not only Cuts rates to zero but starts infinite money printing again so I'm just going to keep my market commentary and exactly what trades I'm making to position to this uh to my course members I'm going to continue to honor my course members I made them a promise I said listen I made them the following promises I said I will never give up I will be here every day mostly every day sometimes I'm off when I'm traveling but I will be here every day the easiest thing I could do is just give up and disappear and retire that's not me though I will be here every day and I will keep trying I can't promise that I'm going to be right on every trade and some trades I get absolutely hosed on that's just part of trading but I'm going to give you my value every single day I'm going to I'm going to do my best for you uh and uh I I'll always tell you how I feel I'm going to adapt to the market uh and uh unfortunately I think this three-week trend that we've had is just an appetizer of what's coming it's an appetizer uh so I'm I'm I'm not happy um and and I mean that for everything Tesla not happy Bitcoin I'm not happy the worst thing the stupidest trade to get into right now is iwm it's the stupidest thing to do that doesn't mean I don't do stupid things sometimes I do things I'm like why did I do that you know generally the trades you lose lots of money on you're like man what the what are you thinking but a lot of people I would say the vast majority of people who join my courses they join yes they want the trade alerts they want to see what what I'm thinking they don't copy them you should never tra you should never copy me uh you should take the inspiration of what's Kevin seeing as this trend and do I feel do I agree with this look at this I uh put this on Twitter on July 25th and uh I think it will continue to be true what I wrote is uh this was when the iwm was like 225 sorry Tom Lee rotating into small caps just as the recession risks rise is fully I shouldn't have said that word I apologize but I did I did I'm not trying to hide it it's because I think it's a very very bad idea to expose yourself to small caps that have the greatest recession risk there are some that I think are okay like I think ubiquity is a very very strong small cap but I'm biased on that you know i' I'm exposed to that one but uh what I do think people should do is consider increasing cash make more money insulate your job get more skills get more licenses reduce expenses limit debt and be safe out there okay I love you all I I wish you the best I don't want to go into a recession recessions are very very painful and they're very very bad but the Nike Swoosh between now and the election is dead anyway we extended that coupon code until Friday so another you know 48 Hours here if you want to check it out you can be part of those course member live streams play them back on 2x whatever you want I think they're extremely valuable and I wish you the best goodbye and good luck me tt.com