저자: MaPD · 한국인
요약 보기
테슬라가 177 지지 붕괴 후 175·173으로 하락, 165 지지 및 152 하방 가능성 언급. 테슬라 IR 비공개 미팅 후 Gary Black·Adam Jonas 발언과 목표가 하향(345→320)으로 부정적 전망. 반도체 섹터는 공매도 비중 급증 속 기관 매도 가능성을 경계하며 10~15% 조정 가능성 언급. 손절 실행 후 165 부근 재진입 계획.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Ma PD. Tesla Turbine LA. The price broke below 177, dropped to 173, and is currently hovering around 175. I mentioned that the long bullish candle made me feel uneasy and a bit scared, so I did n't view it favorably. However, I did hope, even just a little, that it would hold support at around 177.
But that collapsed as well, and the previous low of 175 has now been broken and it has fallen down to 13. If you look at the candle state, the long bullish candle was larger, so the idea that it "eats" it up is ineffective. Now, following the long hang candle—the key reference candle for this rise—Miseong GSE, there is nothing to rely on right now, so the possibility of further decline seems higher.
I also watched the market continuously yesterday and went to sleep around 1:30 or 2:00. After seeing the price break below 177, I cut my losses when it rebounded slightly. I also sold about 10 million won from my long-term account, and I also sold 10 million won worth of TSLT from my medium-term account.
I cut my losses on everything. The total loss for both amounts to about 3 million won. Also, I sold all of the position I had bought at 17 two days ago, bracing myself for a loss. The stop-loss on this one wasn't that big, but since I averaged down with my existing positions, the price has dropped back down to my previous losses.
Anyway, the total stop-loss came out to about 3.8 million won. My Tesla 2x leverage has now shifted to the 9th position. It is reported that there was a Tesla IR meeting on Tuesday, March 5th. The attendees included Tesla officials, as well as Gary Black—you know Adam Jonas from Modern Stanley. It appears Gary Black brought up this topic.
If you look at the details, he mentioned that while Tesla previously projected 2.1 million units, deliveries are expected to drop to around 2 million. He stated that while the market forecast for Q1 deliveries is 470,000 units, it looks like it will come out to around 420,000, suggesting growth of about 11% from 16.
I think there was some mention of growth during the IR meeting. Now, regarding the reasons for the decline in India, there was the fire at the German Gigafactory, and the previous shutdown of the Hong Kong factory. However, sales are somewhat lower because EV prices in China are continuously dropping.
Loan interest rates are high, and recently, there has been a shift in consumer preference from EVs to hybrids. Therefore, the outlook is quite bad, with the forecast predicting a 17% to 15% drop in the automotive sales profit margin this year. Consequently, growth is slowing; it seems even Tesla management is not expecting growth of more than 10%.
They held a secret meeting, suggesting they are looking at the possibility that the bottom might not be confirmed. Afterwards, Adam Jonas slightly lowered Tesla's price target from the previous $345 to $320, and the stock price fell significantly again just because of that slight reduction. The fact that such comments were made at a meeting attended by Tesla officials is quite concerning, and I think this is why the stock fell sharply on Tuesday as well.
I did n't really want to show you the screen, but it is really not good to have to watch for further declines. I cut my losses as well, but still, compared to the previous high... Since I secured some profit when it went up a little, cutting my losses isn't a huge deal for me. However, I imagine it must be really tough for those who have already cut their losses or are unable to do so right now.
It's hard for me too, so I imagine it must be even harder for you. Still, I'm not exactly a Tesla worshipper. I have a feeling that the market is looking a bit more bearish right now. That's why I mentioned I was scared when that long bearish candle appeared; I told myself it was n't a good sign. So, hoping it would at least hold the 17 level, I braced myself for a loss and went in, but it collapsed without warning.
Now, regarding Tesla, I'm looking at the next support line around 165. This area is touching the bottom of where the trend line is coming down. Also, as I mentioned before, that is the candle with the highest trading volume. The volume was quite large at that time. There was a lot of trading volume.
The upper line of that candle, which matched that volume, is at 183, and the lower line is at 165. So, the lower line is 165 and 183. Therefore, it seems like it will find significant support around 183. I received it, and since Tesla has already collapsed, the current candle is sufficiently encompassed up to around 165.
Furthermore, regarding the possibility of a further drop to 152—the last line it fell to previously—I am looking at that level. Looking solely at the chart from a technical analysis perspective, there is a high possibility of a rebound from 165, but there are many factors to consider, such as the IR secret meeting and overall market turmoil.
You won't see anything if you simply look at the chart alone. It is certainly true that Tesla's buying activity has decreased recently, and interest has dropped as the overall sentiment has shifted largely toward Nvidia. In times like these, I did see a significant possibility of the price rising if Tesla rebounded, but with additional negative news, the secret meeting, and the expectation that next month's focus on Q1 results wo n't be good, the overall outlook is not favorable right now.
Also, 1772 has turned into resistance once again, and 183 feels like it has changed into strong resistance again. Therefore, right now It is difficult to expect it to just keep going straight up like this. From a risk management perspective, I personally think it would be better to slightly increase your position when it rises a bit.
That is why I cut my losses. I currently only hold about 18 million won in TSLT; I have reduced my holdings significantly. There were times when I bought up to 50 or 60 million won, but yesterday I only cut my losses on about 25 million won and sold. Even so, since you never know how the market will change, if you see a candle pattern that changes rapidly, you need to follow it in.
In that case, even if you have to cut your losses, you should enter when you have a reasonable chance. However, I do that when I see meaningful trading volume and a significant candle pattern, but that does n't feel right yet. Additionally, since it has broken the low, it is quite unfavorable. Still, as I mentioned in a previous video, it is not good to just jump in because it is cheap.
If it reaches around 165, I plan to enter a position then, even if it means taking some losses. If it collapses a bit, I should watch for 152 and buy again, as you can see from the Bollinger Mad. Okay, we saw it rise above the midpoint, but due to the sharp drop, it has broken through the lower end of the rebound point.
While it might rebound slightly, there is still a high probability of a decline. The auxiliary indicators aren't even near the sell zone yet; there appears to be a possibility of further decline. There is still some room to maneuver. I will briefly summarize after looking at the semiconductor sector and then continue with Tesla.
Just the other day, the semiconductor sector formed a long bullish candle followed by a Doji, and then a long bearish candle, but it was pulled back up at the last minute. The shape was exactly that of a bearish reversal, but because it was pulled back up at the last minute without breaking the midpoint of the bullish base candle and without breaking the "Sunset Hand" (the resistance), it is showing signs of further upward movement.
However, personally, I still feel it is a bit challenging right now. Even after breaking through the upper recommendation line, it pulls back slightly, but it is moving quite strongly and performing well. The semiconductor sector is very strong. It is showing a tremendous surge due to the news that TSMC is acquiring additional factory certificates in Taiwan.
I also bought and sold AMD AMD It is showing further gains. Actually, a Doji appeared and then a bearish candle hit, so I just sold because it wasn't looking good, but now it looks like it is rebounding again. AMD is quite strong, isn't it? Now, the semiconductor sector is currently battling massive short selling.
Overall, if you look at Tesla and the whole picture, the short selling ratio is at most 50, or maybe 60 at most, so it has decreased significantly. Last night, regarding the semiconductor sector, short selling had been consistently around 50-40% recently, but since the end of last week, it has continuously exceeded 70%—reaching almost 60, 70, 79, 71, and 75.
That is four consecutive days. I have been monitoring short selling overall, and I have rarely seen it continue at over 70% for four consecutive days like this. Despite this, the semiconductor sector is just driving the price up. I checked MBD, and there is n't that much short selling for it. So, based on this, the semiconductor rally has indeed gone quite far, but since it is nearing a peak, it seems institutional forces have some intention of selling off to drag the semiconductor price down.
It is visible, so it might rise a bit more, but it is indeed a somewhat burdensome situation. Personally, I think it is a cautious situation because once the semiconductor market drops, it could fall by another 10% or 15%. Now, regarding the semiconductor triple... Right now, there is a long upper wick, and I see two doze patterns at the high point.
Trading volume has also come in quite heavily. I don't have any intention of selling right now, but I find the current situation a bit unsettling because the market looks a bit dirty. Let me summarize. The semiconductor market is continuously rising, but there is a possibility of a correction. If that happens, it could become a huge negative factor for Tesla.
I wonder if the plan is to induce a sudden panic and then force a rebound. Overall, investors' views on Tesla are not good right now. There isn't much buying interest in Tesla, and short selling is n't coming in much either. It is true that investor sentiment is currently in an extremely bad state, but if market interest in Tesla clearly drops, there might be a possibility of a sudden reversal.
Anyway, it is a cautious and precarious situation. As I mentioned earlier, if there is a slight rebound, the weighting might be too excessive. For those who entered, even if cutting your losses is difficult, you need to sell when necessary. I do view things positively when I can, but right now, it doesn't look good to me.
I am just telling you the facts as they are. Please check the net buying of Korean retail investors in overseas stocks; regarding the Fear Exploration Index, well, there is some greed involved; and please also check the cold weather regarding Tesla's short selling. Now, thank you for your valuable Super Chat, Mr.
Kim Bong-jin. You sent it just the other day, but I failed to introduce you; I apologize. We are going through a tough time right now, so I hope those of you who invested in Tesla can stay strong. I will try to stay strong as well. I would appreciate it if you could subscribe and like. Thank you.
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