Sectors that could benefit from AI demand: Dan Ives

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AI 수요는 여전히 강하며 하이퍼스케일러와 소버린 AI 투자가 향후 3~4년간 약 1조 달러 규모로 이어질 것으로 전망. 소프트웨어 수익화 가시화가 12월·3월·6월 분기에 걸쳐 나타나고, 연준 금리 인하가 기술주에 우호적이라 나스닥이 3~6개월 내 20,000까지 갈 수 있다고 주장. 애플은 AI 기능(Apple Intelligence)에 따른 아이폰16 슈퍼사이클로 시가총액 4조 달러 가능성을 제시하고, 시장이 판매량 상승을 과소평가한다고 봄.

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01. Dan you just mentioned the fact that you were over in Asia I'm curious what you've learned from a supply chain standpoint and and when you talk about the fact that this is a risk on trade right now and you're confident of techs move higher I'm curious because of that rate cut are there any specific sectors or areas within Tech that you think are poised to benefit the most yeah I mean demands out trip and Supply 15 to1 from a trip perspective it's actually incrementally more bullish than even a few months ago when we were in Asia because of Enterprise demand and look Nvidia gr is the only game in town now but the use cases are exploding that's bullish for hyperscalers you you look at Microsoft Google you know of course Amazon and I think it just shows this is about a trillion dollars of incremental AI cap backs over the next three to four years big Tech's leading it the sovereigns ultimately will get in from a government perspective other Enterprise and that's why I view it this is still 900 p.m in the AI party that goes to 4 a.

02. Dan let me get your take on one big theme that played out this earning season which was big Tech was spending spending spending on AI but investors had some new questions right I mean you did hear that kind of bubbling up where is the actual return on all this AI investment how are you thinking through that Dynamic Dan yeah look Josh you obviously know Tech you know as well as anyone I think we're in between this sort of capx massive tital wave and where you've actually seen the numbers come out where it's going to you're going to see the monetization from a software perspective you've seen in Microsoft seen Oracle seen in paler service now but the second third fourth derivatives all of our checks are showing when we go into December you go into March you go into June and 25 that's where I think numbers come up significantly higher and I think that's where even though it's we've seen some sort of soft spots you know obviously Salesforce a few quarters ago and others I believe this is just air pocket and ultim we're going to see numbers go L higher for software D are there any macroeconomic risks though that you are a bit worried about you're viewing rate Cuts as a bullish move or a bullish sign here for Tech but just more broadly speaking that risk of recession still not going anywhere right some on Wall Street are still worried about that are there any macroeconomic factors that you're closely watching the Bears been worried about recession the last two years why tax just continue to rip higher and they'll come out of hibernation mode here and there over the coming months you got the election of course in terms of some of the risk but it just as we talked about this is a fourth Industrial Revolution and that's not changing it's 25 it was obviously it was 50 bips it's not changing regards who's G to be president this is an unprecedented Tech spending environment fed cutting I believe just makes it more of an autobond in terms of what we're seeing for Tech I'm not saying everyone's going to benefit but in terms of the AI Revolution the winners that that's why I believe over the next you know three to six months we're look at NASDAQ 20,000 Dan well I have you let's switch let's switch gears a bit here talk Apple another name you cover big day on Friday that new iPhone hitting store shelves How should we as investors think about that Dan is this going to be another iPhone super cycle look I I mean this it's a matter of when not if that this is an iPhone 16 super cycle an AI driven one now obviously a lot of you know the Bears talking about pre-orders and trying to you know obviously scared many investors earlier this week Josh in Asia no one was expecting pre-orders to be up massively it's actually in line with expectations this is all about as Apple intelligence rolls out into the December quarter into March that's why I believe this will be the largest Apple iPhone cycle that we've seen I think Market's better digesting it the last few days but we're going to continue sort of navigate I mean the haters will continue to hate on Apple but I believe this is a $4 trillion Mark cap in in what I believ in 2025 so Dan talk to me about the Catalyst that you think this is going to be I guess more specifically here when you take a look at Apple over the next couple of months leading up to this super cycle how much of that has already been priced in in the near term oh I don't think it has I mean I think actually markets underpricing where units go I think units could ultimately be up high single digits potentially double digits Market called 5% in terms of overall growth 300 million and this's most B that 300 million iPhones have an upgrade in four plus years of 1.5 billion iPhones that's setting up for an unpress upgrade cycle and look the AI Revolution now is coming through cook and copertino and I believe 20% of the world over the coming years will access AI through an Apple device and I just think this is one where the street is underestimating what the consumer AI Revolution is going to mean to Apple stock