저자: KenFisher · 외국인
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Fisher는 2024년 강세장을 전망하지만 중앙은행 금리 예측은 무의미하다고 주장한다. 시장이 가격에 반영하지 못한 큰 충격(Wallop)이 위험이며, 중국·인도·파키스탄 간 핵무장 갈등을 주요 리스크로 꼽는다. 에너지, 빅테크, 고급소비재, 헬스케어를 선호하며, 2023년 저품질 IPO 감소를 근거로 아직 버블이 아니라고 본다.
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some investors hope that these weak job numbers uh point to a scenario in which the FED can start cutting rates as soon of September uh Our Guest says uh maybe we're a bit too obsessed with the rate Cuts there are several threats that haven't been priced into the markets we are joined by Ken Fischer executive chair and co-chief investment officer at Fischer Investments can we get the the rate cuts out of the way though first if you don't mind I mean do you think we'll see a rate cut in September in the states so first let me just say that in you guys honor I wore my maple leaf excellent stock market shirt today stock market tie today second I never put a moment in my 50 plus year career into worrying or thinking about what central banks might do because I've generally always believed they're just about as simply crazy and out of their mind as you can be they never know what they're going to do they think they know what they're going to do but they're reactive they let me just give you one important example the month before their first 75 basis point rate hike the FED said we're not even I mean not the FED Powell himself chairman said we're not even thinking about 75 basis point rate hikes then in June of 2022 they did and the next two months skipped a month for Halloween didn't want to scare people too much and then proceeded again 75 7575 75 the reality is they don't know what they're going to do they never have they never will nobody knows nothing apply to Central Bankers in this case you say there's a risk of a major wallup for equities what do you mean by a major wallup give us some examples uh or one or two examples where we've seen this in the past stepping back first most people fear all the same stuff that everybody else talks about the reality of capital markets is those things that we all talk about a lot and have a lot get priced into the market real real fast the fact of the matter is that things that make the big moves in the market are big surprises that I call Wallops if they're bad I call them Wallops so big surprises that are negative that can seriously impact global trade Global GDP the things that really matter to stocks are ones we do not see coming but have huge import classic example was Mark to Mark accounting on a global basis implemented in 2007 that hugely took the mortgage problem and Amplified it to write $2 trillion off of global bank balance sheets that had nothing to do with the write Downs the fact is big bad things that nobody C's coming at us are huge negatives to markets so there's numbers of them that I worry about but I want to point out as every time I've been on this show recently for quite some time I'm bullish on the market right now but whenever I'm bullish I'm still looking for risks and give us an example of the kind of wallup that we could get I mean hopefully it won't be more war and violence war and violence is a tragic problem most wars are unimportant to the stock market because they're not big enough to impact the global trade or the economy in a macro sense the other legendary statement about wars is sell on the fear Buy on the bullets because usually once important Wars have started when I say important important to global trade it's already too late the market goes up but the one that I worry about in that regard that is war is in the nuclear arm triangle of China India and Pakistan you have three economies and cultures and politics that largely don't like each other have all way they're all neighbors uh had border skirmishes they're all nuclear armed uh Pakistan's economy is a shambles India is doing really well India would like to be the Teeter Totter in that region for the West versus the East China does not like what India is doing there is the odds of War there high no it's low but it's not impossible and a war between them in that region any two of them would be catastrophic yeah exactly and uh what a power struggle between India and China is going on maybe the most important struggle in the world um that nobody much talks about no we don't nobody much talks about that's right um give us some sectors that you're overemphasizing right now are there Bargains out there Bargains isn't the way i' put it and the reason I wouldn't put it that way is because valuations don't usually tell you much about short to intermediate term stock price Direction the way I put it is what sectors in a moderate growth economy with slowly decelerating inflation do pretty well and there are and as I've written uh two months ago in the Canadian Globe uh and mail uh energy is one that I like a lot which of course is important to Canada but I still like the big Tech and you can see that today in the way Tech's moving uh and then also I like the high-end consumer luxury goods uh which are have been powerful contributor to all of these many countries around the world that aren't Tech that have been hitting all-time highs Canada excluded I mean Canada did but not with tied to global luxury uh consumer luxury uh but these are all sectors that I like a lot and healthc care which has not been a leader in the marketplace should start doing better and better a big Healthcare i' I've got to get your thought on big Tech I know it's it's impossible to generalize but um the the internet Giants alphabet Amazon um are they in a bubble does it look bubble like the the valuations there I know you don't spend too much time on on published pees I think again short intermediate term valuations don't tell you price Direction they never have they never will okay the fact of the matter is it no when you want to think about Bubble you want to think about different thing the way to think about Bubble is in a sector Tech or otherwise do we see the leadership of the category doing well turning into lowquality IPOs coming forth in high volume where the I Banking and public market world is ready to bet on low quality that is The Telltale symbol of bubble Bubblicious comes along from garbage floating in the marketplace being presumed to be sort of like the high quality stuff the big high quality ones with price uh high but revenue and profits and real growth and real stuff that isn't what tells you if it's a bubble or not it what tells you is a bubble is if that stuff doing well leads to garbage flying well it's the garbage that tells you and tell us are are we seeing those lowquality IPOs coming to Market I can't think of no no no no think think about this 2023 globally after the spa world of 2021 2023 was the lowest volume IO Market in uh since 1984 and that tells you we're not anywhere close to an actual bubble
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