저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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중국은 부동산 침체와 수출 의존 구조로 신뢰 저하 및 미국과의 긴장 직면. 민간기업 대신 국영기업 관점 필요. 금 수요는 중국 개인의 불안 헤지와 인도의 소득 증가(7%+ 성장)에 따른 구매력 확대로 설명. 인도는 모디 재선 가능성과 기술 중심 개혁으로 장기 유망, 단 시장 상승 후 조정 가능성 있음. 일본은 금리 인상과 이민 확대로 개방화 진행, 주시 필요.
다듬은 글
when it comes to investing around the world lots of big questions there have been questions in China for example surrounding the pace of economic growth coming out of the pandemic India meanwhile has emerged as a bright spot the IMF estimating it could be the fastest growing major economy this year we spoke with Emerging Markets expert and the chairman of Mobius emerging opportunities fund Mark Mobius who talked with us about both of those particular markets in the invest in climate right now here's more first on what he had to say about the Chinese economy China is facing incredible challenges first of course is the property Market uh that's such a big part of the entire Savings of people in China and the tanking of that sector means that confidence is going down so that's a big big problem for China everyone knows about it the other big problem of course is the policies by Xi Jinping um his policies are are really quite adverse to private sector and are more favorable to the public sector companies so uh anybody looking at China may have to shift their View and go away from the private sector into public companies government owned companies uh that are listed that may be an opportunity there uh but the big big challenge now is of course with the US uh Janet Yellen as you know has been in China urging the Chinese to not produce so much and so cheaply uh because it imbalances the US market and the global market but I don't think uh they're gonna be able to do that well they will want to do that they would not want to give up on this incredible export ability that they have but that's creating incredible tension and if it keeps on going that way the US will probably take action and I think that's the reason why Yellen has made these two trips over to China to to warn them and say look you've got to change your way of doing things and of course I think their advice the advice of Yellen is good because China should be a domestic economy not an export-led economy domestic consumption should be encouraged uh but that's not their plan we do see those tensions play out in very specific Industries as well semiconductors would be a great example and I suppose for some investors if you're buying shares of say an American company that does business in China you've got to watch what happens but for any investors who are trying to pick technology investments in China that might get caught up in the tensions what would be your advice oh yeah there's no question that China is putting an incredible emphasis on technology on advanced technology that's the reason why I mentioned uh government companies that are in this field that are producing profits and are listed may be something to look at uh but what the challenge is now is that you have a situation where Korea is now you know previously Korea saw China as an incredible customer now China is a big competitor So Korea and countries have to move up the technology ladder and abandon uh the policy of taking someone else's technology and developing it which Korea has been doing so it's it's going to be a big battle for survival and of course the US is right in the middle of that battle I don't know whether you've heard about what tsmc is doing in the US uh that's an example where us is giving billions of dollars to these companies so that US tech can be upgraded in the semiconductor area that's a big storyline getting attention again this week for sure and before we move on from China you talked with us earlier about how uh you're believer in the story of gold and physical gold some have made the argument that the recent rally in bullion is in part because of demand out of China does that does that seem right to you it could be uh individuals in China probably are stocking up on physical go gold uh because of the uncertainties they face so I think that's probably a very insightful analysis that you're getting this kind of situation interestingly enough uh if you look at the Exodus of wealthy Chinese to Singapore and even here to Dubai uh this symptomatic of what is happening uh in the in the Chinese economy so that's a real challenge for the Chinese government to prevent the outflows and one way to do it would be to get physical gold so I think it's quite possible the other thing you must remember India is a big consumer of gold and with a 7% plus growth rate in India uh you're going to get more demand coming out of India people in India are getting wealthier and the first thing they'll want to do is buy more gold I'm glad you brought up India because I definitely wanted to get your perspective on the momentum for the econ e there obviously a uh Global player that cannot be ignored for investors over the long term we're preparing for general elections in the short term as well what would be your one message on how to think about investing in IND India right now well first of all you've got to be in India there's no question that from a long even a short term India is a place to be the growth rate is incredible Modi will probably be well definitely will be reelected with a greater majority in the parliament of Congress and uh he is implementing a lot of reforms and particularly the digitization of the Indian economy uh the use of technology in every sphere uh government policy is very oriented towards technology so India is a place to be now of course the Indian Market has gone up a lot and there'll be Corrections along the way but even with that picking good solid companies in India is the way to go and a final question speaking of markets that have been catching the eye of investors what's been your sense of the situation in Japan uh it's very interesting that Japan of course is now trying to uh change their stance and increase rates um they've had a big balance sheet problem as you know um and I believe that Japan is now moving into a new era one of the interesting things about Japan is they're allowing and encouraging more and more immigration uh in other words they becoming a more open society and that augur very well I think for the economy and for the stock market so I think we got to keep an eye on on Japan
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