저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 4분기에 아마존과 알파벳을 매수해 포트폴리오의 약 10%를 차지한다는 보도를 소개하며, 아마존이 과거 전망대로 상승 중이라 설명한다. 주가수익비율(PER 62)은 과거 이익 기준이라 실질 이익 잠재력을 반영하지 못한다고 주장한다. 주봉·월봉상 강세지만 단기 하락 가능성을 언급해 일부 이익 실현 구간을 설정하고, 시장이 조정받은 뒤 상승을 기대하겠다는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
hey what's going on everyone today we're going to talk about The Big Short investor Michael brry apparently by the modly fool he has about 10% of his portfolio and two magnificent s AI stocks you can see them right there behind our logo you guys can see it's Amazon Google those are the two stocks that he has in his portfolio now we're going to talk about Amazon because I ain't do a price prediction in a while so I said all right cool let me go ahead and help the family out let me show them what I think the price is about to do in Amazon so that we can just be prepared now if he has a portfolio a position of Amazon in his portfolio then obviously we must be sitting pretty because we did a price predic in Amazon look at that we talked about Amazon going all the way back here to February of 2024 looking for the price to continue to go up in price and we are literally hitting our cell zone right now so whenever he came through and purchased Amazon we want to thank him for lifting up the stocks price CU as long as we get ahead of these people we can ride the wave so in 2023 fourth quarter skion as that management reported two purchases that may surprise his value investing followers Amazon and alphabet or Google these Magnificent Seven growth stocks have typically been shunned by value investors due to their High earnings multiples yet as of the end of 2023 they made up 10% of Mike's portfolio Mike ain't crazy you think he cares about multiples you think he cares about value investing no this man is just simply trying to make the bag he's just trying to make money so how was that shunning why would people hate against a man who's out here just trying to make bread make it make sense if he wants to buy Amazon if he wants to buy Google understand that he thinks that there's a big opportunity for him to make money same for you don't try to segregate yourself into being a particular type of individual or Trader or investor if you see a good stock handle your business make the brand then move on to the next opportunity so this article is trying to state that the value investors who pays attention to michaelb they won't like him because oh he bought Amazon and Google at first glance Amazon seems overvalued here we go they like to base price of a stock off of the fundamentals of the business when in my opinion both should be separated you cannot equate or correlate both of these separate entities into one why because you have market dynamics Market structure supply and demand messing around with the stock price of Amazon then you have the business portion you got business expenses business operations economic stability interest rates that affects the business operations how can you correlate those two together to come up with a price as to what the stock should be so at first glance if you're strictly looking at the fundamentals of Amazon it may seem overvalued but that's the old way of how people try to price what a stock price should be it's price to earn ratio is 62 it's more than twice the average of S&P 500 28 as of this writing is the PE ratio for the S&P 500 however see that's the keyword right there however when you look under the hood it is clear that Amazon did not show is true profit potential 2023 wait hold up so you're basing price to earning ratio off of old data because like like this article goes into it's clear that Amazon did not show its true profit potential the key word there is potential something that no Wall Street analyst can get right all the time it's only an estimate so if if the estimate is incorrect then guess what the price of earning frci is going to be incorrect or it's going to be off it's not going to be right throughout last year the e-commerce and Cloud computer giant expanded its operating margin leading to approximately 7.5% margins for the last two quarters that was up significantly more than 2.5% margin Post in 2022 again the estimates the report reports were incorrect of what the analyst were looking for maybe they are underestimating the potential in Amazon had Amazon been earning a 7.5% profit margin for the entire year on its total revenue of $575 billion it would have generated $43 billion in profits in 2023 against his current market cap of 1.9 trillion that would have given it a p ratio of 44 which around 62 but even this doesn't tell the full story here we go now it doesn't tell us the reason why Michael put this stock in his portfolio this is just mle Fool's apparent reasoning as to why Michael could have placed this stock in his portfolio these are literally no brain of stocks though who doesn't know Amazon and Google are good long-term Investments you have to be living on a rock it is not just about knowing when to buy it's knowing when to sell I own Facebook when it crashed back to $20 at the initial popularity wore off when it hit $50 I sold half think of social media and the kids and what kids like can change with the win Direction and I didn't want to kick myself wow what a genius investing in Amazon and Google I never would have thought of that super secret play these people going crazy wait a minute isn't this the same guy who said back in October that the Market's going to crash and that he was shorten the blank out of it yeah it was that same guy but again you're able to switch teams like that's one of the best things about the stock market is that you're able to switch Michael back in October did short the S&P 500 like he was looking for semiconductors to go down he was looking for the S&P 500 to go down but once he saw that the market wasn't doing that he had to say right cool I got to let that play go and start playing for the alongs side start buying the market cuz the market will humle you so let's look at this on the weekly chart and Amazon real quick this is just a very strong stock I don't know like it like the other one of the comments said it's a no-brainer Amazon look like it wants to break these all-time high levels let's look at this on the monthly chart I mean what else can you expect is a strong stock the last three six month price bars has just been crazy just imagine you got that buy indicator right here on this six month bar back in January 2023 we already got the buy indicator triggered on our chart so look at that you'll be up 43 almost 44% right now within a year's time okay so yeah I'm going to go ahead and take this off so if we were to get out on this last five day bar uh that's around 8.88% what I'm going to do though is look at how strong this Market is in Amazon I'm going to take a break CU it look like it may want to begin a descension to the downside so let me do this we're going to create a byy Zone there because Michael bur May begin to sell out in his position and that's the crazy part when he comes back out and does his his SEC filings on what he AC holds and when he sold Amazon may be one of those stocks that he sold over the last three months but you don't know when right so let me just stand let me just fall back and let the market in Amazon continue to do its thing but overall yeah the stock is still bullish it's still strong but for me I want to see the market come back down a little bit more before I anticipate that higher price action to go up so yeah give me your thoughts though make sure you maintain the profitability and is always try different
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