저자: HamishHodder · 외국인
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하워드 막스의 과거 시장 예측 5가지(1999 닷컴버블, 2005~2007 주택시장 버블, 2008 금융위기 매수, 2012 주식 사망론 역발상, 2020 코로나 바닥 매수)를 정리하며, 비관이 극에 달할 때 투자 기회가 생긴다는 역발상 원칙을 강조한다. [닷컴버블] 1999년 말 기술주 과열을 경고하며 2000년 1월 과열 투기 우려를 공개적으로 표명. 이후 나스닥은 2000년 3월부터 2002년 10월까지 약 80% 하락. [주택시장 버블] 2004~2005년 저금리로 인한 위험선호 확산을 경고하고 2005년 주택시장 투기를 지적. 명시적으로 주택시장 붕괴 시점을 맞힌 것은 아니지만 자산 매도와 신규 투자 제한으로 대응. [2008 금융위기] 2008년 말 리먼 사태 이후 극단적 비관 속에서 고객자금 75억 달러를 투입해 주식 매수. 발언은 '세상이 끝나느냐 아니냐' 이분법으로 보고 지속된다는 가정에 베팅. [2012 주식 사망론] 1979년 Businessweek '주식의 죽음' 기사를 2012년 시장과 비교하며 극도의 비관이 강세장 전 단계라고 해석. 1979~1999년 연 17.9%, 2012~2021년 연 16.5% 수익률 언급. [2020 코로나] 2020년 3월 시장 30% 이상 폭락 후 바닥은 회복 직전 하루라는 취지로 매수 재개를 권고. 바닥 시점은 알 수 없으나 저가 우량자산 기회라고 주장. [투자 원칙] 극단적 비관·낙관 때만 확신 있는 예측이 가능하며 대부분은 예측 불가. 공개 데이터는 누구나 아는 정보라 초과수익의 원천이 아니고, 투자자 심리의 비합리성을 이해하는 것이 우위라고 강조. [출연자 전망] 특정 종목·자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측 발언은 없음. 전반적으로 현 시점 바닥 판단이나 특정 자산 전망은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
in mid-2005 Howard Marx had no idea that the U.S housing market was propped up by millions of Bad Mortgages and was being fueled by degenerate Wall Street gambling but despite not knowing exactly what was coming he began selling large amounts of assets within his investment fund which led him to profit considerably from the ultimate Fallout of the 2008 financial crisis and in March of 2020 during the covert sparked Market Panic he was investing heavily despite admitting that he had no idea how bad the virus would ultimately be so how does Howard Marx make money every time the market shifts despite not knowing exactly what is going to happen next how would Mark's first big prediction began in the fall of 1999.
financial markets were booming and the gains were led by a basket of mostly new technology companies that had sprouted out of the internet Revolution it seemed like it was the easiest place to make money there were new companies being launched on stock exchanges every single day and even though most of them had no profits or even no revenues in some cases money from Wall Street and Retail investors was flowing freely and stocks were going up and up and up for anyone who has an understanding of financial markets this was pretty clearly a market bubble Howard Marx describes a bubble as an irrationally elevated opinion of an asset or a sector and that's exactly what he saw in the tech sector of the US economy in January of 2000 he wrote I find the evidence of an overheated speculative Market in technology internet and Telecommunications stocks overwhelming as are the similarities to past manias to say technology internet and telecommunication stocks are too high and about to decline is comparable today to standing in front of a freight train to say they have benefited from a boom of colossal proportions and should be examined very skeptically is something I feel I owe to you just two months later in March of 2000 the NASDAQ Stock Exchange that traded most of the speculative Tech sector began to fall only reaching a bottom in October of 2002 after declining almost 80 percent but it was only a few years later that Marx would make his next big prediction beginning in late 2004 Marx described what he saw coming as a slow developing train wreck after the internet bubble burst in 2000 the Aftershock was so significant that the entire U.S economy fell into recession for most of 2001.
in an effort to jumpstart the economy the Federal Reserve had lowered interest rates from 6.5 percent in 2000 to just one percent in 2004. this effectively lowered the returns that investors would expect out of all types of asset classes unfortunately it's not in human nature to Simply accept that returns are not as good as they used to be instead investors sought to maintain their returns by simply taking more and more risk in his 2004 memo titled risk and return today Marx wrote a prospective Returns on most asset classes were unusually low and B risk seeking on the part of investors looking to improve on those low returns had led them to embrace higher risk and alternative investments just a few months later in 2005 he wrote another memo about how investors were finding these higher risk investments in residential real estate he wrote about the tendency of investors to a ignore the lessons of the past Cycles B fall for new developments and C pile into risky Investments Guided by the time-honored platitudes such as it's just different this time higher risk means higher returns or if it stops working I'll just get out while self admittedly he had no idea how bad the bubble was in residential real estate he did see rampant speculation across financial markets and accordingly sold large amounts of assets liquidated funds and limited the new Investments he was willing to make through his fund he followed up his concern that something big was coming in one of his 2007 memos where do we stand in the cycle in my opinion there's a little mystery I see low levels of skepticism fear and risk aversion most people are willing to undertake risky Investments often because the promised returns from traditional safe Investments seem so meager this is true even though the lack of interest in safe Investments and acceptance of risky Investments have rendered the slope of the risk return line quite flat risk premiums are generally the skimpiest I've ever seen but few people are responding by refusing to accept incremental risk just eight months later bear Stones collapse which you might remember from this scene in The Big Short Mr Miller I'm sorry quick question from the time you guys started talking bear Stern stock has fallen more than 38 percent would you still buy more yeah sure of course I'd Buck more why not phone the U.S stock market fell 53 and the world entered the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression but it's what Howard Marx did next which is largely responsible for the more than two billion net worth that he has today just before I get to that if you want to learn more about the global financial crisis or a wide variety of topics related to finance economics or even other areas of study then I highly recommend you check out the sponsor of today's video short form short form provides super in-depth summaries of each book's key points and Concepts and goes above and beyond by building on the top ideas in their book guides they cover a 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discount on the annual subscription join short form through my link short form.com forward slash hotter or scan the QR code or click the link in the description in late 2008 the fourth largest Investment Bank in the world Lehman Brothers collapsed and the world had entered a complete Financial meltdown in fact it got so bad that many people really believed that the US Financial system was going to be completely destroyed and that this was the beginning of a 1930 style depression that would last for years if if not decades so the situation posed a very difficult question for investors to invest heavily now or to wait for things to get better this is what Marx wrote at the time I think the Outlook has to be viewed as binary will the world end or won't it if you can't say yes you have to say no and act accordingly in particular saying it will end will lead to inaction while saying it's not going to will permit us to do the things that we've always done that have always worked in the past we will invest on the assumption that it will go on that companies will make money that they'll have value and they're buying claims on them at low prices will work in the long run What alternative is there either the world was going to effectively end and whatever decisions made were irrelevant or the financial system would continue to work and therefore those who bet on it would come out on top on the basis of this rationale Marx invested a total of 7.5 billion dollars for clients in late 2008 at a time when almost nobody was doing the same what made the situation interesting was the overwhelming amount of pessimism about the future of the U.S financial system essentially eliminated almost all the downside of investing in stocks and the utter distrust for the financial markets lasted for an extremely long period of time by 2011 investors who participated since the year 2000 had pretty much made no returns and the consensus at the time was that the stock market was just no longer a good place to invest this led in 2012 to Mark's next big prediction the markets in 2012 reminded him of an article that he read in 1979 called the death of equities the businessweek article was written during a time of raging inflation recession and long stretches of bad stock market returns and the article's premise was essentially that nobody was going to invest in stocks ever again whatever caused it the institutionalization of inflation along with structural changes in Communications and psychology have killed the U.S Equity market for millions of investors for investors low stock prices remain a disincentive to buy For Better or For Worse than the US economy probably has to regard the death of equities as a near permanent condition reversible someday but not soon it would take a sustained bull market for a couple of years to attract broad-based investor interest and restore confidence and the article couldn't have been more wrong in the 21 years from 1979 to 1999 the stock market returned 17.9 percent per year one of the best periods for stock returns in U.S history to Howard marks the 1979 article perfectly demonstrates the difference between the average investor and second level thinking the average investor sees negative economic indicators of the recent past and extrapolates them into the future whereas the person who applies rationale could see that stock prices pushed down by pessimism is exactly the conditions that lead to strong future performance to Mark's 2012 looked exactly the same as 1979 and while performance was about to be the same as well from 2012 to 2021 stock market returns averaged 16.5 per year once again excessively negative sentiment had resulted in major gains and that simple but important notion would set the stage for Howard Mark's final big prediction it was March of 2020 news of the coronavirus becoming a global pandemic was spreading and the stock market collapsed over 30 percent in just a few weeks nobody knew what was going to happen next but same as situations in the past not knowing what comes next isn't a good enough reason to just sit out and not participate in financial markets in his letter to his investors during March of 2020 Marx wrote the bottom is the day before the recovery begins thus it's absolutely impossible to know when the bottom has been reached ever even though there's no way to say the bottom is at hand the conditions that may make Bargains available certainly are materializing given the price drops and selling we've seen so far I believe this is a good time to start investing once again the overwhelmingly negative opinion of stocks had created the exact conditions that are good for investors a market where good assets are selling for extremely low prices so it didn't matter that you didn't know whether things were going to get worse you were essentially already able to buy incredibly good assets or incredibly good businesses at really good prices throughout the five predictions that Marx has made some of the strategies or principles may have become clearer to you but here's a summary of how he does it the first thing to remember is that the best way to learn about future events is to study when those events have happened in the past a what happened B is there a pattern that has been repeated and C what are the lessons to be learned from this pattern but the most important principle to understand is that most of the time you cannot at all predict what is going to happen most of the times stocks are slightly overvalued or slightly undervalued or the market is slightly more risky or slightly more favorable at these times no prediction you could make would have any level of certainty it's only in rare moments of extreme pessimism or optimism that you can say with reasonable confidence that markets or an individual stock is likely to swing in the other way and this is actually exactly why value investors demand such a large margin of safety you only invest in stocks where the price is far below its real value because only in those circumstances can you actually be confident that the price revision is going to work in your favor Mark's other important lesson is that readily available quantitative data regarding the past and present can't hold the secret to Superior performance since it's available to everyone where you have an edge is in better understanding the difference between how things are supposed to work and how they actually work in the real world fundamentally this has to do with investor psychology how do investors actually behave in financial markets because a lot of the time investor behavior is completely irrational a quick reminder to check out short form get your free trial and an additional 25 off an annual subscription if you use my link short form.com forward slash hotter or scan the QR code or click the link in the description
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