저자: 워런버핏 · 외국인
요약 보기
한 줄 결론: 버핏은 주식을 영원히 보유하는 것이 원칙이지만, 기업의 경제적 해자가 약해졌다고 판단될 때만 매도한다고 설명한다. 매도 원칙: 버크셔는 원래 매도를 좋아하지 않으며, 1973년 워싱턴포스트, 1962년 매수한 버크셔 주식, 1988년 코카콜라, 1989년 질레트, 1991년 아메리칸익스프레스 등을 장기 보유하고 있다. 과거에는 돈이 필요하거나 더 좋은 투자처가 있을 때 매도했으나, 최근 10~15년간은 자금 문제가 없었다. 매도 기준: 매수 당시 가졌던 장기 경쟁우위가 약해졌다고 판단될 때 매도한다. 맥도날드·디즈니에 대해서는 기업이 망하는 것이 아니라 경쟁우위가 희석되었다고 봤기 때문이다. 신문산업과 network TV 사업은 1970년대·1965년 대비 프랜차이즈 가치가 떨어졌다고 평가했다. 대상 자산 전망: 언급된 자산 중 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없다. 인생 조언: 멍거는 학생들에게 자동차 비유를 들어 인생에는 한 개의 마음과 한 개의 몸만 주어지므로 이를 평생 관리해야 한다고 조언한다. 대학 졸업생의 가치를 자신의 소득 10%를 5만 달러에 사는 것으로 환산하면 50만 달러이며, 이 자산이 가장 중요하다고 강조한다. 기타 질의: 냉동보존(cryofreezing) 질문에 대해 버핏은 전기 비용 등을 언급하며 가볍게 답했다. 두 사람 모두 현재 사업이 나이 제약이 적어 평생 운영하기 쉽다고 말한다. 출연자 전망: 버핏과 멍거는 장기 보유 철학을 재확인했으며, 예측성 단기 전망은 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
I promised the young shareholder from the first zone that he would ask the first question, and we are ready for the first zone . Congratulations, Mr. Buffett and Mr. Munger. My name is David Klein Roddick from Lincolnshire, Illinois. Thank you for letting me ask the first question. I would like to express my condolences on the loss of your friend, Ms.
Graham, last year. My question: you said that the best term to own stocks is forever. However, you sold McDonald's and Disney shares after only holding them for a short time. How do you decide what to keep forever and what to sell? Also, do you and Mr. Munger wear Fruit of the Loom underwear? Charlie?
I think I'm better at answering this question. I can say without a doubt : I wear Fruit of the Loom. And I'm not sure if Charlie wears underwear, but you? I have I haven't bought new underwear in a long time, so I'm not dressed properly. He is waiting for a discount. Don't let him fool you. Well, that's a very good question about sales.
I mean, selling is not in our nature. On the other hand, we have held Washington Post shares since 1973. I have never sold Berkshire stock, having bought my first in 1962, and we have held Coke stock since 1988. We have held Gillette shares since 1989. We have held American Express shares since 1991.
We actually invested in American Express before in the 60s, as we did in Disney. So these are companies that we know well. We usually sell if we need money for something else, but in the last 10-15 years, this problem has not arisen. 40 years ago I only sold because I found something better. I hated selling what I had, but I also did n't want to borrow money.
So I reluctantly sold what I thought was extremely cheap to buy something even cheaper. There were times when I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas. And that's a completely different equation. So now we sell when we believe that we are overestimating the economic characteristics of the business.
In other words, if we take I don't want to name names, but let's take some stock that we sold. We probably had one idea about the company's long-term competitive advantage when we bought it. And then we could change it. This does not mean that we believe that the company is entering some catastrophic period or anything like that.
We believe McDonald's has a great future. We believe Disney has a great future, and there are others. But we probably don't think their competitive advantage is as strong as we thought when we first made the decision. This could mean that we were wrong when we made this decision in the first place .
This could mean that we are wrong now and that their strengths remain the same as before. But for one reason or another, we believe that these strengths have been somewhat diluted. I think a classic example in this regard would be the newspaper industry as a whole. I mean, in 1970, if Charlie and I looked at the newspaper business, we would have felt that it was as unwavering a franchise as it could possibly be.
We still think this business is pretty good, but we don't think a franchise in 2002 is the same as it was in 1970. We don't think a network television station franchise in 2002 is the same as it was in 1965. And those beliefs are changing pretty gradually, and who knows if they're accurate or even right, but that's the general reason why we're selling now.
If we were in some extremely cheap market, we could sell things we thought were cheap to buy something even cheaper, after buying a lot of stocks, but that's not the case now. Charlie? Eh, nothing to add. He had been preparing for this for weeks. I'm Lowell Christman from Phoenix, Arizona. I am retired and teach high school students.
I wish they could be here and hear you today. I teach these people an investment course part-time. And at the very first class, I was asked to teach them how to prepare for retirement. I would like to know what two or three things you would advise me to include in this course. What do these two Warrens know about retirement?
Yes, we didn't even think about that. Let me make one suggestion for this group. Uh, I use it sometimes when I was speaking to a group of high school students at Nebraska Wesleyan a few weeks ago, but tell the young people in the class—they're probably about 16 or 17 years old. And if they were like me at 16, you know, I only thought about two things, and Martina's aunt Barbara didn't want to date me, so I focused on cars.
I tried hearses, but it didn't work. They, uh ...And let's say—I'm using this as an example—imagine that a genie appeared to you when you turned 16 and said, "Tomorrow morning, you'll have any car you want, tied with a big pink ribbon. Any one you name. It could be a Rolls-Royce, it could be a Jaguar, it could be a Lexus.
You, you just name it. And this car will be there, and you don't owe me a penny." And since you've already heard stories about jinn, you ask, "What's the catch?" And, of course, the genie replies, “Well, there’s only one. "This car you'll get tomorrow morning, the car of your dreams, is the only car you'll ever have ." So, you can choose one, but that's it.
And you still name your dream car, and the next morning you get it. Now, what will you do knowing that this is the only car you will have for the rest of your life? Well, you'll read the owner's manual ten times before you put the key in the ignition. You will keep it in the garage. You know, you 'll be changing your oil twice as often as recommended.
You will make sure that the tires are properly inflated. If a small scratch appears, you will repair it the same day so that it does not rust. In other words, you will do everything to ensure that this dream car of yours at 16 remains your dream car at 50 or 60, because you treat it as the only one you will ever have in your life.
And then I would advise your students in Phoenix that they will receive exactly one mind and one body. And this is the mind and body they will have at 40, 50, and 60. And the issue is not so much about preparing for retirement at this particular age. It's a matter of preparing for life at this age, and they need to understand the importance of taking care of their minds and bodies so that at 50, 60 or 70 they have a real asset, not something rusty that has been neglected for years.
And it will be too late to think about it when they are 60 or 70. You can't, you can't repair the car and put it back to its original condition. You can serve it. And in the case of intelligence, you can improve it significantly over time. But the most important asset your students have is themselves.
You know, I'll take a person who's graduating from college, and assuming they're in decent shape and all that , I'll be happy to pay them, you know, probably $50,000 for 10% of their total income for the rest of their life. Well, if I'm willing to pay them 50,000 for 10% , that means they're worth 500,000 even if they don't have a cent in their pocket, as long as they have a good mind and a good body.
This asset is now much, much more important than any other asset they have, unless they are very lucky with an inheritance or something like that. But mostly their main asset is themselves, and they should treat their main asset the same as any other asset separate from themselves. And if they do that, start thinking about it now, and develop habits that support and enhance that asset, you know, they're going to have a great mind and body when they're 60 .
And if not, they will be in a broken state. Charlie? Do we have anyone in zone nine? Yes. Good. Mr. Buffett, my name is Luke Nosek from Palo Alto, California. The first thing I would like to do is just thank you for saving me from losing everything on internet stocks over the past few years. Although in reality this is not entirely true.
I lost everything, but you saved my last savings. I bought the shares in late 2000. And in fact, it's not just about stocks. It's about learning from you, your investment philosophy, and your character. It was very inspiring at the beginning of my professional journey to have such a mentor. And I would like to think that it has been very inspiring to all of us over probably almost 50 years of your investment professional life, which continues to be at the top.
I wish it would last a long time. I would like to see the next 50 years. And I do n't know if that's possible given today's medical technology, but I have friends in biotech who have been involved in companies doing something called cryofreezing, and I'm wondering if you've heard of it. It's a process, I 've studied it.
It's the process of freezing people when they die, and, uh... Just don't do it too soon with me. In fact, it is only legal to do so after they have passed away. But even if the risks or chances of success are very small and the discount rate is huge over a long period of time, I'm wondering if you've considered it, if you would consider that possibility.
And again, thank you for your service and all the lessons over the last 50 years, and we would think about Well, I appreciate the suggestion, and there's probably nothing wrong with it. Well, it takes a lot of electricity to stay frozen forever. Well, that's nothing. We get our electricity wholesale from MidAmerican.
Well, we're all for anything that continues our, uh, our, uh, productive year. I, I have to say, at 71, uh, I can't remember being happier than I am right now, and I think Charlie is in pretty good spirits too. So we, we, we are lucky to be in the business that we are in. I mean, just imagine if we were even a little bit athletic or something where you're, you know, essentially age-restricted, but there's really no problem in this business.
I mean, as long as I can pick up the phone and hear Craig on the other end, or if I can't hear him, I ask him to tell Charlie, and he can pass it on to me. Uh, this, this, this is a very easy business to run for, for a lifetime, and we're lucky in that .
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