저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2018년 연준 금리인상 후 부동산·주식 급락이 있었으나 2019년 경기침체는 현실화되지 않았다. 10월 30일 FOMC에서 연준이 금리를 0.25%p 인하할 것으로 예상되며, 발언 내용(인하 중단/대기/추가인하)이 2020년 시장 방향의 신호가 될 것이라 주장. 본인은 2020년 1~3% 성장을 예상하며 부동산 투자 강의를 홍보.
다듬은 글
the next 72 hours are going to be a massive tell for the United States and global economy for the year 2020 and beyond let's get into talking about that let's go through what has been happening and why I'm especially paying attention to the next 72 hours because they could really make a break our investing strategies moving forward let's get right into ill right everybody let's just start with the good old a whiteboard and here's the scoop leading up to 2018 in 2017 we have a pretty stable you know growing market beginning 2018 Trump tax planets and biases businesses to sell earnings go through the roof and business spending goes nuts things go a little hyper well that hyperness unfortunately got a little bit a whiplash from of the good old a Fed so if you think the Fed has a very little impact into what happens in the marketplace you're wrong the same is true for the government because remember this was caused by the Trump tax plan at least in part pushing up the market pretty substantially at the beginning of 2018 oh and a I really hope to see you there for nd if you'd like to check out the new courses that are currently in presale in the link down below now we haveaching you how to get below market transactions and then we are introducing personal finance and do-it-yourself property management which by the way the management one's going to be collaborative so we've really fun intermission over what does the Fed do after the bubble at the beginning of 2018 Fed jumps in and aggressively pushes up interest rates and says you know what we're bubbling slam on the brakes they hit the brakes so darn hard that our market throughout the end of 2018 pretty much went for a freefall at least in real estate we saw prices in areas throughout the country dropped eight to twelve percent and at the end of the year we saw the stock market drop somewhere around ten to fifteen percent as well now that led to a pretty crappy end of 2018 and here and at the beginning of 2019 a lot of us were expecting this is it this is just the start 2019 is going to be the year of the recession you better start saving money because we saw screwed well unfortunately for the people hoping to go shopping at the bottom and fortunately for everybody else this didn't really happen instead throughout pretty much all of 2019 we started the year off with a lot more of this and lately and this is the big change the big sort of inflection point lately we've actually been seeing much more of this obviously if we zoom in and follow CNBC you know the app that'll give you a heart attack with its notifications you'll see a little bit more of this but the market has really been interesting because corporate earnings just aren't showing the negativity that a lot of us are feeling or are expecting we're not seeing as much negativity in the eurozone we're seeing positive signs coming out of brexit we're seeing positive signs with the China trade war and even though corporate debts and lower quality companies aren't doing superhot and we've got things like we exit going on we work joke the markets proving to be pretty dang resilient right now well what then should we expect afore the market in 2020 well this is where the Fed over the next 72 hours is going to give us some pretty incredible guidance but it's not going to be what you expect because I know a lot of us who say oh you know don't listen to the Fed what do they know wah blah blah blah okay fine whatever the bottom line is they have the power to affect the market with the expectations they set so whether or not you like the Fed really doesn't matter what we're expecting let's just be very clear here the expectation is that the Federal Reserve is going to reduce the federal funds rate to the range of 1.5 to 1.75 this will represent another 1/4 percent drop in the interest rate this is pretty much priced in and analysts think this is about 70 to 90 percent likely to happen if the Fed does not drop rates that would be a massive shock to the markets the markets would not expect that and the Fed has already indicated that the last thing they want to do is rock the boat and shock people's expectations so in a weird way people's expectations could partially be driving the feds decision to stay on the course of reducing rates however this isn't what matters what matters is what they're going to say going forward now over the next three days most people are going to pay attention to that October 30th meeting at 2:00 p.m.
Eastern Standard Time where the Fed says we've decided to drop rates or not it'd be a big shocker if they didn't drop rates but what's actually going to be the most important is what they say which in my opinion will be a huge tell as to what we should expect for the direction of the marketplace in 2020 and whether or not there will be a recession in 2020 at all or perhaps was what we saw at the end of 2018 our session now there are three possible things of the Fed will say they'll either say this is the last time that we are dropping rates this will be bad in the short term for the market so in the short term we might see a little bit more of this kind of flattening possibly a little bit of a decrease but my expectation is for the rest of the year we'll probably see more people be excited about the marketplace and you might see 2020 go right back to 2017 style market so overall this would probably be a good thing but it'll hurt a little bit in the short term which in my opinion might be a good time to buy stocks and obviously don't sue me bro if I'm wrong although the last time I made a stock market prediction I said everybody should buy Tesla all day long under my target price of $232 and those people are doing really well right now the second option is the wait-and-see approach and I think this will be the smiley face approach because it's going to sort of keep us on this same trajectory without that sort of short-term uncertainty of the Fed going doctor said we ain't doing any more instead people want to believe that the Fed will continue to step in if necessary so wait and see could be the best case scenario those are the words we want to hear if they say something like a combination of 1 & 2 which is quite possible where they go this is it for now but we'll wait and see you know what happens in the next six months we might see a little bit of a combination response from the market the last option is the Fed indicating another drop coming or if they go for a half percent drop this time which really nobody's expecting but this would be very bad because it would be a signal that uh-oh there's some real serious problems that the Fed is seeing and I know a lot of people like well I don't care about the Fed I don't like the Fed the bottom line is if they're sad then you probably should be sad too okay so to me that would probably indicate some kind of instability in the short term but longer 2020 we might see that decline people are looking for unless the Fed and our government two separate institutions continue to try to prop up and prevent this recession by spending pre-election and keeping rates as low as possible so definitely option number three is going to hurt of the most for those long-run investors even though rates will be lower will be a bad sign for long-term growth my personal expectation is we're going to see something between one and a two and I do believe at least in planning for this that I'm not going to see any kind of massive precipitous drop in 2020 instead if anything I'm probably more of this this kind of line here which if you were to put a percentage on this it'd be somewhere between 1 to 3% growth maybe 1 to 2% growth but as usual I will continue to invest in below market real estate deals which I teach you how to do in the courses link below and I'm pretty optimistic though I will tell you October 30th at 2:00 p.m.
Eastern Time will be a very fascinating time I'm very interested to see what happens because it is going to be this signal for what happens in the market place in 2020 and if you're not paying attention to it or if the only thing you're looking at is whether or not rates drop you're missing the boat we've got to keep an eye on the verbage thanks so much for watching another meet kevin report and until next time
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