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테슬라 저가형 Model 3가 홍콩·마카오에 약 26,100달러로 출시되고, 9/3 Cybercab 행사와 라스베이거스 로보택시 5,000대 허가가 촉매로 제시됨. 현재 로보택시는 약 40~85대 수준이라 스케일업 기대가 큼. 머스크의 SpaceX 가스터빈 블레이드·노즐 제조 진출 소식으로 GE Vernova(마진·현금흐름 긍정) 언급, 전반적으로 낙관적 톤이나 터빈은 '관심 분산' 정도로 평가. 테슬라 +4.6%, 347선 지지 언급.
다듬은 글
has been a lot of news about Elon Musk in recent days . Not only is the potential Model 3 at $25 or $26k , but it's not where you think. The Cybercab event will take place on Thursday. We have to discuss this and some of the strange things happening around the event. And also this talk about Elon Musk taking on the production of blades and nozzles as a limiting factor for turbine power or for turbine engines, essentially power plants for data centers.
In other words , let's not rely on the power grid. Let's build our own natural gas facilities, powered by gas turbines, almost like a jet engine for an airplane. And let's just start producing some of the blades and nozzles, because they are the limiting factor. We'll talk about how this could affect Tesla and where the margins are for the company, well, SpaceX.
We'll talk about where the margins are for a company like GE Vernova, for comparison. So, let's try to navigate through all this news related to Elon. And number one: the Model 3 is now expected to sell for $26,000 in China. The Model 3 is now expected to be priced at 205,000 Hong Kong dollars, which translates to about $26,100.
So, unfortunately, not in the United States. It is called the " simplified" Model 3 in Hong Kong and Macau. I mean, I guess you could technically say that Elon almost released a $25,000 car. But on August 31st, which is today, Tesla, well, the news actually came out late yesterday , but it was the 31st their time, announced the release of a more affordable version of the Model 3 in Hong Kong and Macau at a lower price than in mainland China.
So, I guess Hong Kong and Macau are not China. But not America. This strategic move is aimed at capturing a larger market share in these regions. Keep in mind, that's where the competition is right now . Selling cars in the Asian market is very, very competitive, and you see a lot of exports going from Tesla Shanghai to Europe, mainly because BYD is now also competing with European manufacturers there.
Of course, tariffs on Chinese cars are too high for them to make it to America, at least for now. Although there is hope that Chinese companies may start producing more in Mexico. And if we finally reduce some of the cross-border issues between the United States and Mexico based on tariffs under Donald Trump, maybe we'll actually see Chinese cars in America.
With this in mind, people are looking with hope at the possible growth of Tesla sales in Asia. What Tesla would really like to get back to is continued growth in car sales . I think this is the basis of my assessment of the company, and Optimus and FSD are additional opportunities for the future. The key component of the company remains car sales and attracting people to the Tesla ecosystem.
So, when you buy a car, you are more likely to want to buy solar panels and batteries. We're installing Tesla solar panels in what seems like two days, as well as some...no, not Megapacks. You know, the Tesla Powerwall. Megapacks are designed for cities and large infrastructure projects. Powerwall. So we are in foreboding.
Maybe we'll make content or a video about it. But, moving away from the topic of Model 3, it's worth talking about the Tesla Cybercab. So, on Thursday we will have an event dedicated to Cybercab. Cybercab will reportedly present a new, improved future of autopilot and robotaxis at the event. This conveniently coincided with Tesla receiving approval for 5,000 robo-taxis in Clark County, which is Vegas.
This was announced last week. The initial temporary permit allowed Tesla to operate only 10 robo-taxis in Vegas, which is kind of frivolous, with a speed limit of 45 mph and a ban on airport trips. The 10- car limit was lifted, but the airport ban and 45 mph speed limit remained. So these will more likely be local robotaxi trips around downtown Vegas.
But, in my opinion, this is a really big step forward for Tesla. And I think the Tesla Cybercab event may have been intentionally timed to coincide with the announcement of a 5,000- car permit in Vegas. Because Vegas is a tough place for ride-hailing services . This is a city where you can only stop in certain places.
You can't stop anywhere on the street, otherwise traffic slows to a crawl. This happens so often. And taxi drivers are fined for stopping in inappropriate places to pick up passengers. So it's really interesting to see how robo-taxis will be able to operate in Vegas, which I think is much more difficult than Austin.
Now Tesla is hinting that paid rides could start within 30 days, which coincides perfectly with the upcoming Cybercab event. Teslarati posted an invitation for the Cybercab event on September 3rd, and it's great that it's finally happening. So, a lot of people are asking, "What are they going to announce at this event?" Personally, I believe that this is also due to the fact that we are now starting production of these cybercabs.
So perhaps we're moving away from using the Model Y as a robotaxi and focusing on the steering wheel-less, pedal-less cybercab itself. We're actually going to put cybercabs on the roads not just in Vegas, but in Texas, Florida, and other regions where Tesla operates. And maybe we'll finally see the beginning of scaling, because so far it's been pretty weak.
You know, there are between 40 and maybe a maximum of 85 robo-taxis on the roads right now. Official statistics count around 40–42 registrations in Texas. Bloomberg counted 59, including three cities in Texas, as well as a few in Florida. Tesla hints that there could be up to 85 of them now. So, somewhere in that range.
But, of course, this is far from thousands of Tesla robo-taxis on the roads. So there is great hope that the September 3 event, which will take place almost 2 years after the We Robot event, will be the catalyst from which scaling will begin . So I wouldn't be surprised if at this event they say, "Look, we just rolled a cybercab off the production lines." " Now we can officially scale." We have been testing for the past year while robo-taxis have been in operation, and since we declared this a priority 2 years ago, it is time to scale.
So, if I worked at Tesla, this is what I would emphasize , as I believe it would give the stock an even bigger boost than what we are seeing now. And you know, they could use a little support. So, the 4.6% jump falls right at the 347 mark, which Tesla often returns to, and this is a very strong line.
We have been on this line for some time. So we hope this news will provide more permanent support above this line. We'll see. Tesla is currently at a weekly high, up 4.6%, and this was due to the Cybertruck event and the release of the $26,000 Model 3 in Hong Kong and Macau. And, of course, news that is more about SpaceX in the context of turbine production, but usually we see that when SpaceX grows, Tesla grows , and when Tesla grows, SpaceX grows.
They correlate approximately 67% of the time. So, 67 % of the days these stocks move in the same direction. It seems to hint at this being a bit more of an " Elon trade" and how connected these companies are when it comes to trade. But it's useful to know if you're trading. Then, of course, there's the news about turbines, which we'll talk about a little later, but just think about that for a moment.
First, I'll finish my thoughts on Vegas. Waymo and Zoox are already operating in Vegas. Tesla's entry into this space can really and hopefully expand them not only in popularity, because it's a very popular vacation destination where people travel, of course , to Vegas. And it would be a great testing ground for a very busy area with limited pick-up and drop-off locations that are strictly regulated.
And if Tesla can succeed in Vegas, my thesis is that they can probably do it anywhere. So, Cybertruck chief engineer Eric Earley says that hopefully they can reach 2,500 units within a year. That's his goal, although technically they're allowed up to 5,000, he chose a slightly more realistic goal, if I may say so.
So, this is all, of course, pretty exciting news for Tesla. And then we move on to what's going on with this news about Elon Musk's turbines. So, Elon Musk is now, apparently, and according to reports, according to information, there were several pieces about this over the weekend, with some additional information coming in.
But Tesla, sorry, Elon Musk through SpaceX, I'm just talking about them simultaneously. This is so hard. So I'll just mix up the words. But the publication exclusively reported that SpaceX is preparing a base for a turbine blade manufacturing plant to solve the data center energy crisis. Essentially, Elon is saying, "Hey, if we figure out the limiting factor of blade and nozzle production, hopefully we can remove the bottleneck and actually speed up gas turbine production by 18 months, given that blades and nozzles are the slowest part of the process." Keep in mind that there are many sections when it comes to these turbine engines.
You have the uh hot section, which is the slowest and most expensive, and it includes things like compressor disks, housings, uh fuel injectors, you know, aerosolizers. I must have gotten the word wrong, but essentially, they are little um- injectors that inject fuel directly into the combustion chamber of a turbine engine.
Uh-huh, you have rotors, generators, heat recovery, cooling. There's a lot of things there. GE Vernova claims that all of these components are the limiting factor, not just the blades and guide vanes. So, there is a slight difference between them, although to be fair , SpaceX is in the black today on this news, and so is Tesla.
They kind of act together, and both have news here. While GE Vernova fell about 2.4% on this news, Howmet Aerospace, which also makes these components, fell sharply, almost 9% on the news that Elon wants to get involved in solving the problem of the limiting factor of blades and guide devices. So, Elon has talked about this before in several interviews, so it's worth showing a few of these snippets because they're very relevant.
Let's start with the first one. They say the turbines are sold out by 2030 . Have you ever thought about making your own? I think to get enough power, um, I think SpaceX and Tesla are probably going to have to manufacture the turbine blades, um, the guide vanes, and the blades themselves. Just the blades or the turbines themselves?
And the uh, limiting factor is that you can get everything except the blades themselves. What they call blades and guide devices . Um, you can get them uh 12-18 months before you get the guides and blades. So, the limiting factor. In other words, Elon believes that everything else I listed can be obtained fairly quickly.
Again, GE Vernova disagrees. They say everything is running into production capacity constraints. So it's not just about having these components. It's about being able to put it all together, and that's a limitation. So Elon's argument is, "Hey, well, you know, I know this causes a delay." So if I get them, will that help me move up in line?
" It will be seen." factor guiding devices and blades. And there are only uh three foundry uh companies in Jeffrey says four, but it's about the same. in the world that can produce it, and they have huge delays in fulfilling orders. Like, tour- Yes, the delays are really huge. Now, obviously, there are some risk factors here.
Keep in mind, Elon has experience working with SpaceX in building Raptor engines, but Raptor engines are different from turbine engines. So, turbine engines, the whole point of a gas turbine is to provide continuous power for a long time so that you don't have to depend on the local power grid. You're essentially creating your own natural gas facility, almost like a peaking power plant.
The problem is this. Rocket engine vs. gas turbine. So, a rocket engine is not a gas turbine. Rocket engines pump huge volumes of fuel in a matter of minutes. The turbines operate continuously for hours. Gas turbines are aerodynamically extremely complex, very difficult to manufacture, and the turbines, or I should say the turbopump blades, in the Raptor engine are very different from what you would find inside one of those turbines.
So, SpaceX has experience creating rocket engines that run for a few minutes and then stop. You know, the whole goal is, in essence, a pull. And you essentially take it completely apart and put it back together after each launch. Whereas a gas turbine has to operate almost continuously, 8,000 hours per year.
And, you know, the goal is to not have to overhaul them for 25,000 years. So these metals that you're trying to process, or that Elon wants to start processing by building a factory in Texas, are not the easiest things to do well . So yes, Tesla has some experience, and that credit shouldn't be underestimated.
But I don't know how much it will help or how quickly they can get the foundry up and running to cast these blades and vanes. Even the time it tries to buy to get ahead of supply shortages could be offset by the time it would take them to reach industrial scale, which is not a good thing. To be fair , there is indeed a real shortage right now, and that is why companies like GE Vernova have a price advantage.
So , their margins in the power segment, where GE Vernova turbines are located, have increased by about 240 basis points, or 2.4 percentage points, in the last year alone. Their energy segment is doing very well, and they don't say it's because of data centers, but we expect it's because of them, since they mention heavy gas turbines.
They also note that there has been a decline in revenue from offshore wind energy, which is likely due to Trump calling them "whale killers." Actually, that's a topic for another video. But in any case, their gross profit grew by 27.8% overall, and their total revenue grew by 22 %, so they are growing their gross profit faster.
As these turbines provide higher margins for the company, GE Vernova is expected to be able to increase its overall net margin, which could positively impact its valuation. If I go to, for example, the Reinvest stock tab , this is our terminal tool, so... let me log in again . It seems like I always get logged out right in the middle of a video.
It's like, "Grr!" It's okay. But let's move on to GE Vernova, which will go by the ticker symbol GEV. And once we're here, you can see a few things. First, we have a fair value target of around $1,231. This assumes that their margins will continue to grow. Of course, if this is just a cyclical business and the margin expansion is temporary, or competitors appear, then this is a negative factor.
Remember, Elon once called lithium a limiting factor, and then said: "Hey, they're also going to refine lithium at the Lathrop plant." “And they did, but then lithium prices collapsed. So now people are wondering, won't blades and guide vanes become very cheap in a few years, right? So this is worth keeping in mind.
But if we look at the analytics here, we see that GE Vernova's gas generation capacity is growing from 3 GW to 5 GW, and that's, you know, a significant increase. This is over 50% growth. This is a 67% increase in production volumes, which not only increases margins but also brings additional revenue to GE Vernova.
Many are excited about this and see a short-term sell-off in the stock. I don't have any investment in this company, so, you know, I'm not trying to promote it. But people are very excited about how this could affect their margins in the long term, plus what they call integrated solutions and solid-state transformers.
This is actually where you have a call option through 2028 on data centers in Enphase. Enphase is an extremely cheap stock that was simply destroyed by high interest rates. Essentially, it is a game sensitive to interest rates. But it has a built-in option for solid-state transformers, which is worth exploring a bit.
But, be that as it may, if you go to GE Vernova's cash flows , they are actually fantastic. Their balance sheet is not that great, but if you look at the cash flow, with a projected $12 billion in free cash flow, they have about a 5% free cash flow yield. Pretty good. Not bad at all . So, you know, there's money to be made in this turbine business .
And whenever there is money to be made somewhere , Elon tends to seek vertical integration. And he is rarely wrong in his predictions. In fact, back in May 2025, he seemed to have predicted this impending energy wall. To be fair , he is at the cutting edge of AI investment , so it would be surprising if he didn't see these hurdles on the horizon.
But, I mean, when we listen to this, recorded almost a year and a half ago, he's pretty spot on. Let's listen. Yeah, I think, I mean, a few years ago I made a very obvious prediction: the limitation for AI will be chips. Um, and it's still chips, of sorts , today. Then it's going to be electrical, because I wish he would have told us it would be chips, then memory, and then electrical, so we could all invest in memory a little earlier.
You need to reduce the voltage, which can be 300,000 volts, down to 400 volts for a computer. Um, so you need step-down transformers, and there are lots of them, and lots of cables, wires, fuses, and, you know, it's basically a bunch of transformers . And the electrical transformer industry is not used to big changes in demand.
There is currently a shortage of spare parts for transformers. There's literally a shortage of transformers, and then here we go to something that's worth watching just because of the fun of it: a shortage of electrical transformers, and also a shortage of AI transformers, and look where Elon is taking it with that.
Hmm, it's funny that the AI algorithm is called a " transformer." Um, and our robot "Optimus" is named after Optimus Prime, it's a transforming robot. This is too much. So, we have transformers for transformers. Yes. Yes. But this is the same transformer, the one in short supply, which Yes. needed by others.
And when we solve the problem of transformer shortage, there will be a fundamental shortage of electricity generation. And are we there already, or will we be there soon? soon there. My guess is that people will start to experience power generation issues, maybe sometime in the middle or late next year.
Even with This is exactly where we are now, you know, mid to late next year—this is where we are now in time, and also running into an electrical wall. So, Elon was right, and we need to give credit where credit is due. So, if you put all of this together, there are a lot of really exciting things happening in Elon's world.
You have the electricity shortage forecast that maybe everyone guessed, but the point is that he takes the classic vertical integration that he applies at Tesla and SpaceX and extends it to both of his regular businesses. And of course, in the long run, there's a very good chance that these companies will eventually merge.
So, there is a lot of enthusiasm for both. As for the turbines, I personally think it's a bit of a distraction . I think there is a lot more enthusiasm around the potential mass adoption of robotaxi. And I think that's what Thursday will be about—the announcement that robotaxis are now reaching mass adoption.
They will be everywhere. It won't just be Texas, Florida or Vegas anymore. This is just a recent catalyst . Now that we're in production, we can really accelerate. And of course, you know, seeing a cheaper model, a simplified Model 3 in China—hopefully that can also push our delivery numbers. But overall, you know, if you put it all together, it's a lot of news related to Elon, Tesla, and SpaceX, which overall sounds pretty optimistic.
Of course, risks exist at every level. You need to get clean air permits for these turbines, this can take 6 to 9 months. You have a whole other set of turbine components that Elon is not actually going to manufacture in his factory. So you are still dependent to some extent on another production company.
You could get clean air permits quickly in Texas, as they typically only take 6–9 months, whereas in California or New York it would likely take 18–24 months. And overall, we're starting from a very low base and very pessimistic about robotaxi because scaling has been so slow. And, you know, the question of, "Oh, how do we scale if we have to map and inspect every plot?" And now we are limited by geofences.
This is not very good. " Could there be some kind of breakthrough announcement?" These are all things that will be talked about. Another interesting point about the Tesla roaddy post: the invitation itself indicated that only invited individuals could attend the event, and if you bring someone with you, which is allowed, then that person cannot be a content creator.
This, in my opinion, is a very interesting Apple-style way to control the narrative . Although it often happened before that Tesla itself chose its favorite " uber-bulls" among the creators of content about Tesla. They prefer to disseminate news through "uber- bullies" rather than through traditional media.
We already know this. But if you take such an "uber-bull", or just a visitor, guest or investor who invites an influencer who is more critical of Elon or at least adds a little realism, then suddenly Tesla says : "Come to your senses. We didn't want to see them here. They will ask uncomfortable questions.
Is n't that right? And so they are now introducing restrictions: you can bring additional guests, but they don't have to be content creators. They don't specify what exactly they mean. Like, a certain number of followers, whether you look like a content creator, whether you're not allowed to film, or something like that.
But it's an interesting way for Elon to maintain excessive control over releases and events, and it's entirely in the spirit of what Apple does. So it's not really a surprise. You know, Apple does it, so I'm not saying Elon or Tesla are doing it wrong . Hey, they're trying to look their best , so you can't blame them for that .
But I always find it very interesting. So, to sum up: I'm excited about the Cybercab event, excited about these Teslas coming off the assembly line. By the way, there was a photo on X of the Cybercab coming off the production line. We will now bring it to the screen. And I think there was a note about...no, I can't find it now .
Oh, it doesn't matter. Anyway, Cybercab is coming off the production line. This is fascinating. We probably don't expect any updates regarding Optimus. This, this is not such a big problem . So you're starting from a very low base for a robotaxi. The turbine didn't impress me much , it's just another confirmation of vertical integration.
Overall, this is all good news for both companies. This is by no means bad news. .
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