저자: MarkMobius · 외국인
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Mark Mobius는 2023년 투자 전략으로 인도를 최우선 투자처로 꼽고 중국에는 신중한 입장을 보였다. 중국은 제로 코로나 완화와 외국 자본 유치 필요로 단기 반등 가능성이 있으나, 대만 무력 침공 위험 때문에 장기적으로 매우 조심해야 한다고 봤다. 미국 연준은 인플레이션이 2%에 도달하기까지 멀어 금리를 쉽게 내리지 않을 것이며 오히려 더 올릴 수도 있다고 전망했다. 이에 따라 신흥국 통화 강세 구간을 이용해 달러로 수출하고 현지 통화로 비용을 지출하는 기업에 주목하라고 권했다. 신흥국 중에서는 인도가 중국을 대체해 제조업 중심지가 되고 하드웨어 생산도 이동할 것이라며 1순위로 꼽았다. 인도네시아와 태국도 긍정적으로 언급했다. 브라질은 룰라 정부의 재정 지출 계획에 따라 전망이 달라질 수 있으나 괜찮아 보인다고 언급했다. 암호화폐는 FTX 사태와 규제 강화로 계속 강한 압박을 받을 것이라고 봤다. 비트코인은 1만 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 했으나 1만6000~1만7000달러 수준에 머물 가능성도 언급했다. 살아남는 거래소 비즈니스가 유망하다고 평가했다. 출연자는 중국의 대만 공격 위험이 실제로 있다고 보며, 단기 수익을 노리는 투자자가 많지만 장기적으로는 매우 조심해야 한다고 결론지었다.
다듬은 글
now our next guest has been one that is highly anticipated here in the BNN Bloomberg Newsroom he's bullish on India cautious on China and bearish on crypto from our insights into his outlook for 2023 let's bring in veteran investor Mark Mobius founding partner at Mobius Capital Partners thank you so much for taking time to speak to us today let's start with China's a belt face on its code with zero policy and of course the ramping up of the Russia Ukraine tensions tell me you know this of course adds more Global uncertainty but will the fault lines of geopolitics and Global health concerns really lead to less deal making so de-goldization is that really going to be the focus for 2023 but there's no question that China needs more Capital they need to have Founders come in to provide them with more Capital so they're going to ease up on uh covet of course they've already been doing that but more importantly they're going to want to attract foreign Capital coming into China the problem that we have and I think with a lot of other institutional investors is that China's attitude towards Taiwan is not very good they have a belligerent attitude they're thinking of attacking Taiwan forcefully in order to bring Taiwan into China and that scares the heck out of a lot of people so I think uh I think a lot of people are going to be very wary about the Chinese market for that reason and that's the reason why we are more bullish on India of course we're in Taiwan but even in Taiwan we have to be cautious about what's going to be happening there if China decides to take some military action so just taking a quick look at prices right now of course US dollar losing some of its steam but several Global economists don't see a full u-shape shift in terms of the end of the Dollar's dominance into 2023 at least until the second quarter I mean do you agree and tell me what do you think that's going to be doing for emerging market investors well one thing for certain is that the FED is not going to let up they want to see inflation at two percent and so we are a long way from that that means that interest rates are not going to go down and in fact they may even going up If the Fed decides that the not getting the reaction they want to get so that's number one however a lot of the Emerging Market currencies devalue too quickly and too far and now they come back so you've seen the strengthening of a number of Emerging Market currencies so we're taking advantage of this change and looking at companies that are exporting in US Dollars and of course have their costs in local currency which have devalued against the US dollar we don't see much change from here in that respect because the FED probably is going to continue to keep interest rates high and may even go higher going forward okay so a strategic investor in this environment who wants to incorporate more of Emerging Markets into their portfolio how would they play what you just talked about in terms of those new opportunities yeah they've got to focus on India number one because India gradually is going to replace China in terms of manufacturing of course India already is a big exporter of software and of course going forward I believe that the hardware is going to move uh to Indian manufacturing going forward it'll take time but it'll happen so India is number one and then you've got to look at countries like Indonesia like Thailand I'm now here in Thailand and things are going very well here and going forward I think perhaps Brazil depending on what happens with Lula and his program he wants to start a program of the high spending but I don't think a lot of that will go through so Brazil looks pretty good as well now we can talk about sort of a diversified approach to anyone's investment offerings and for some at least in 2023 crypto was part of that big picture view looking Beyond FTX and increased regulation the industry is obviously going to face in the wake of what's happened over the last few weeks what is the next investable Trend in the crypto space oh there's no question that crypto is going to continue to come under a tremendous pressure because of what's happening with generally not only with fpx but a number of other companies are going to go bankrupt so there are a lot of people that will be losing money in crypto however crypto is not dead there's still a lot of Believers and you're going to see uh Bitcoin I believe would go to 10 000 but who knows it could continue to stay at 16 000 or 17 000 but generally speaking it will be under tremendous pressure I think people have got to focus on the exchanges those exchanges that are able to survive and they're not playing around with any of the coins that's very important buy Finance uh is interesting but I'm afraid that even by Finance is fooling around with coins and a number of other operations a pure uh exchange business would look quite interesting in the crypto space I would believe okay I want to round out our conversation sort of taking it back to what you mentioned off the top about that threat of China invading Taiwan how pronounced is it and do you think the markets are not baking that in in terms of global uncertainty for 2023 well I think a lot of people feel that okay uh China May attack Taiwan but it won't happen soon so let me take some profits now in China because China's so low it's probably going to go up now with you know the opening of China dispensing with the covet business so let's go into China and make some quick money so I think that's the attitude of a lot of investors but I think uh on the other side taking a long-term view uh we've got to be very cautious
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