저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
피터 시프는 인플레이션이 수년간 이어질 것이며 과거 통화정책 실수의 결과로 쉽게 2%로 돌아가지 않는다고 주장한다. 인플레이션 전망: 소비자물가가 기대치를 크게 웃돌았고 CPI가 2%대로 떨어지기 어렵다고 본다. 과거 1990년대 CPI는 약 2% 이하였으나 현재는 높은 수준이 유지된다고 주장. 금리 및 연준: 연준이 지난해 3월부터 금리를 올려 3.25%에 이르렀으나 경제에 대한 영향은 느리다고 평가. 금리를 훨씬 더 올려야 하며 연준이 인플레 해소 전에 피벗하면 인플레가 재상승한다고 봄. 다만 금리 인상을 지속하면 금융위기가 올 수 있다는 딜레마를 언급. 달러 및 무역: 달러 약세가 진행 중이며 무역적자가 확대되어 달러가 더 하락할 것이라 주장. 세계가 달러에서 멀어지고 있다고 봄. 미국 재정: 미국 부채 21조 달러 이상, 재정적자 1.38조 달러, 부채/GDP 125% 이상. 미 국채를 안전자산으로 사는 것은 부당하다고 비판. 정부가 지출을 대폭 줄여야 하며 디폴트 가능성을 언급. 시나리오: 연준이 인플레를 2%로 되돌리면 주식·채권·부동산 폭락과 금융위기·경기침체가 올 것이고, 연준이 조기에 피벗하면 인플레가 재상승할 것이라 봄. 결론적으로 현 상황에서 연준이 금리를 충분히 올리지 못하고 있으며 경기침체가 악화되어 파월이 결국 패배를 인정하고 피벗할 것이라는 전망.
다듬은 글
Peter Schiff the CEO and chief Global strategist of euro-pacific capital limited has warned about the inflation which has started some months ago in one of his recent podcasts he said the insanity continues Peter explained why he said Insanity doing the same thing over and over for a long period of time and expecting a different outcome back in the day when anyone talked about inflation that just talk about it for a very short time and say it will be fixed and it would Peter later stated that it makes no sense when everyone expects lower inflation but the results were always way worse than expected the Consumer Price Index came out was double expectations and the prices continued to spike higher despite all the FED has done to stop it feds have been increasing the interest rates since last March which makes the rate at 3.25 percent which has brought a very slow impact on the economy investors are always expecting lower inflation but then every month it keeps soaring higher and higher with all this happening Peter believes that inflation is not going to go away anytime soon or even within this decade most people believed the inflation came from the monetary policy mistake made after kovid but Schiff has made it clear that we're suffering from a historical monetary policy mistake was made years before coven possibly in the 90s Peter also spoke about Pepsi increasing prices which is more indicative of inflation he also pointed out Paul volcker who has increased prices to 20 in order to control inflation during the 90s the Consumer Price Index was roughly under two percent and comparing it to what's happening today the CBI cannot fall to that level this is because a lot of money has been printed and there has been a lot of debt Peter said we're not going down to two percent we cannot revert to something low we can only revert to something High because the two percent inflation rate we got was following the 2008 financial crisis what we're going to have is relatively High inflation to make up for the low inflation of past years we kind of like corrupted the monetary policy of the whole world Peter said as the feds cut the interest rates most major central banks did the same and some even made use of the negative interest rate policies just to get their rates below Americas this is because the dollar is the currency bearing the status of the world Reserve currency but this status is not going to last forever Peter insists the rate needs to be increased a lot more the hikes are too little to do something about the ongoing inflation but the government has to drastically reduce government spending puta proposed two outcomes on inflation first the FED succeeds in returning inflation to percent and all stocks bonds and real estate crash creating a financial crisis and creating a recession that includes government defaults and spending cuts he said the second outcome is the Fed pivots before inflation returns to two percent if they do pivot either to get rid of the financial crisis or to react to one inflation will rise the opposite of what was experienced after the 2008 financial crisis this time instead of embracing the dollar the world is going to stay away from it shift tweeted on Wednesday the US merchandise trade deficit unexpectedly jumped by 5.7 percent in September as Imports Rose by 0.8 percent and exports fell by 1.5 percent breaking a five-month streak a failing trade deficits he concluded now that the dollar is weakening the future trade deficit will widen and cause the dollar to fall further the U.S debt is now more than 21 trillion dollars and the budget deficit of the government in 2022 is 1.38 trillion dollars Schiff explained that the debt to GDP ratio in the US is higher than 125 as the US has done a fiscal mess more than Britain then selling pounds against the dollar is just jumping from frying pan to fire buying U.S treasuries is even more ridiculous as a safe haven because it is absurd to sell our country's currency due to debt problems and by dollars when the US has even more debt Schiff also continued the government is trying to get blood from the same turnips because Americans are broke we have no savings so can we possibly repay this debt of course not repaying the debt is not possible so what's gonna happen we're just gonna default Schiff said that he wasn't going to give the feds any credit it should have raised the rates a lot more than they already have it's gotten so much slower and the economy cannot handle it the inflation would have gotten worse if the FED continues to increase the rate it should not stop increasing the rates because it's going to put the economy into a financial crisis it has to do that they have to make the rates go up and slash government spending but these may not happen the recession is going worse and Powell is going to Pivot in defeat if you enjoyed this video subscribe if you haven't already and turn on notifications for more content like this and we'll see in the next one
Comments 0