저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 설비투자(capex) 확대는 AI 혁명의 검증이며 기술주 강세장은 2~3년 더 지속된다고 주장. 팔란티어 조정은 일시적 과속방지턱이며 AI 버블론은 시기상조. 빅테크 capex는 당초 2200억달러에서 약 3800억달러로 상향, 내년 5500~6000억달러 전망. 엔비디아는 실적 서프라이즈 후 시총 6조달러 도달 가능, 연말까지 기술주 8~10% 상승 전망. 메타 주가 급락은 과도한 오해이며 장기 성장 투자 지속이 옳다고 봄. 테슬라 보상안은 'win-win'이라 평가.
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LGT Wealth Management, lgtwm.com.au. Hello and welcome to the global view on this Tuesday. I'm Andrew Gagen. Good to even with us again here at Opiz. Let's get across what we saw on global markets overnight. They did rally as the US Senate moved towards ending the US government shutdown. Senators passing a bill that will be amended to fund the government until January 30th.
That boosted risk sensitive assets with Wall Street's main indices charging higher. Most tech stocks surged led by Nvidia while Alphabet and Meta also gained. Airline stocks initially climbed on hopes of a potential end to the federal government shutdown with flights having been cut amid air traffic control staffing absences, but then they pulled back late in the healthcare space.
Sentine fell heavily while Humana and Elements Health also fell with the agreement to end the government shutdown only including a promise to vote on extending medical subsidies. Msera slumped as FISA won a $10 billion bidding war to acquire the company while Eli Liy shares gained to hit a new record high after a broker upgrade.
Shares of meat packets and foods rose on forecast of annual revenue largely above analyst estimates spending on demand for chicken products and US listed shares of BHP and Rio gain tracking a rise in copper prices. Well, the US Senate has voted in favor of a bill to end the government shutdown. Under the agreement, Congress would pass fullear funding for some departments and fund other agencies until January 30th next year.
That paves the way for the shutdown to end potentially by the end of the week, but it still needs to pass the lower house before gaining the approval of President Trump. White House economic adviser Kevin Hasset warning that US economic growth in the fourth quarter could be negative if a federal shutdown drags on, saying thanksgiving time is one of the hottest times of the year for the economy and if people aren't traveling at that moment, then we really could be looking for a negative quarter.
However, Federal Reserve member Alberta Muslim saying, "We're going to get, I think, a substantial rebound in the first quarter. It's very important that we tread with caution because I believe there's limited room for further reductions without monetary policy becoming overly accommodative." Well, US Treasury yields rose on the prospect of an end to the longest US government shutdown in history.
The US 10year extending gains to 4.15%. The 2-year was around 3.6%. The US dollar index little changed. The Aussie has jumped to 65.4 US cents. Oil prices fascillated as traders weighed up rising supply with high demand from an end to the government shutdown. Brink crude futures up almost half% at close to $64 a barrel.
Copper surged more than 3%. Ion or rose more than 1% to $102 a ton. And gold jumped higher to hit a more than two week high as soft economic data out of the US reinforced expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates next month. Spot gold around 3% higher at close to $4,110 an ounce and risk on settlement has pushed Bitcoin close to $106,000 US.
All right, now let's uh focus on US equities with a particular look at the tech sector. To do that, we are joining uh we're joined by Wed Bush Securities, Dan Ies. Dan, great to have you back on the show. Thanks for joining us. Now, this comes in the wake of course of we've heard those earnings results, quarterly earnings results from most big tech companies, save one of course, Nvidia to come.
Before we get to that, what did you learn from those earnings results, particularly given growing concerns about an AI bubble for me? Look, I mean, the bears have been saying bubble in their hibernation, right, in their caves the last few years. I think to some extent, if you look at the quarter, it's a validation moment for the AI revolution.
I mean, the capback numbers are going to be up 20 30% more than the street thought. look at use cases terms of palunteer what we saw and I think that is now just starting what I view is really the next stage of this AI revolution look I think there's two to three more years left in this tech bull market any talks of an AI bubble I think are way way way premature
all right you actually mentioned Palanteer then interesting that led a bit of a pullback we saw last week so what did you make of those moves just a bit of risk off in that sector Yeah, I think look that sort of started that sell-off that we saw this week because that was an offthecharts quarter in terms of US commercial business.
I mean that beat the street by about 40 50%. And the fact that that stock sold off I think that kind of sent investors heading for the elevators right that was sort of that white knuckle moment. Then of course you have the bur in terms of the tweets worrying about shorts the bubble talk. I just view it as this is just a small speed bump and it's our view as we've talked about.
I mean you have more money being spent next two years than the last 8 to 10 years combined. That's what this is the fourth industrial revolution. I've done Palunteer. We think that's a trillion dollar market cap next two or three years. Dan, let's concentrate on those the capex forecasts then. Interested to to see what you make of it company by company.
Um certainly uh we saw Amazon raising its capex forecast there significantly. Alphabet also bumping up its capex guidance. Um Microsoft though didn't share uh a quarterly fulyear capex estimate but said investments will grow faster in fiscal 26. So what do you make of that? Because I mean, but I guess part of that is the issue for investors just concerned how much money is being spent.
Well, look, it's an AI arms race. I mean, you're talking about essentially a new economy being built from a consumer and enterprise perspective. I mean, look, if you sat here a year ago, big tech capbacks was supposed to be 220 billion. It's going to be actually closer to 380 billion. So, I think next year we could be looking at 550 to 600 billion of big tech capex.
Then you look at sovereigns. You look at rest of the world, I mean, we're talking trillions are gonna be spent. Guess who that's bullish for? Nvidia, bullish for AMD. It's bullish for the hyperscalers, Microsoft, Google, Amazon. It's bullish for Palunteer, Oracle. Speaks to my view. We're talking about in the eyes of AI30.
Second, third, fourth derivatives of AI that are playing out. We see it on the authentication side. As my chairman of Orbs, we see it in terms of human proof. That's really going to be the future when it comes to the AI world. Dan, what do you make of Meta? Those shares did tank after it posted earnings that that missed estimates.
I mean, that was largely because of a one-off tax charge there. Nonetheless, compared with what we're seeing with Alphabet and Amazon, both those companies, they have the cloud businesses of course uh that provide that that immediate path I guess to monetization, not so meta. What are your expectations for Meta?
But I mean, Meta, look, that's good money after good money. I mean, you want to see them ramp up on capbacks. I get that, you know, earnings and free cash will go down next year, but I mean, right now, Zuck is wartime CEO, building out the next sort of franchise and really chapter of Meta. I I think that stock's a gift.
It's a table pounder in my opinion. the way that the stock sold off. I think that the street is I think misinterpreting it. I think underestimating what this growth is going to look like for Met over the coming years. I think that continues to be the right strategy. Dan, are you concerned at all with concentration risk?
I see for instance, Open AI accounted for nearly all of Oracle's cloud computing backlog. Does that should that be of concern? Look, the strong are getting stronger and I think now you could say it's concentrated, but that concentration is going to be reduced over the coming years, but it's really big tech that's essentially building out this AI revolution when you think about the trillions being spent with some of the worries about circular deals with the open AI and things.
So, I view that much more collaboratively. I mean, I don't view that negatively. actually view as an accelerated timeline to they're building out what this fourth industrial revolution is going to be. Dan, let's look ahead to Nvidia. What are your expectations? Of course, with um they they seem to surpass those very high expectations every time.
Get the popcorn out in Australia. Get ready for that. I mean, look, I think you're going to have just a massive earnings beat. I think you're going to see ultimately all this capbacks that we're seeing. Demand the supply 10 to one for Nvidia chips and I think this is going to be a $6 trillion market cap next 12 to 18 months.
A and that's going to be just more of a validation moment for what we see with AI spend. I think that's going to see tech stocks rally 8 to 10% rest of the year. There's only one godfather of AI. That's Jensen. And I continue to believe this AI party. It started at 9:00 p.m. now 10:30 p.m. already goes to 4:00 a.m.
Okay. Well, watch out for that. Dan, I see you've also got an eye on cyber security in particular, a stock like Zcala. What are your expectations there? I cyber security is going to be a huge second third derivative. Look at I mean Zcal I think that's another one being underestimated by the market in terms of what AI is going to bring that I think that could ultimately increase revenue 20 30% that the street's not even factoring in the next few years.
Then look at Crowdstrike. Look at Palo Alto. I mean, it speaks to my view. These are the second, third derivatives playing out across the AI revolution. Cyber security front and center. Dan, I can't um go without asking you about Tesla and Elon Musk and the remuneration package of course that they voted on last week.
What did you make of that? Is that a win-win as you see it? It's a win-win. Look, Musk is Tesla. Tesla is Musk, right? You need Musk at the helm going into the most important chapter ever in Tesla's history, the autonomous and robotics future. And I believe autonomous is worth a trillion dollars alone.
That's why look, you call M the the trillion dollar man. But if he brings four or five trillion to value to shareholders, they'll overwhelmingly want it. And they recognize they need Musk in this position just like Zuck's doing at Meta. I think right now Musk wartime CEO. All right, Dan. Overall then, as we head towards the the end of the year, where do you see tech stocks going?
Obviously, as we mentioned at the top there with those concerns about an AI bubble, do you see the those valuations continuing to move higher? I think it's I think it's get the NASDAQ 25,000 hat out. Get that S&P 7,000 hat out. I mean, that's my view. I mean, tech stocks are going higher. I think they're up another 20 25% next year.
Fed's going to continue to cut. You have a new replacement for PAL which will be a dove. You have seven trillion on the sidelines and we're only in like we've talked about this is still early days of AI and and despite the bubble talk I mean the bears were in the same bubble the last three years and I think they'll continue to yell as we've seen NASDAQ 25,000 28,000 30,000 over the coming years.
Dan, always terrific to catch up with you. Thanks for joining us in Bush Security. All right, let's focus then on where we're likely to start locally and looking to build on yesterday's gains. SPY futures up half a percent. Uh we're also going to focus on some results particularly from CBA Life 360 also out along with Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and a number of AGMs being held today as well.
Join us in a couple of minutes for the open. This program is brought to you by LGT Wealth Management. Welcome to the next chapter in trusted advice, where global strength and deep local relationships shape wealth that lasts for generations. LGT Wealth Management, lgtwm.com.au. I get.
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